Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments.

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture.

Dosimetry for Reference Animals and Plants: current state and prospects.

The enormous diversity of non-human biota is a specific challenge when developing and applying dosimetric models for assessing exposures to flora and fauna from environmental radioactivity. Dosimetric models, adopted by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), provide dose conversion coefficients for a large variety of biota, including the Reference Animals and Plants. The models use a number of simplified approaches, often ignoring presumably insignificant details. Simple body shapes with uniform composition and density, homogeneous internal contamination, a limited set of external radiation sources for terrestrial animals and plants, and truncation of radioactive decay chains are a few examples of simplifying assumptions underlying the dose conversion coefficients included in ICRP Publication 108. However, many specific assessment tasks require dosimetric data for non-standard species or irradiation scenarios. The further development of dosimetric models aims at the implementation of flexible choices of animals and plants, as well as of their irradiation conditions (e.g. trees); more systematic consideration of internal exposures from radionuclides concentrated in specific organs; and task-oriented choice of decay chains based on ICRP Publication 107. An extensive set of non-human dosimetric data might require specific software to facilitate fast, accurate, and flexible selection of pertinent dose conversion coefficients for specific assessment tasks.

Model-derived dose rates per unit concentration of radon in air in a generic plant geometry.

A model for the derivation of dose rates per unit radon concentration in plants was developed in line with the activities of a Task Group of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), aimed at developing more realistic dosimetry for non-human biota. The model considers interception of the unattached and attached fractions of the airborne radon daughters by plant stomata, diffusion of radon gas through stomata, permeation through the plant's epidermis and translocation of deposited activity to plant interior. The endpoint of the model is the derivation of dose conversion coefficients relative to radon gas concentration at ground level. The model predicts that the main contributor to dose is deposition of (214)Po α-activity on the plant surface and that diffusion of radon daughters through the stomata is of relatively minor importance; hence, daily variations have a small effect on total dose.

Doses of external exposure in Jordan house due to gamma-emitting natural radionuclides in building materials.

The use of building materials containing naturally occurring radionuclides as (40)K, (232)Th, and (238)U and their progeny results in external exposures of the residents of such buildings. In the present study, indoor dose rates for a typical Jordan concrete room are calculated using Monte Carlo method. Uniform chemical composition of the walls, floor and ceiling as well as uniform mass concentrations of the radionuclides in walls, floor and ceiling are assumed. Using activity concentrations of natural radionuclides typical for the Jordan houses and assuming them to be in secular equilibrium with their progeny, the maximum annual effective doses are estimated to be 0.16, 0.12 and 0.22 mSv a(-1) for (40)K, (232)Th- and (238)U-series, respectively. In a total, the maximum annual effective indoor dose due to external gamma-radiation is 0.50 mSv a(-1). Additionally, organ dose coefficients are calculated for all organs considered in ICRP Publication 74. Breast, skin and eye lenses have the maximum equivalent dose rate values due to indoor exposures caused by the natural radionuclides, while equivalent dose rates for uterus, colon (LLI) and small intestine are found to be the smallest. More specifically, organ dose rates (nSv a(-1)per Bq kg(-1)) vary from 0.044 to 0.060 for (40)K, from 0.44 to 0.60 for radionuclides from (238)U-series and from 0.60 to 0.81 for radionuclides from (232)Th-series. The obtained organ and effective dose conversion coefficients can be conveniently used in practical dose assessment tasks for the rooms of similar geometry and varying activity concentrations and local-specific occupancy factors.

Methods for calculating dose conversion coefficients for terrestrial and aquatic biota.

Plants and animals may be exposed to ionizing radiation from radionuclides in the environment. This paper describes the underlying data and assumptions to assess doses to biota due to internal and external exposure for a wide range of masses and shapes living in various habitats. A dosimetric module is implemented which is a user-friendly and flexible possibility to assess dose conversion coefficients for aquatic and terrestrial biota. The dose conversion coefficients have been derived for internal and various external exposure scenarios. The dosimetric model is linked to radionuclide decay and emission database, compatible with the ICRP Publication 38, thus providing a capability to compute dose conversion coefficients for any nuclide from the database and its daughter nuclides. The dosimetric module has been integrated into the ERICA Tool, but it can also be used as a stand-alone version.

Uncertainties of internal dose assessment for animals and plants due to non-homogeneously distributed radionuclides.

