Phytoplankton spring bloom in the NW Mediterranean Sea under climate change.

The spring phytoplankton bloom is the main event influencing ecosystem richness in the pelagic realm of the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NW Med Sea). The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the achievement of a good ecological status for the pelagic habitat, and phytoplankton bloom phenology has been used as an indicator of the status of offshore waters. In this work we investigate interannual changes in the timing and magnitude of the phytoplankton bloom in the NW Med Sea, using phenological metrics. Daily maps of Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2022 obtained by CMEMS were used to analyse bloom phenological metrics in 5 representative sites in the area. Chlorophyll-a data from 1998 to 2007 were used for determining the climatological behaviour, while 2008-2022 was identified as the study period. For this latter period, yearly spring bloom were identified and interannual variability and overall trends were analysed for each of the phenological metrics considered. Winter oceanographic and meteorological data were analysed to investigate possible correlations with the subsequent spring bloom. The frequency of anomalous years is increasing, both for bloom intensity and sea temperature. Bloom analysis revealed a negative trend only in some areas, but a steep decrease in the last 7 years was noticeable for all sites considered. Correlations of the Chl-a concentration during bloom with oceanographic variables revealed the importance of temperature, both marine and atmospheric, while Mixed Layer Depth played a lesser role. This work contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of an area already under severe threat from human activities.

Rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection with a tilted axis.

We numerically explore the dynamics of an incompressible fluid heated from below, bounded by free-slip horizontal plates and periodic lateral boundary conditions, subject to rapid rotation about a distant axis that is tilted with respect to the gravity vector. The angle ϕ between the rotation axis and the horizontal plane measures the tilting of the rotation axis; it can be taken as a proxy for latitude if we think of a local Cartesian representation of the convective dynamics in a rotating fluid shell. The results of the simulations indicate the existence of three different convective regimes, depending on the value of ϕ: (1) sheared, intermittent large-scale winds in the direction perpendicular to the plane defined by the gravity and rotation vectors, when rotation is "horizontal" (ϕ=0^{∘}); (2) a large-scale cyclonic vortex tilted along the rotation axis, when the angle between the rotation axis and the gravity vector is relatively small (ϕ between about 45^{∘} and 90^{∘}); and (3) a new intermediate regime characterized by vertically sheared large-scale winds perpendicular to both gravity and rotation. In this regime, the winds are organized in bands that are tilted along the rotation axis, with unit horizontal wave number in the plane defined by gravity and rotation at values of ϕ less than about 60^{∘}. This intermediate solution, studied for the first time in this work, is characterized by weaker vertical heat transport than the cases with large-scale vortices. For intermediate values of ϕ (between about 45^{∘} and 60^{∘}), the banded, sheared solution coexists with the large-scale vortex solution, with different initial conditions leading to one or the other dynamical behavior. A discussion of the possible implications of these results for the dynamics of rapidly rotating planetary atmospheres is provided.

Generation of Large-Scale Winds in Horizontally Anisotropic Convection.

We simulate three-dimensional, horizontally periodic Rayleigh-Bénard convection, confined between free-slip horizontal plates and rotating about a distant horizontal axis. When both the temperature difference between the plates and the rotation rate are sufficiently large, a strong horizontal wind is generated that is perpendicular to both the rotation vector and the gravity vector. The wind is turbulent, large-scale, and vertically sheared. Horizontal anisotropy, engendered here by rotation, appears necessary for such wind generation. Most of the kinetic energy of the flow resides in the wind, and the vertical turbulent heat flux is much lower on average than when there is no wind.

The effect of voluntary iodine prophylaxis in a small rural community: the Pescopagano survey 15 years later.

CONTEXT: Iodine deficiency disorders are a major public health problem, and programs have been implemented to improve iodine nutrition. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to verify the effects of voluntary iodine prophylaxis in a small rural community (Pescopagano, Italy). DESIGN: The design of the study was the evaluation of the prevalence of thyroid disorders 15 years after a previous survey conducted before iodine prophylaxis. SETTING: The setting for this study was a general community survey. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand one hundred forty-eight residents were examined in 2010 and 1411 in 1995. RESULTS: In 2010, 757 of 1148 subjects (65.9%) routinely used iodized salt, urinary iodine excretion being significantly higher than in 1955 (median 98.0 µg/L, vs 55.0 µg/L, P < .0001). The prevalence of goiter was lower in 2010 than in 1995 (25.8% vs 46.1%, P < .0001), mainly due to the reduction of diffuse goiter (10.3% vs 34.0%, P < .0001). In 2010 vs 1995, thyroid autonomy in subjects younger than 45 years old (3 of 579, 0.5% vs 25 of 1010, 2.5% P = .004) and nonautoimmune hyperthyroidism in subjects older than 45 years old (8 of 569, 1.4% vs 18 of 401, 4.5%, P = .03) were less frequent. The prevalence of hypothyroidism was higher in 2010 vs 1995 (5.0% vs 2.8%, P = .005), mainly because of an increased frequency of subclinical hypothyroidism in subjects younger than 15 years old (7 of 83, 8.4% vs 0 of 419, 0.0%, P < .0001). Accordingly, serum thyroid autoantibodies (19.5% vs 12.6%; P < .0001) and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (14.5% vs 3.5%; P < .0001) were more frequent in 2010 than in 1995. CONCLUSIONS: In the present work, the role of voluntary iodine prophylaxis was assessed in a small rural community relatively segregated, in which genetic and other environmental factors have not substantially changed between the 2 surveys. Iodine intake strongly affected the pattern of thyroid diseases, but the benefits of correcting iodine deficiency (decreased prevalence of goiter and thyroid autonomy in younger subjects and reduced frequency of nonautoimmune hyperthyroidism in older subjects) far outweighs the risk of development of thyroid autoimmunity and mild hypothyroidism in youngsters.

