Long-term risk for end-stage kidney disease and death in a large population-based cohort.

Knowledge of metabolic risk factors for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the general population is limited when considering the competing event death in risk analysis. The aim of our prospective observational study was to investigate how blood pressure and metabolic factors might influence the risks for ESKD and death before ESKD in a large Austrian population-based cohort with long-term follow-up. 177,255 participants (53.8% women; mean age 42.5 years) were recruited between 1988 and 2005 and linked to the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the National Mortality Registry. Over a mean follow-up of 16 years 358 participants reached ESKD and 19,512 participants died. Applying fully adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models elevated fasting blood glucose, hypertension, hypertrigylceridemia and hypercholesterolemia were associated with a higher relative risk for ESKD than for death before ESKD, whereas elevated γ-glutamyltransferase was associated with an increased relative risk of death but not ESKD. Results were similar using continuous or categorical exposure variable measures in the general cohort but differed in selected high-risk populations. These findings might help improve the design of renal risk factor modification trials and kidney disease awareness and prevention programs in the general population, which may ultimately decrease the burden of ESKD.

Anthropometric and Metabolic Risk Factors for ESRD Are Disease-Specific: Results from a Large Population-Based Cohort Study in Austria.

BACKGROUND: Anthropometric and metabolic risk factors for all-cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) may vary in their impact depending on the specific primary renal disease. METHODS: In this Austrian population-based prospective cohort study (n = 185,341; 53.9% women) the following data were collected between 1985 and 2005: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG) from 1988, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and smoking status. These data were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry to identify ESRD patients. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause ESRD as well as for cause-specific ESRD due to the following primary renal diseases: autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), vascular nephropathy (VN), diabetic nephropathy (DN) and other diseases (OD). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 participants developed ESRD (ADPKD 36, VN 97, DN 86, and OD 184). All parameters except TG and GGT were significantly associated with all-cause ESRD risk. Particular cause-specific ESRD risk factor patterns were found: for ADPKD increased risk from hypertension (HR 11.55); for VN from smoking (HR 1.81), hypertension (HR 2.37), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 9.27); for DN from smoking (HR 1.77), BMI (≥30 vs. 18.5-24.9 kg/m2: HR 7.55), FBG (≥6.94 vs. <5.55 mmol/L: HR 7.67), hypertension (HR 1.08), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 2.02), GGT (HR 2.14); and for OD from hypertension (HR 2.29), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 6.99) and TC (≥6.22 vs. <5.18 mmol/L: HR 1.56). CONCLUSIONS: Particular anthropometric and metabolic ESRD risk factors differ in importance depending on the primary renal disease. This needs to be considered for future preventive and therapeutic strategies addressing cause-specific ESRD.

Sex- and Time-Dependent Patterns in Risk Factors of End-Stage Renal Disease: A Large Austrian Cohort with up to 20 Years of Follow-Up.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between metabolic factors and End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and quantified the magnitude of their influence dependent on sex and time of exposure up to 20 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to determine risk factors for the development of ESRD. From 1988 to 2005 185,341 persons (53.9% women) participated in the "Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme" (VHM&PP). Data on body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic (BPsys) and diastolic (BPdia) blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and smoking status were collected. Data of the population-based VHM&PP were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD, stratified by sex and 5-year time intervals. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 patients (39.1% women) developed ESRD. Significant risk factors were: BMI (per 1 kg/m2) HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.06), FBG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.09 (1.05-1.12), BPsys (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.10 (1.07-1.14), BPdia (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.09 (1.03-1.15), TG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.07 (1.02-1.13), TC (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.22 (1.13-1.32). We observed a sex-specific risk pattern with an increased ESRD risk for men for increasing TG and smoking, and for women for increasing BMI and GGT. In time interval analyses BPsys and TC were associated with early ESRD onset, whereas BMI, FBG, BPdia and GGT were associated with later onset. CONCLUSIONS: Anthropometric and metabolic factors are differentially associated with the long-term risk for ESRD in a sex- and time-dependent manner. Consideration of these patterns in preventive and therapeutic strategies could have an impact on ESRD incidence.