The dose conversion coefficients (DCCs) for the assessment of internal absorbed dose rate in reference animals and plants have been generally calculated assuming a homogeneous distribution of radionuclides within the body. Realistic scenarios of internal exposure must account for some radionuclides which tend to concentrate in specific organs or tissues. To study the effect of such inhomogeneous distributions, internal DCCs have been calculated assuming both a central and an eccentric point source. The analysis of the results showed that uncertainties of the whole body DCC due to non-homogeneous radionuclide distribution are less than 30% for photons and electrons for all considered organisms. For electrons, the uncertainties are negligible below certain energies, dependent on the size of the organisms. Additionally, the organ doses due to the accumulation of the radionuclide in an organ are also described and organ/whole body doses ratios are estimated.

The ERICA Tool.

The ERICA Tool is a computerised, flexible software system that has a structure based upon the ERICA Integrated Approach to assessing the radiological risk to biota. The Tool guides the user through the assessment process, recording information and decisions and allowing the necessary calculations to be performed to estimate risks to selected animals and plants. Tier 1 assessments are media concentration based and use pre-calculated environmental media concentration limits to estimate risk quotients. Tier 2 calculates dose rates but allows the user to examine and edit most of the parameters used in the calculation including concentration ratios, distribution coefficients, percentage dry weight soil or sediment, dose conversion coefficients, radiation weighting factors and occupancy factors. Tier 3 offers the same flexibility as Tier 2 but allows the option to run the assessment probabilistically if the underling parameter probability distribution functions are defined. Results from the Tool can be put into context using incorporated data on dose-effects relationships and background dose rates.

Tables of dose conversion coefficients for estimating internal and external radiation exposures to terrestrial and aquatic biota.

Dose conversion coefficients (DCCs) for assessment of internal and external radiation exposures to terrestrial and aquatic biota are compiled for 75 radionuclides, for 14 terrestrial and 22 aquatic reference organisms. DCC values for internal exposure are calculated based on a homogeneous distribution of the radionuclides in both types of organisms. DCC values for external exposure of aquatic organisms are calculated for complete immersion in water. For external exposure of terrestrial organisms the soil is considered as a planar and homogenously contaminated volume source with a surface roughness of 3 mm and a thickness of 10 cm, respectively. For in-soil-organisms, DCC values for external exposure are given assuming that these organisms live in the middle of a uniformly contaminated 50 cm-thick soil layer. The tables can be used for assessment of exposures of animals and plants living in various habitats. The list of considered organisms covers the Reference Animals and Plants as adopted by the ICRP.

Inter-comparison of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota.

A number of approaches have been proposed to estimate the exposure of non-human biota to ionizing radiation. This paper reports an inter-comparison of the unweighted absorbed dose rates for the whole organism (compared as dose conversion coefficients, or DCCs) for both internal and external exposure, estimated by 11 of these approaches for selected organisms from the Reference Animals and Plants geometries as proposed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Inter-comparison results indicate that DCCs for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, whereas variation is greater for external exposure DCCs. Where variation among internal DCCs is greatest, it is generally due to different daughter products being included in the DCC of the parent. In the case of external exposures, particularly to low-energy beta-emitters, variations are most likely to be due to different media densities being assumed. On a radionuclide-by-radionuclide basis, the different approaches tend to compare least favourably for (3)H, (14)C and the alpha-emitters. This is consistent with models with different source/target geometry assumptions showing maximum variability in output for the types of radiation having the lowest range across matter. The intercomparison demonstrated that all participating approaches to biota dose calculation are reasonably comparable, despite a range of different assumptions being made.

Ecological half-lives of 90Sr and 137Cs in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

This paper describes the long-term behaviour of (90)Sr and (137)Cs in foods, feeds and a variety of environmental media. The long-term behaviour is quantified by means of the ecological half-life which integrates all processes that cause a decrease of activity in a given medium such as leaching, fixation and erosion. A large number of long-term time series of concentrations of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in these media have been identified and re-evaluated using a standardised statistical procedure to establish reference data sets of ecological half-lives. By example of undisturbed soils and marine water bodies it is shown that the ecological half-life concept is questionable if the distribution of the radionuclide of interest within the medium studied is non-uniform and if mixing and transport processes within this medium, therefore, are of considerable importance during the time period of observation.

A practical method for assessment of dose conversion coefficients for aquatic biota.

Radiological impact assessment for flora and fauna requires adequate dosimetric data. Due to the variability of habitats, shapes, and masses of the non-human biota, assessment of doses is a challenging task. External and internal dose conversion coefficients for photons and electrons have been systematically calculated by Monte Carlo methods for spherical and ellipsoidal shapes in water medium. An interpolation method has been developed to approximate absorbed fractions for elliptical shape organisms from absorbed fractions for spherical shapes with reasonable accuracy. The method allows an evaluation of dose conversion coefficients for arbitrary ellipsoids for photon and electron sources with energies from 10 keV to 5 MeV, and for organism masses in the range from 10(-6) to 10(3) kg. As an example of the application of the method, a set of dose coefficients for aquatic organisms discussed as reference animals and plants in a draft of an up-coming publication of the International Commission on Radiological Protection has been determined.