The effects of abrupt topography on plankton dynamics.

Plankton population dynamics in the upper layer of the ocean depends on upwelling processes that bring nutrients from deeper waters. In turn, these depend on the structure of the vertical velocity field. In coastal areas and in oceanic regions characterized by the presence of strong submarine topographic features, the variable bottom topography induces significant effects on vertical velocities and upwelling/downwelling patterns. As a consequence, large plankton and fish abundances are frequently observed above seamounts, canyons and steep continental shelves. In this work, the dynamics of an NPZ (nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton) system is numerically studied by coupling the ecosystem model with a quasi two-dimensional (2D) fluid model with topography. At variance with classical 2D approaches, this formulation allows for an explicit expression of the vertical motions produced when fluid columns are squeezed and stretched as they experience changes of depth. Thus, input or output of nutrients at the surface are associated with fluid motion over the bottom topography. We examine the dynamics of a cyclonic vortex over two basic topographies: a steep escarpment and a submarine mountain. We show that plankton abundance over the escarpment is modulated by the passing of topographic Rossby waves, generated by the vortex-topography interaction. In such configuration, advection effects driven by the flow over the escarpment are of limited relevance for the dynamics of biological fields. By contrast, we find that the flow resulting from the interaction of a vortex with a seamount is sufficiently strong and persistent to allow for a remarkable increase of nutrients, and a corresponding enhancement of phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. Over the seamount, advection effects associated with trapped flow perturbations around the summit play an essential role.

Patterned vegetation and rainfall intermittency.

We study a mathematical model for the dynamics of patterned dryland vegetation in the presence of rainfall intermittency, adopting a spatially explicit approach. We find that most results found for constant precipitation carry over to the case of intermittent rainfall, with a few important novelties. For intermittent precipitation, the functional forms of the water uptake and consequently of the vegetation growth rate play an important role. Nonlinear, concave-up forms of water uptake as a function of soil moisture lead to a beneficial effect of rainfall intermittency, with a stronger effect when vegetation feedbacks are absent. The results obtained with the explicit-space model employed here are in keeping with those provided by simpler, implicit-space approaches, and provide a more complete view of vegetation dynamics in arid ecosystems.

Plankton cycles disguised by turbulent advection.

Mathematical models used to represent plankton dynamics often display limit-cycle behavior in a range of realistic parameter values. However, experimental data do not show evidence of plankton oscillations besides externally driven seasonal blooms, casting doubts on the validity of the models themselves. In this work we show that spatial-temporal variability, coupled with advection by mesoscale turbulence, can disguise limit-cycle behavior to the point that it cannot be detected in fixed-point measurements of plankton abundance. The results presented here have more general implications as they indicate that the behavior of ecosystem models in the presence of advection can be very different from that occurring for homogeneous conditions. Care should thus be exercised in drawing general conclusions from the analysis of homogeneous ecosystem models.

A mathematical model of plants as ecosystem engineers.

Understanding the structure and dynamics of plant communities in water-limited systems often calls for the identification of ecosystem engineers--key species that modify the landscape, redistribute resources and facilitate the growth of other species. Shrubs are excellent examples; they self-organize to form patterns of mesic patches which provide habitats for herbaceous species. In this paper we present a mathematical model for studying ecosystem engineering by woody plant species in drylands. The model captures various feedbacks between biomass and water including water uptake by plants' roots and increased water infiltration at vegetation patches. Both the uptake and the infiltration feedbacks act as mechanisms for vegetation pattern formation, but have opposite effects on the water resource; the former depletes the soil-water content under a vegetation patch, whereas the latter acts to increase it. Varying the relative strength of the two feedbacks we find a trade-off between the engineering capacity of a plant species and its resilience to disturbances. We further identify two basic soil-water distributions associated with engineering at the single patch level, hump-shaped and ring-shaped, and discuss the niches they form for herbaceous species. Finally, we study how pattern transitions at the landscape level feedback to the single patch level by affecting engineering strength.

Ecosystem engineers: from pattern formation to habitat creation.

Habitat and species richness in drylands are affected by the dynamics of a few key species, termed "ecosystem engineers." These species modulate the landscape and redistribute the water resources so as to allow the introduction of other species. A mathematical model is developed for a pair of ecosystem engineers commonly found in drylands: plants forming vegetation patterns and cyanobacteria forming soil crusts. The model highlights conditions for habitat creation and for high habitat richness, and suggests a novel mechanism for species loss events as a result of environmental changes.

