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Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is the vegetation cover in equilibrium with climate, that would exist at a given location if not impacted by human activities. PNV is useful for raising public awareness about land degradation and for estimating land potential. This paper presents results of assessing machine learning algorithms-neural networks (nnet package), random forest (ranger), gradient boosting (gbm), K-nearest neighborhood (class) and Cubist-for operational mapping of PNV. Three case studies were considered: (1) global distribution of biomes based on the BIOME 6000 data set (8,057 modern pollen-based site reconstructions), (2) distribution of forest tree taxa in Europe based on detailed occurrence records (1,546,435 ground observations), and (3) global monthly fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) values (30,301 randomly-sampled points). A stack of 160 global maps representing biophysical conditions over land, including atmospheric, climatic, relief, and lithologic variables, were used as explanatory variables. The overall results indicate that random forest gives the overall best performance. The highest accuracy for predicting BIOME 6000 classes (20) was estimated to be between 33% (with spatial cross-validation) and 68% (simple random sub-setting), with the most important predictors being total annual precipitation, monthly temperatures, and bioclimatic layers. Predicting forest tree species (73) resulted in mapping accuracy of 25%, with the most important predictors being monthly cloud fraction, mean annual and monthly temperatures, and elevation. Regression models for FAPAR (monthly images) gave an R-square of 90% with the most important predictors being total annual precipitation, monthly cloud fraction, CHELSA bioclimatic layers, and month of the year, respectively. Further developments of PNV mapping could include using all GBIF records to map the global distribution of plant species at different taxonomic levels. This methodology could also be extended to dynamic modeling of PNV, so that future climate scenarios can be incorporated. Global maps of biomes, FAPAR and tree species at one km spatial resolution are available for download via http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QQHCIK.
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Plant functional traits provide information about adaptations to climate and environmental conditions, and can be used to explore the existence of alternative plant strategies within ecosystems. Trait data are also increasingly being used to provide parameter estimates for vegetation models. Here we present a new database of plant functional traits from China. Most global climate and vegetation types can be found in China, and thus the database is relevant for global modeling. The China Plant Trait Database contains information on morphometric, physical, chemical, and photosynthetic traits from 122 sites spanning the range from boreal to tropical, and from deserts and steppes through woodlands and forests, including montane vegetation. Data collection at each site was based either on sampling the dominant species or on a stratified sampling of each ecosystem layer. The database contains information on 1,215 unique species, though many species have been sampled at multiple sites. The original field identifications have been taxonomically standardized to the Flora of China. Similarly, derived photosynthetic traits, such as electron-transport and carboxylation capacities, were calculated using a standardized method. To facilitate trait-environment analyses, the database also contains detailed climate and vegetation information for each site. The data set is released under a Creative Commons BY license. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article, recognizing the hard work that went into collecting the data and the authors' willingness to make it publicly available.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Isoprene is the most important volatile organic compound emitted by land plants in terms of abundance and environmental effects. Controls on isoprene emission rates include light, temperature, water supply and CO2 concentration. A need to quantify these controls has long been recognized. There are already models that give realistic results, but they are complex, highly empirical and require separate responses to different drivers. This study sets out to find a simpler, unifying principle. METHODS: A simple model is presented based on the idea of balancing demands for reducing power (derived from photosynthetic electron transport) in primary metabolism versus the secondary pathway that leads to the synthesis of isoprene. This model's ability to account for key features in a variety of experimental data sets is assessed. KEY RESULTS: The model simultaneously predicts the fundamental responses observed in short-term experiments, namely: (1) the decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission; (2) a continued increase in isoprene emission with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at high PAR, after carbon assimilation has saturated; (3) a maximum of isoprene emission at low internal CO2 concentration (ci) and an asymptotic decline thereafter with increasing ci; (4) maintenance of high isoprene emissions when carbon assimilation is restricted by drought; and (5) a temperature optimum higher than that of photosynthesis, but lower than that of isoprene synthase activity. CONCLUSIONS: A simple model was used to test the hypothesis that reducing power available to the synthesis pathway for isoprene varies according to the extent to which the needs of carbon assimilation are satisfied. Despite its simplicity the model explains much in terms of the observed response of isoprene to external drivers as well as the observed decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission. The concept has the potential to improve global-scale modelling of vegetation isoprene emission.
