Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team.

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%-70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

Social costs of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is currently spreading across the world at an alarming rate, resulting in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Amidst this crisis, tourism scholars are directing their attention to communities at tourist destinations, looking at their safety and well-being and the costs that they will bear due to the cessation of tourism activity. This article describes residents' perceptions of the risks posed by tourism activity, and estimates their willingness to pay to reduce public health risks based on hypothetical scenarios, using the triple-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method. The social costs in three urban destinations are assessed and compared. Based on the findings, suggestions are made for appropriate post-pandemic recovery actions by local authorities and tourism organizations.