Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Distribution patterns in the native vascular flora of Iceland.

The aim of our study was to reveal biogeographical patterns in the native vascular flora of Iceland and to define ecological factors responsible for these patterns. We analysed dataset of more than 500,000 records containing information on the occurrence of vascular plants. Analysis of ecological factors included climatic (derived from WORLDCLIM data), topographic (calculated from digital elevation model) and geological (bedrock characteristics) variables. Spherical k-means clustering and principal component analysis were used to detect biogeographical patterns and to study the factors responsible for them. We defined 10 biotic elements exhibiting different biogeographical patterns. We showed that climatic (temperature-related) and topographic variables were the most important factors contributing to the spatial patterns within the Icelandic vascular flora and that these patterns are almost completely independent of edaphic factors (bedrock type). Our study is the first one to analyse the biogeographical differentiation of the native vascular flora of Iceland.

Gating of aquaporins by heavy metals in Allium cepa L. epidermal cells.

Changes in the water permeability, aquaporin (AQP) activity, of leaf cells were investigated in response to different heavy metals (Zn(2+), Pb(2+), Cd(2+), Hg(2+)). The cell pressure probe experiments were performed on onion epidermal cells as a model system. Heavy metal solutions at different concentrations (0.05 µM-2 mM) were used in our experiments. We showed that the investigated metal ions can be arranged in order of decreasing toxicity (expressed as a decrease in water permeability) as follows: Hg>Cd>Pb>Zn. Our results showed that ß-mercaptoethanol treatment (10 mM solution) partially reverses the effect of AQP gating. The magnitude of this reverse differed depending on the metal and its concentration. The time course studies of the process showed that the gating of AQPs occurred within the first 10 min after the application of a metal. We also showed that after 20-40 min from the onset of metal treatment, the water flow through AQPs stabilized and remained constant. We observed that irrespective of the metal applied, the effect of AQP gating can be recorded within the first 10 min after the administration of metal ions. More generally, our results indicate that the toxic effects of investigated metal ions on the cellular level may involve AQP gating.