Modelling of marine radionuclide dispersion in IAEA MODARIA program: Lessons learnt from the Baltic Sea and Fukushima scenarios.

State-of-the art dispersion models were applied to simulate (137)Cs dispersion from Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster fallout in the Baltic Sea and from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant releases in the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 tsunami. Models were of different nature, from box to full three-dimensional models, and included water/sediment interactions. Agreement between models was very good in the Baltic. In the case of Fukushima, results from models could be considered to be in acceptable agreement only after a model harmonization process consisting of using exactly the same forcing (water circulation and parameters) in all models. It was found that the dynamics of the considered system (magnitude and variability of currents) was essential in obtaining a good agreement between models. The difficulties in developing operative models for decision-making support in these dynamic environments were highlighted. Three stages which should be considered after an emergency, each of them requiring specific modelling approaches, have been defined. They are the emergency, the post-emergency and the long-term phases.

The sensitivity of different environments to radioactive contamination.

This paper describes modelling calculations carried out to determine the sensitivity of various rural and semi-natural environments to radionuclide contamination by (137)Cs, (90)Sr, and (131)I released during a major nuclear accident. Depositions of 1000 Bq/m(3) were assumed for each radionuclide. Four broad types of environments were considered: agricultural, forest or tundra, freshwater aquatic, and coastal marine. A number of different models were applied to each environment. The annual dose to a human population receiving most or all of its food and drinking water from a given environment was taken as a broad measure of sensitivity. The results demonstrated that environmental sensitivity was highly radionuclide specific, with (137)Cs generally giving the highest doses during the first year, especially for adults, in terrestrial and freshwater pathways. However, in coastal marine environments, (131)I and (239)Pu were more significant. Sensitivity was time dependent with doses for the first year dominating those for the 2nd and 10th years after deposition. In agricultural environments the ingestion dose from (137)Cs was higher for adults than other age groups, whereas for (90)Sr and (131)I, the ingestion dose was highest for infants. The dependence of sensitivity on social and economic factors such as individual living habits, food consumption preferences, and agricultural practices is discussed.

TRS Cs CRwo-water values for the marine environment: analysis, applications and comparisons.

A new TRS document on Transfer of radionuclides to Wildlife has compiled equilibrium CR(wo-media) values for a variety of radionuclides and ecosystems. Assessment tools such as the ERICA Tool use equilibrium whole organism concentration ratios (CR(wo-media)) to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in wildlife from those in media (e.g. water). The aim of this paper is to compare and contrast model predictions of doses from (137)Cs to marine organisms using three different approaches: (i) the ERICA Tool utilising the new TRS values to estimate internal and external doses to reference organisms for the Black sea and the Aegean Sea and for the sea close to the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant. (ii) a hydrodynamic site specific model for seawater for parts of the Aegean Sea, Greece which estimates radionuclide concentrations using site specific data and (iii) a biokinetic model for fish applied to the Fukushima releases to the Pacific. The advantages and limitations of these approaches are discussed with respect to determining doses to pelagic fish. The applicability of the three approaches will vary with the objective of an assessment. The site specific model can predict variation in (137)Cs with depth and uses site specific CR values. The application of the biokinetic model to predicted (137)Cs activity concentrations in seawater and fish due to near coastal inputs from Fukushima Dai-ichi showed that the maximum internal dose-rates in fish attributable to (137)Cs would be substantially lower than those determined using equilibrium assumptions in ERICA but the accumulative doses over 100 days were similar.