Impacts of information quantity and display formats on driving behaviors in a connected vehicle environment.

The emerging connected vehicle (CV) technologies facilitate the development of integrated advanced driver assistance systems (ADASs), with which various functions are coordinated in a comprehensive framework. However, challenges arise in enabling drivers to perceive important information with minimal distractions when multiple messages are simultaneously provided by integrated ADASs. To this end, this study introduces three types of human-machine interfaces (HMIs) for an integrated ADAS: 1) three messages using a visual display only, 2) four messages using a visual display only, and 3) three messages using visual plus auditory displays. Meanwhile, the differences in driving performance across three HMI types are examined to investigate the impacts of information quantity and display formats on driving behaviors. Additionally, variations in drivers' responses to the three HMI types are examined. Driving behaviors of 51 drivers with respect to three HMI types are investigated in eight field testing scenarios. These scenarios include warnings for rear-end collision, lateral collision, forward collision, lane-change, and curve speed, as well as notifications for emergency events downstream, the specified speed limit, and car-following behaviors. Results indicate that, compared to a visual display only, presenting three messages through visual and auditory displays enhances driving performance in four typical scenarios. Compared to the presentation of three messages, a visual display offering four messages improves driving performance in rear-end collision warning scenarios but diminishes the performance in lane-change scenarios. Additionally, the relationship between information quantity and display formats shown on HMIs and driving performance can be moderated by drivers' gender, occupation, driving experience, annual driving distance, and safety attitudes. Findings are indicative to designers in automotive industries in developing HMIs for future CVs.

Examining road safety impacts of Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA) system.

Mobility and environmental benefits of Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA) systems have been reported by many previous research studies, however, there is insufficient knowledge on the safety implications of such an application. For safe deployment of GLOSA system, it is most critical to identify and address potential safety issues in the design process. It can be argued that implementation of GLOSA system can improve safety by reducing traffic conflicts associated with the interrupted traffic flow at signalised intersections. However, more research findings are needed from field and simulation based studies to evaluate the impacts on safety under a variety of real-world scenarios. As part of the LEVITATE (Societal Level Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles) project under European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme, the main objective of this study is to examine the safety impacts of GLOSA under mixed traffic compositions with varying market penetration rates (MPR) of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). A calibrated and validated microsimulation model (developed in Aimsun) of the greater Manchester area was used for this study where three signalised intersections in a corridor were identified for implementing GLOSA system. An improved algorithm was developed by identifying the potential issues/limitations in some of the GLOSA algorithms found in literature. Behaviours of CAVs were modelled based on the findings of a comprehensive literature review. Safety analysis was performed through processing the simulated vehicular trajectories in the surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM) by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The surrogate safety assessment results showed small improvement in safety with the GLOSA implementation at multiple intersections in the test network only at low MPR (20%) scenarios of CAVs, as compared to the respective without GLOSA scenarios. No or rather slightly lower improvement in safety was observed with GLOSA implementation under mixed fleet scenarios with 40 % or higher 1st Generation or 2nd Generation CAVs, as compared to the respective scenarios without GLOSA. The implementation of GLOSA system was also found to have some impact on the traffic conflict types (although not consistent across all MPR scenarios), where rear-end conflicts were found to decrease while a slight increase was observed in lane-change conflicts.

Network-wide safety impacts of dedicated lanes for connected and autonomous vehicles.

Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM) enabled by Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) has potential to change future transport systems. The findings from previous studies suggest that these technologies will improve traffic flow, reduce travel time and delays. Furthermore, these CAVs will be safer compared to existing vehicles. As these vehicles may have the ability to travel at a higher speed and with shorter headways, it has been argued that infrastructure-based measures are required to optimise traffic flow and road user comfort. One of these measures is the use of a dedicated lane for CAVs on urban highways and arterials and constitutes the focus of this research. As the potential impact on safety is unclear, the present study aims to evaluate the safety impacts of dedicated lanes for CAVs. A calibrated and validated microsimulation model developed in AIMSUN was used to simulate and produce safety results. These results were analysed with the help of the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). The model includes human-driven vehicles (HDVs), 1st generation and 2nd generation autonomous vehicles (AVs) with different sets of parameters leading to different movement behaviour. The model uses a variety of cases in which a dedicated lane is provided at different type of lanes (inner and outer) of highways to understand the safety effects. The model also tries to understand the minimum required market penetration rate (MPR) of CAVs for a better movement of traffic on dedicated lanes. It was observed in the models that although at low penetration rates of CAVs (around 20%) dedicated lanes might not be advantageous, a reduction of 53% to 58% in traffic conflicts is achieved with the introduction of dedicated lanes in high CAV MPRs. In addition, traffic crashes estimated from traffic conflicts are reduced up to 48% with the CAVs. The simulation results revealed that with dedicated lane, the combination of 40-40-20 (i.e., 40% human-driven - 40% 1st generation AVs- 20% 2nd generation AVs) could be the optimum MPR for CAVs to achieve the best safety benefits. The findings in this study provide useful insight into the safety impacts of dedicated lanes for CAVs and could be used to develop a policy support tool for local authorities and practitioners.

