Predicting current and future habitat of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change.

Climate change is among the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss, threatening up to 15-30% of described species by the end of the twenty-first century. We estimated the current suitable habitat and forecasted future distribution ranges of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change scenarios. We collected occurrence records of Indian pangolin using burrow counts, remote camera records and previously published literature in Pakistan during 2021-2023. We downloaded bioclimatic data for current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) climate scenarios from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of Indian pangolin, then computed the amount of habitat lost, gained, and unchanged across periods. We obtained 560 Indian pangolin occurrences overall, 175 during the study, and 385 from our literature search. Model accuracy was very good (AUC = 0.885, TSS = 0.695), and jackknife tests of variable importance showed that the contribution of annual mean temperature (bio1) was greatest (33.4%), followed by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio-12, 29.3%), temperature seasonality (bio 4, 25.9%), and precipitation seasonality (bio 15, 11.5%). The maxent model predicted that during the current time period (1970-2000) highly suitable habitat for Indian pangolin was (7270 km2, 2.2%), followed by moderately suitable (12,418 km2, 3.7%), less suitable (49,846 km2, 14.8%), and unsuitable habitat (268,355 km2, 79.4%). Highly suitable habitat decreased in the western part of the study area under most SSPs and in the central parts it declined under all SSPs and in future time periods. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of the Indian pangolin was greatest (26.97%) under SSP 585 followed by SSP 126 (23.67%) during the time 2061-2080. The gain in suitable habitat of Indian pangolin was less than that of losses on average which ranged between 1.91 and 13.11% under all SSPs during all time periods. While the stable habitat of the Indian pangolin ranged between 64.60 and 83.85% under all SSPs during all time periods. Our study provides the current and future habitat ranges of Indian pangolin in the face of a changing climate. The findings of our study could be helpful for policymakers to set up conservation strategies for Indian pangolin in Pakistan.

Niche partitioning by sympatric civets in the Himalayan foothills of Pakistan.

Niche overlap between sympatric species can indicate the extent of interspecific competition. Sympatric competing species can exhibit spatial, temporal, and dietary adjustments to reduce competition. We investigated spatial, temporal, and dietary niche overlap of sympatric Asian palm civet (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus) and small Indian civet ( Viverricula indica), in and around Pir Lasura National Park, Pakistan. We used remote cameras to determine the frequency and timing of detections to estimate spatial and temporal overlap, and prey remains from scats to estimate dietary overlap. We collected scat samples of Asian palm civet (n = 108) and small Indian civet (n = 44) for dietary analysis. We found low spatial (Oij = 0.32) and temporal (Δ = 0.39) overlap, but high dietary niche overlap (0.9) between these two civet species. Both civet species were detected at only 11 camera sites and small Indian civets were detected most frequently during 2:00-5:00 h and 8:00-10:00 h, whereas Asian palm civets detections were greatest during 20:00-2:00 h. The overall niche breadth of Asian palm civet was slightly narrower (L = 9.69, Lst = 0.31) than that of the small Indian civet (L = 10, Lst = 0.52). We identified 27 dietary items (15 plant, 12 animal) from scats of Asian palm civet including Himalayan pear (Pyrus pashia; 27%), Indian gerbil (Tatera indica; 10%), Rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta; 4%), and insects (5%). Scat analysis of small Indian civets revealed 17 prey items (eight plant, nine animal) including Himalayan pear (24%), domestic poultry (15%), Indian gerbil (11%), and house mouse (Mus musculus; 5%). Both civet species consumed fruits of cultivated orchard species. Spatial and temporal partitioning of landscapes containing diverse foods appears to facilitate coexistence between Asian palm civets and small Indian civets.

Assessment of bias in morphological identification of carnivore scats confirmed with molecular scatology in north-eastern Himalayan region of Pakistan.

Scats are often used to study ecological parameters of carnivore species. However, field identification of carnivore scats, based on their morphological characteristics, becomes difficult if many carnivore species are distributed in the same area. We assessed error rates in morphological identification of five sympatric carnivores' scats in north-eastern Himalayan region of Pakistan during 2013-2017. A sample of 149 scats were subjected to molecular identification using fecal DNA. We used a confusion matrix to assess different types of errors associated with carnivore scat identification. We were able to amplify DNA from 96.6% (n = 144) of scats. Based on field identification of carnivore scats, we had predicted that out of 144 scats: 11 (7.6%) scats were from common leopard, 38 (26.4%) from red fox, 29 (20.1%) from Asiatic jackal, 37 (25.7%) from yellow throated martin, 14 (9.7%) from Asian palm civet and 15 (10.4%) from small Indian civet. However, molecular identification revealed and confirmed nine were scats (6.24%) from common leopard, 40 (27.8 %) from red fox, 21 (14.6%) from Asiatic jackal, 45 (31.25%) from Asian palm civet, 12 (8.3%) scats from small Indian civet, while 11 scats (7.6%) were found from Canis lupus Spp., three (2%) from dog, one (0.7 %) scat sample from porcupine, and two (1.4%) from rhesus monkey. Misidentification rate was highest for Asian palm civet (25.7%), followed by red fox (11.1%) and Asiatic jackal (9.7%) but least for common leopard scats (4.2%). The results specific to our study area concur with previous studies that have recommended that carnivore monitoring programs utilize molecular identification of predator scats. Using only morphological identification of scats can be misleading and may result in wrong management decisions.