Application of a generic biosphere model for dose assessments to five European sites.

The BIOMOSA (BIOsphere MOdels for Safety Assessment of radioactive waste disposal) project was part of the EC fifth framework research programme. The main goal of this project was to improve the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal facilities and to enhance the confidence in using biosphere models for performance assessments. The study focused on the development and application of a generic biosphere tool BIOGEM (BIOsphere GEneric Model) using the IAEA BIOMASS reference biosphere methodology, and the comparison between BIOGEM and five site-specific biosphere models. The site-specific models and the generic model were applied to five typical locations in Europe, resulting in estimates of the annual effective individual doses to the critical groups and the ranking of the importance of the exposure pathways for each of the sites. Uncertainty in the results was also estimated by means of stochastic calculations based on variation of the site-specific parameter values. This paper describes the generic model and the deterministic and stochastic results obtained when it was applied to the five sites. Details of the site-specific models and the corresponding results are described in two companion papers. This paper also presents a comparison of the results between the generic model and site-specific models. In general, there was an acceptable agreement of the BIOGEM for both the deterministic and stochastic results with the results from the site-specific models.

A comparative radiological assessment of five European biosphere systems in the context of potential contamination of well water from the hypothetical disposal of radioactive waste.

In the framework of the BioMoSA project for the development of biosphere assessment models for radioactive waste disposal the Reference Biosphere Methodology developed in the IAEA programme BIOMASS was applied to five locations, situated in different European countries. Specific biosphere models were applied to assess the hypothetical contamination of a range of agricultural and environmental pathways and the dose to individuals, following contamination of well water. The results of these site-specific models developed by the different BioMoSA partners, and the individual normalised dose to the exposure groups were compared against each other. Ingestion of drinking water, fruit and vegetables were found to be among the most important pathways for almost all radionuclides. Stochastic calculations revealed that consumption habits, transfer factors, irrigation rates and distribution coefficients (Kd(s)) were the most important parameters that influence the end results. Variations in the confidence intervals were found to be higher for sorbing elements (e.g. (36)Cl, (237)Np, (99)Tc, (238)U, (129)I) than for mobile elements (e.g. (226)Ra, (79)Se, (135)Cs, (231)Pa, (239)Pu). The influence of daughter products, for which the distribution into the biosphere was calculated individually, was also shown to be important. This paper gives a brief overview of the deterministic and stochastic modelling results and the parameter sensitivity. A screening methodology was introduced to identify the most important pathways, simplify a generic biosphere tool and refine the existing models.

Development and comparison of five site-specific biosphere models for safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal.

This paper describes the development and application of site-specific biosphere models that might be used for assessment of potential exposures in the framework of performance assessment studies of nuclear waste disposals. Model development follows the Reference Biosphere Methodology that has been set up in the framework of the BIOMASS study. In this paper, the application is to real sites at five European locations for which environmental and agricultural conditions have been described and characterised. For each of the sites a biosphere model has been developed specifically assuming a release of radionuclides to waters that are used by humans, for example as drinking water for humans and cattle and as irrigation water. Among the ingestion pathways, the intakes of drinking water, cereals, leafy vegetables, potatoes, milk, beef and freshwater fish are included in all models. Annual individual doses were calculated, and uncertainties in the results were estimated by means of stochastic calculations. To enable a comparison, all results were normalised to an activity concentration in groundwater of 1 Bq m(-3) for each of the radionuclides considered ((36)Cl, (79)Se, (99)Tc, (129)I, (135)Cs, (226)Ra, (231)Pa, (230)Th, (237)Np, (239)Pu, and (238)U), i.e. those that are usually most relevant in performance assessment studies of nuclear waste disposals. Although the results do not give answers in absolute terms on potential future exposures, they indicate the spectrum of exposures that might occur in different environments and specify the interaction of environmental conditions, human habits and potential exposure.

A radioecological model for thyroid dose reconstruction of the Belarus population following the Chernobyl accident.