Modelling the survival of bacteria in drylands: the advantage of being dormant.

We introduce a simple mathematical model for the description of 'dormancy', a survival strategy used by some bacterial populations that are intermittently exposed to external stress. We focus on the case of the cyanobacterial crust in drylands, exposed to severe water shortage, and compare the fate of ideal populations that are, respectively, capable or incapable of becoming dormant. The results of the simple model introduced here indicate that under a constant, even though low, supply of water the dormant strategy does not provide any benefit and it can, instead, decrease the chances of survival of the population. The situation is reversed for highly intermittent external stress, due to the presence of prolonged periods of dry conditions intermingled with short periods of intense precipitation. In this case, dormancy allows for the survival of the population during the dry periods. In contrast, bacteria that are incapable of turning into a dormant state cannot overcome the difficult times. The model also rationalizes why dormant bacteria, such as those composing the cyanobacterial crust in the desert, are extremely sensitive to other disturbances, such as trampling cattle.

Dynamics of a small neutrally buoyant sphere in a fluid and targeting in Hamiltonian systems.

We show that, even in the most favorable case, the motion of a small spherical tracer suspended in a fluid of the same density may differ from the corresponding motion of an ideal passive particle. We demonstrate furthermore how its dynamics may be applied to target trajectories in Hamiltonian systems.

Mesoscale vortices and the paradox of the plankton.

Coexistence of competitive species is severely limited by the availability of resources and the characteristics of the environment. In particular, the so-called 'competitive exclusion principle' states that, at equilibrium, the number of coexisting species cannot be larger than the number of resources for which they compete. However, many in situ observations have revealed prolonged coexistence of a large number of competitive plankton species, a phenomenon known as 'the paradox of the plankton'. Here we investigate this problem and show that ocean mesoscale vortices generate transport barriers and incomplete horizontal mixing, allowing for a prolonged survival of the less-fit species, even for fully homogeneous resource distributions. In such a situation, the temporarily less-fit plankton species are protected from competition by the action of the vortices.

Transient chaotic mixing during a baroclinic life cycle.

We discuss how atmospheric eddies affect transport and mixing of tracers at midlatitudes. To this purpose, we study baroclinic life cycles in a simple dynamical model of the atmosphere. We consider the trapping properties of the developing eddies and the characteristics of meridional transport, and we identify regions of increased mixing. Although the flow is in principle three-dimensional, we illustrate how some of the concepts developed in the study of two-dimensional chaotic advection provide useful information on tracer dynamics in more complicated flows. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics.

Synchronized family dynamics in globally coupled maps.

The dynamics of a globally coupled, logistic map lattice is explored over a parameter plane consisting of the coupling strength, varepsilon, and the map parameter, a. By considering simple periodic orbits of relatively small lattices, and then an extensive set of initial-value calculations, the phenomenology of solutions over the parameter plane is broadly classified. The lattice possesses many stable solutions, except for sufficiently large coupling strengths, where the lattice elements always synchronize, and for small map parameter, where only simple fixed points are found. For smaller varepsilon and larger a, there is a portion of the parameter plane in which chaotic, asynchronous lattices are found. Over much of the parameter plane, lattices converge to states in which the maps are partitioned into a number of synchronized families. The dynamics and stability of two-family states (solutions partitioned into two families) are explored in detail. (c) 1999 American Institute of Physics.

Scaling regimes in the distribution of galaxies.

If we treat the galaxies in published redshift catalogues as point sets, we may determine the generalized dimensions of these sets by standard means, outlined here. For galaxy separations up to about 5 Mpc, we find the dimensions of the CfA galaxy set to be about 1.2, with only a modest indication of multifractality. For larger scales, out to about 30 Mpc, there is also good scaling with a dimension of about 1.8. For even larger scales, the data seem too sparse to be conclusive, but we fmd that the dimension is climbing as the scales increase. We report simulations that suggest a rationalization of such measurements, namely that in the intermediate range the scaling behavior is dominated by flat structures (pancakes) and that the results on the smallest scales are a reflection of the formation of density singularities.

Cosmic lacunarity.

The present distribution of galaxies in space is a remnant of their formation and interaction. On a large enough scale, we may represent the galaxies as a set of points and quantify the structures in this set by its generalized dimensions [Beck and Schlogl, Thermodynamics of Chaotic Systems (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986); Paladin and Vulpiani, Phys. Rep. 156, 147 (1987)]. The results of such evaluation are often taken to be evidence of a fractal (or multifractal) distribution of galaxies. However, those results, for some scales, may also reveal the presence of singularities formed in the gravitational processes that produce structure in the galaxy distribution. To try to make some decision about this issue, we look for the more subtle galactic lacunarity. We believe that this quantity is discernible in the currently available data and that it provides important evidence on the galaxy formation process. (c) 1997 American Institute of Physics.