Spatial and Economic Proximity of Cigarette Sales to School Children in Mongolia.

Background: The Western Pacific Region has the highest rate of cigarette smoking in the world. In this region, Mongolia has ratified the WHO FCTC treaty and, as part of treaty implementation, has monitored school tobacco use in children using the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) and 2019 GYTS. Our objective was to examine the spatial and economic factors associated with cigarette use in schoolchildren of Mongolia. Methods: The 2014 and 2019 GYTS are the most recent and comprehensive national surveys of tobacco use in schoolchildren in Mongolia and are cross-sectional, stratified, multi-stage cluster surveys of 13-15 year-old schoolchildren (7,298 in 2014, 4,146 in 2019) selected from urban and rural schools. For each survey, we conducted logistic regression modelling to examine whether spatial (proximity of cigarette sales to schools), economic (pocket money available to school children), and other environmental/contextual factors were predictors of cigarette use (all, single sticks) in schoolchildren. Results: We found that 1)the prevalence of vendors selling cigarettes near schools increased from 65% in the 2014 GYTS to 94% in the 2019 GYTS, 2) sales of cigarettes near schools were associated with increased current smoking of all cigarettes and this effect increased from a marginal 31% increase in odds in 2014 (OR [95% confidence interval(CI)]=1.31 [0.99, 1.73]) to a 416% increase in odds in 2019 (OR [95% CI]=5.16[3.31, 8.05]), 3) sales of cigarettes near schools were associated with a substantial increase in odds of smoking single cigarettes in 2014 (OR [95% CI]=1.87 [1.14,3.06]) and in 2019 (OR[95% CI]=2.70 [1.42, 5.12]). We also found that smoking of all cigarettes was higher when student pocket money exceeded the price of the cigarette pack (approximately 1.8 USD) and also when parents and/or peers were smokers. Conclusions: Despite the 2012 National Tobacco Laws banning sales of cigarettes and single cigarettes to schoolchildren near schools, the most recent national surveys (2014-2019) have shown that these sales are increasing. We provide new findings indicating that despite the higher pricing of cigarette packs (relative to the region), illicit sales of single cigarettes are targeting schoolchildren near their schools.

Reducing the Burden of Disease Through Tobacco Taxes in Mongolia: A Health Impact Analysis Using a Dynamic Public Health Model.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Smoking is the leading risk factor for many chronic diseases. The quantitative analysis of potential health gains from reduced smoking is important for establishing priorities in Mongolia's health policy. This study quantifies the effect of tobacco-tax increases on future smoking prevalence and the associated smoking-related burden of disease in Mongolia. METHODS: The dynamic model for health impact assessment (DYNAMO-HIA) tool was used. The most recent data were used as input for evaluating tobacco-taxation scenarios. Demographic data were taken from the Mongolian Statistical Information Services. Smoking data came from a representative population-based STEPS survey, and smoking-related disease data were obtained from the health-information database of Mongolia's National Health Center. Simulation was used to evaluate various levels of one-time price increases on tobacco products (25% and 75%) in Mongolia. Conservative interpretation suggests that the population will eventually adjust to the higher tobacco price and return to baseline smoking behaviors. RESULTS: Over a three-year period, smoking prevalence would be reduced by 1.2% points, corresponding to almost 40 thousand smokers at the population level for a price increase of 75%, compared to the baseline scenario. Projected health benefits of this scenario suggest that more than 137 thousand quality adjusted of life years would be gained by avoiding smoking-related diseases within a population of three million over a 30-year period. DISCUSSION: Prevention through effective tobacco-control policy could yield considerable gains in population health in Mongolia. Compared to current policy, tax increases must be higher to have a significant effect on population health. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco taxation is an effective policy for reducing the harm of tobacco smoking, while benefiting population health in countries where the tobacco epidemic is still in an early stage. Smoking prevalence and smoking behaviors in these countries differ from those in Western countries. Reducing the uptake of smoking among young people could be a particularly worthwhile benefit of tobacco-tax increases.

Trends and differences in alcohol-related mortality rates by gender and by prefectures in Japan between 1995 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify increases in 100 % alcohol-related death (ARD) and any differences among prefectures between 1995-2016. METHODS: Data from the national death registry on 100 % ARDs between 1995-2016 were extracted. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 100 % ARD by year, gender, and gender ratio were calculated. After dividing the period into 1995-2005 and 2006-2016, the ASMRs of 100 % ARDs were calculated by prefecture. Additionally, based on geographical area, municipality size, or annual alcohol sales per adult in each prefecture, prefectures were divided into groups and analysed. RESULTS: In total, 95,455 deaths were caused by 100 % ARD from 1995-2016. Men's ASMRs of 100 % ARD markedly increased from 4.0 per 100,000 in 1995 to 5.2 between 2010 and 2013, and gradually declined to 5.0 in 2016. Women's ASMRs increased steadily from 0.3 in 1995 to 0.8 in 2016. The gender ratio of ASMRs decreased from 13.3 in 1995 to 6.3 in 2016. The ASMR of one prefecture, which had reduced alcohol tax rates, was higher for both genders. Both men's and women's ASMRs were higher in the prefectures that had higher alcohol sales (6.3 [5.0-7.7] and 0.8 [0.6-1.1], respectively) compared to the prefectures that had lower alcohol sales (4.3 [4.0-4.7] p < 0.001 and 0.6 [0.5-0.6] p = 0.045, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The ASMR of 100 % ARD remained high for men and increased for women, and prefecture-level higher alcohol sales and lower tax rates correlated with the higher mortality rate. Increasing prices and taxes and reducing alcohol sales may contribute to a decrease in alcohol-related mortality.