Pedestrian safety in an automated driving environment: Calibrating and evaluating the responsibility-sensitive safety model.

The severity of vehicle-pedestrian crashes has prompted authorities worldwide to concentrate on improving pedestrian safety. The situation has only become more urgent with the approach of automated driving scenarios. The Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS) model, introduced by Mobileye®, is a rigorous mathematical model developed to facilitate the safe operation of automated vehicles. The RSS model has been calibrated for several vehicle conflict scenarios; however, it has not yet been tested for pedestrian safety. Therefore, this study calibrates and evaluates the RSS model for pedestrian safety using data from the Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study. Nearly 400 vehicle-pedestrian conflicts were extracted from 8,000 trips by the threshold and manual check method, and then divided into 16 basic scenarios in three categories. Because crossing conflicts were the most serious and frequent, they were reproduced in MATLAB's Simulink with each vehicle replaced with a virtual automated vehicle loaded with the RSS controller module. With the objectives of maximizing safety and minimizing conservativeness, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II was applied to calibrate the RSS model for vehicle-pedestrian conflicts. The safety performance of the RSS model was then compared with that of the commonly used active safety function, autonomous emergency braking (AEB), and with human driving. Findings verified that the RSS model was safer in vehicle-pedestrian conflicts than both the AEB model and human driving. Its performance also yielded the best test results in producing smooth and stable driving. This study provides a reliable reference for the safe control of automated vehicles with respect to pedestrians.

Modelling the effects of fuel price changes on road traffic collisions in the European Union using panel data.

Road deaths globally have steadily climbed in recent years with the increase in motorisation. Yet in many economically developed countries they have actually fallen. Explanations for this reduction include the role of improved vehicle and highway design, better enforcement and the impact of the economic downturn, whilst there is also some evidence that microeconomic factors like changes in road fuel prices could be contributing to this situation. This paper investigates the effects of fuel prices on road collision frequency in countries where fuel prices are relatively high. Monthly panel data from 28 EU member states from 2005 to 2018 was analysed for both petrol and diesel prices, and for fatalities, total injury collisions and total collisions using: 1) random effect negative binomial (RENB); and 2) population-averaged negative binomial using generalised estimating equations (GEE). The findings indicate that higher fuel prices lead to lower road traffic deaths, injury collisions and overall collisions across all 28 EU member states. Thus, for every 10 percent increase in fuel prices, there will be a 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent reduction in fatalities for petrol and diesel models, respectively. Similarly, total collisions fall by 1.4 percent for petrol and 1.2 for diesel models, and total casualties fall by 1.6 percent for petrol and 1.4 percent for diesel with every 10 percent rise in fuel price. These results could be due to drivers reducing speed to achieve better fuel efficiency and to people driving less to save money - in particular younger, riskier drivers - hence reducing exposure. These findings suggest that policies replacing petrol and diesel vehicles with alternative fuel sources over the next 20 years could have negative repercussions for road safety if not adequately considered.

Investigating the role of preference variation in the perceptions of railway passengers in Great Britain.