A radioecological model was developed to estimate thyroid exposures of the Belarus population following the Chernobyl accident. The input of the model includes an extensive data set of the (137)Cs activity per unit area deposited during the Chernobyl accident, the rainfall data for different regions of Belarus, the (131)I/(137)Cs ratio in the deposit and the start of the grazing period in Belarus in April/May 1986. The output of the model is the age-dependent thyroid exposure due to the intake of (131)I with fresh milk. Age-dependent average thyroid doses were assessed for selected regions of Belarus. The maximum thyroid doses were estimated for the inhabitants of Gomel oblast where the highest deposition was observed among the regions considered here. The lowest doses were estimated for Vitebsk oblast with the lowest level of depositions. The mean exposures for the oblasts of Grodno, Minsk, Mogilev and Brest were very similar. The results were compared with estimations of thyroid exposure that were based on (131)I measurements in human thyroids, and they are in good agreement. The model may be used for the assessment of thyroid doses in Belarus for areas where no (131)I measurements are available.

Absorbed dose rate conversion coefficients for reference terrestrial biota for external photon and internal exposures.

The paper describes dosimetric models that allow the estimation of average radiation exposures to terrestrial biota due to environmental sources in the soil as well as internal uniform distributions of radionuclides. Simple three-dimensional phantoms for 13 faunal reference organisms are specified. The calculation of absorbed dose per unit source strength for these targets is based on photon and electron transport simulations using the Monte Carlo method. The presented absorbed dose rate conversion coefficients are derived for terrestrial reference species. This allows the assessment of internal exposure as well as external photon exposure depending on the nuclide, habitat, target size and environmental contamination. To enable the application of specific radiation weighting factors for alpha-, low energy beta- (E0 < 10 keV), beta- and gamma-radiations, their partial contributions to the total absorbed dose are provided separately. The coefficients for external exposure are listed for organisms living above the ground for an infinite plane source 3 mm deep in soil, as well as for a horizontally infinite volume source uniformly distributed to a depth of 10 cm. Furthermore, the coefficients are also presented for organisms living in a contaminated 50 cm thick soil layer. A multi-layer canopy model for plants is also described. The conversion coefficients are given for 3H, 14C, 40K, 36Cl, 59,63Ni, 89,90Sr, 94Nb, 99Tc, 106Ru, 129,131I, 134,135,137Cs, 210Po, 210Pb, 226Ra, 227,228,230,231,232,234Th, 234,235,238U, 238,239,240,241Pu, 241Am, 237Np and 242,243,244Cm, together with their

Estimation of internal and external exposures of terrestrial reference organisms to natural radionuclides in the environment.

In this paper, an estimation of the doses absorbed by terrestrial reference organisms due to naturally occurring radionuclides is described. For terrestrial organisms under normal circumstances, external exposure is estimated to be of the order of 0.1-0.4 mGy a(-1), depending on size and habitat, and the main contributor is 40K. Internal background exposures of terrestrial organisms are more variable. Again, 40K is an important contributor giving doses of the order of 0.3 mGy a(-1). The exposures of muscles and plant tissues to uranium, thorium, radium, lead and polonium are lower, but liver, bone and kidney may be exposed at levels of 0.1-1 mGy a(-1) absorbed dose. There can also be significant increases in the received dose under specific environmental conditions as is the case for burrowing mammals that receive relatively high lung doses due to the inhalation of radon and its progeny.

Considerations on the behavior of long-lived radionuclides in the soil.

The migration of radionuclides from waste repositories to the biosphere potentially leads to a contamination of soil. Due to the importance of food production, the mobilisation and accumulation behaviour of long-lived radionuclides in the soil plays a key role in performance assessment studies. In this paper, the main features and processes that control radionuclide behaviour in soil, such as pH, redox potential and sorption to organic and inorganic soil components, are discussed for the radionuclides 36Cl, 79Se, 129I, 99Tc, 237Np and 238U, that are usually most relevant in long-term safety assessments of nuclear waste. The interaction of radionuclide behaviour in soil with environmental factors, such as temperature and humidity as well as farming practices are discussed. The possible impact of future soil development on long-term behaviour in soil are taken into consideration. Due to the physiological constraints of plant growth, appropriate soil conditions for growth will probably not be substantially different from current requirements, bearing in mind that sustainable agriculture strives for optimal plant growth. Against this background, present-day parameters may in general be considered appropriate for roughly estimating the behaviour of radionuclides in the soil-plant system.

Model for food chain transfer and dose assessment in areas of the Slovak Republic.

The radio-ecological model ECOSYS-87 developed for German ecological conditions, has been adapted to the conditions of two sub-regions in the Slovak Republic. In particular, the selection of plant varieties used for animal feeding, the plants' growing cycles and harvests, the animal feeding practices and the human consumption rates were subjected to adaptation. Measurements of caesium and iodine radioactivity in soil, plants and animal products that have mainly been performed in the vicinity of the Bohunice nuclear power plant after the Chernobyl accident, are compared with the results of the adapted model. Data from various locations with dry, mixed or predominantly wet deposition show in general good agreement.