This study explores the factors associated with passenger satisfaction on the UK railways. To uncover taste variation, the data was segmented into three homogeneous groups of passengers through a latent class ordered logit model, whereby the class allocation was based on observed personal and trip characteristics. The findings suggest that there is significant variation in the impact of service attributes on overall satisfaction across the segments, 'class a', 'class b' and 'class c'. Class a (15% of the sample) consists of moderately dissatisfied to highly dissatisfied passengers, for whom 'punctuality/reliability' is most impactful on overall satisfaction. Respondents in this class are much more likely to experience adverse service conditions such as delays or crowding conditions. Class b (32% of the sample) consists of passenger who are quite critical and moderately satisfied, for whom 'hedonic' factors such as 'upkeep and repair of the train' and 'seat comfort' were most impactful. Finally, class c (53% of the sample) consists of passengers that are generally satisfied, and for whom the 'value for money of the ticket price' is most impactful on overall satisfaction. Interestingly, for both 'class b' and 'class c', 'punctuality/reliability' plays a more limited role in determining overall satisfaction compared to 'class a'. This suggests that the role of 'punctuality/reliability' in determining overall satisfaction is more complex than presented in the literature thus far. Finally, unobserved taste variation plays an important role in the model, as the class allocation is not always easily linked to observed groups in the data. This paper thus highlights the importance of accounting for unobserved and systematic sources of heterogeneity in the data and could provide useful insights for analysts, policy makers and practitioners, to provide more targeted strategies to improve passenger satisfaction.

Developing a new real-time traffic safety management framework for urban expressways utilizing reinforcement learning tree.

One of the main objectives of an urban traffic control system is to reduce the crash frequency and the loss caused by these crashes on urban expressways. Real-time crash risk prediction (RTCRP) is an essential technique to identify crash precursors so as to take proactive measures to smooth traffic fluctuations. In addition, automatic incident detection (AID) is another important approach to timely detect an incident so as to design countermeasures that reduce any negative impacts on traffic dynamics. With the introduction of disruptive technologies in transport, highly disaggregated large datasets have started to emerge for modelling while existing modelling techniques utilized in RTCRP and AID may not be able to accurately predict traffic crashes in real-time. Therefore, this paper proposes a state-of-the-art reinforcement learning tree (RLT) approach to develop RTCRP model and automatic crash detection (ACD) model similar to AID, and further utilizes it to build a real-time traffic safety management framework for urban expressways with the input of online traffic data streaming. Recorded traffic flow data and historical crash data were extracted and integrated to develop and implement both RTCRP models and ACD models. The prediction results were compared with the frequently used logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and deep neural network (DNN) and a sensitivity analysis for variable effects was conducted. The results confirm that RLT outperforms LR, SVM and DNN in developing RTCRP and ACD models. At the cost of 10% false-alarm rate, about 96% of the crashes were predicted or detected correctly by the proposed framework. The results also indicate that: i) collecting more data is helpful to improve the predictive performance and approximatively a minimum sample size of 20 observations per variable is reasonable for training RLT models; and ii) obtaining more factors is beneficial to improve the predictive performance. With the RLT approach, it was demonstrated that selected important variables also have the capability to provide reasonable predictive performance.

Road safety under the environment of intelligent connected vehicles.

The emergence of Intelligent Connected Vehicles (ICVs) is expected to drastically change various fields in the transportation system-especially traffic safety of road users. Therefore, this special issue aims to facilitate a forum for transportation researchers fostering an exchange of research ideas and experience in traffic safety with a specific focus on operations, planning and management of ICVs. The issue contains thirty-six papers from seven different countries. Topics are classified into seven categories: (1) Driving behavior in the ICV environment; (2) Safety evaluation of ICVs; (3) ICV driving/management strategies; (4) New framework for ICV safety analysis; (5) ICV safety for vulnerable road users; (6) Perception towards ICVs; and (7) Security issues relating to ICVs. The papers are concisely introduced in this editorial. All the papers were invited to present at the International Symposium on Accident Analysis & Prevention in 2021 (ISAAP 2021) and the symposium was successfully held. The research conducted in these articles reveal challenges and future directions in the area of ICVs that include further developing novel methodologies and algorithms for collision-free trajectories of ICVs, testing diverse scenarios in complex environments with mixed traffic, and addressing inherent safety risks of specific vulnerable road users (e.g., older road users, bicyclists, riders of micro-mobility vehicles).

When COVID-19 came to town: Measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on footfall on six high streets in England.

Town centres in the economically developed world have struggled in recent years to attract sufficient visitors to remain economically sustainable. However, decline has not been uniform, and there is considerable variation in how different town centres have coped with these challenges. The arrival of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic public health emergency in early 2020 has provided an additional reason for people to avoid urban centres for a sustained period. This paper investigates the impact of coronavirus on footfall in six town centres in England that exhibit different characteristics. It presents individual time series intervention model results based on data collected from Wi-fi footfall monitoring equipment and secondary sources over a 2-year period to understand the significance of the pandemic on different types of town centre environment. The data show that footfall levels fell by 57%-75% as a result of the lockdown applied in March 2020 and have subsequently recovered at different rates as the restrictions have been lifted. The results indicate that the smaller centres modelled have tended to be less impacted by the pandemic, with one possible explanation being that they are much less dependent on serving longer-distance commuters and on visitors making much more discretionary trips from further afield. It also suggests that recovery might take longer than previously thought. Overall, this is the first paper to study the interplay between footfall and resilience (as opposed to vitality) within the town centre context and to provide detailed observations on the impact of the first wave of coronavirus on town centres' activity.

Validating a Traffic Conflict Prediction Technique for Motorways Using a Simulation Approach.

With the ever-increasing advancements in the technology of driver assistant systems, there is a need for a comprehensive way to identify traffic conflicts to avoid collisions. Although significant research efforts have been devoted to traffic conflict techniques applied for junctions, there is dearth of research on these methods for motorways. This paper presents the validation of a traffic conflict prediction algorithm applied to a motorway scenario in a simulated environment. An automatic video analysis system was developed to identify lane change and rear-end conflicts as ground truth. Using these conflicts, the prediction ability of the traffic conflict technique was validated in an integrated simulation framework. This framework consisted of a sub-microscopic simulator, which provided an appropriate testbed to accurately simulate the components of an intelligent vehicle, and a microscopic traffic simulator able to generate the surrounding traffic. Results from this framework show that for a 10% false alarm rate, approximately 80% and 73% of rear-end and lane change conflicts were accurately predicted, respectively. Despite the fact that the algorithm was not trained using the virtual data, the sensitivity was high. This highlights the transferability of the algorithm to similar road networks, providing a benchmark for the identification of traffic conflict and a relevant step for developing safety management strategies for autonomous vehicles.

Transfer learning for spatio-temporal transferability of real-time crash prediction models.

Real-time crash prediction is a heavily studied area given their potential applications in proactive traffic safety management in which a plethora of statistical and machine learning (ML) models have been developed to predict traffic crashes in real-time. However, one of the fundamental issues relating to the application of these models is spatio-temporal transferability. The present paper attempts to address this gap of knowledge by combining Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) and transfer learning to examine the transferability of real-time crash prediction models under an extremely imbalanced data setting. Initially, a baseline model was developed using Deep Neural Network (DNN) with crash and microscopic traffic data collected from M1 Motorway in the UK in 2017. The dataset utilised in the baseline model is naturally imbalanced with 257 crash cases and 16,359,163 non-crash cases. To overcome data imbalance issue, Wasserstein GAN (WGAN) was utilised to generate synthetic crash data. Non-crash data were randomly undersampled due to computational limitations. The calibrated model was then applied to predict traffic crashes for five other datasets obtained from M1 (2018), M4 (2017 & 2018 separately) and M6 Motorway (2017 & 2018 separately) by using transfer learning. Model transferability was compared with standalone models and direct transfer from the baseline model. The study revealed that direct transfer is not feasible. However, models become transferable temporally, spatially, and spatio-temporally if transfer learning is applied. The predictability of the transferred models outperformed existing studies by achieving high Area Under Curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.69 and 0.95. The best transferred model can predict nearly 95% crashes with only a 5% false alarm rate by tuning thresholds. Furthermore, the performances of transferred models are on par with or better than the standalone model. The findings of this study proves that transfer learning can improve model transferability under extremely imbalanced settings which helps traffic engineers in developing highly transferable models in future.

Developing personalised braking and steering thresholds for driver support systems from SHRP2 NDS data.

Examining the relationships between the factors associated with the crash development enabled the realisation of driver support systems aiming to proactively avert and control crash causation at various points within the crash sequence. Developing such systems requires new insights in personalised pre-crash driver behaviour with respect to braking and steering to develop crash prevention strategies. Therefore, the current study utilises Strategic Highway Research Program 2 Naturalistic Driving Studies (SHRP2 NDS) data to investigate personalised steering and braking thresholds by examining the last stage of a crash sequence. More specifically, this paper carried out an in-depth examination of braking and steering manoeuvres observed in the final 30 s prior to safety critical events. Two algorithms were developed to extract braking and steering events by examining deceleration and yaw rate and another developed and applied to determine the sequence of the manoeuvres. Based on the analysis, thresholds for detecting emerging situations were recommended. The investigation of driver behaviour before the safety critical events, provides valuable insights into the transition from normal driving to safety critical scenarios. The results indicate that 20% of the drivers did not react to the impending event suggesting that they were not aware of the imminent safety critical situation. Future development of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) can focus on individual drivers' needs with tailored activation thresholds. The developed algorithms can facilitate driver behaviour and safety analysis for NDS while the thresholds recommended could be exploited for the design of new driver support systems.

Influence of familiarity with traffic regulations on delivery riders' e-bike crashes and helmet use: Two mediator ordered logit models.

Micro-mobility vehicles such as electric bicycles, or e-bikes, are becoming one of the essential transportation modes in metropolitan areas, and most deliveries in large cities are dependent on them. Due to the e-bike's popularity and vulnerability, e-bike crash occurrence has become a major traffic safety problem in many cities across the world; finding the most important human factors affecting e-bike safety has thus been an important recent issue in traffic safety analysis. Since delivery riders are a key group of e-bike users, and since helmet use plays a crucial role in reducing the severity of a crash, this study conducted a city-wide online survey to analyze the helmet usage of 6,941 delivery riders in Shanghai, China. To determine the in-depth mechanisms influencing helmet use and e-bike crash occurrence, including the direct and indirect effects of the relevant factors, two mediator ordered logistic regression models were employed. The mediator ordered logistic model was compared with the traditional logistic regression model, and was found to be superior for modeling indirect as well as direct influencing factors. Results indicate that riders' familiarity with traffic regulations (FTR) is an extremely important variable mediating between the independent variables of riders' educational level and age, and the dependent variables of helmet use and e-bike crashes. Improving riders' FTR can consequently increase helmet use and decrease crash occurrence. Authorities can apply these findings to develop appropriate countermeasures, particularly in legislation and rider training, to improve e-bike safety.

The extended theory of planned behavior considering heterogeneity under a connected vehicle environment: A case of uncontrolled non-signalized intersections.

With the emergence of connected vehicle (CV) technology, there is a doubt whether CVs can improve driver intentions and behaviors, and thus protect them from accidents with the provision of real-time information. In order to understand the possible impacts of the real-time information provided by CV technology on drivers, this paper aims to develop a model which considers the heterogeneity between drivers with the aid of the extended theory of planned behavior. At the uncontrolled non-signalized intersections, a stated preference (SP) questionnaire survey was conducted to build the dataset consisting of 1001 drivers. Based on the collected dataset, the proposed model examines the relationships between subjective norms, attitudes, risk perceptions, perceived behavioral control and driving intentions, and studies how such driving intentions are simultaneously related to driver characteristics and experiences in the CV environment. Furthermore, driver groups which are homogenous with respect to personality traits are formed, and then are employed to analyze the heterogeneity in responses to driving intentions. Four key findings are obtained when analyzing driver responses to the real-time information provided by CV technology: 1) the proposed H-ETPB model is verified with a good fitness measure; 2) irrespective to driver personality traits, attitudes and perceived behavioral control have a direct and indirect association with driving intentions to accelerate; 3) driving intentions of high-neurotic drivers to accelerate are significantly related to subjective norms, while that of low-neurotic drivers are not; 4) elder high-neurotic drivers, and low-neurotic drivers who have unstable salaries or ever joined in online car hailing service have a strong intention in accelerating. The findings of this study could provide the theoretical framework to optimize traffic performance and information design, as well as provide in-vehicle personalized information service in the CV and CAV environments and assist traffic authorities to design the most acceptable traffic rules for different drivers at an uncontrolled non-signalized intersection.

A Bayesian Tobit quantile regression approach for naturalistic longitudinal driving capability assessment.

Given the severe traffic safety issue, tremendous efforts have been devoted to identify the crash contributing factors for developing and implementing safety improvement countermeasures. According to the study findings, driving behaviors have attributed to the majority crash occurrence, among which inadequate driving capability is a key factor. Therefore, a number of studies have been conducted for developing techniques associated with the driving capability assessment and its various improvement. However, the conventional assessment approaches, such as driving license exams and vehicle insurance quotes, have only focused on basic driving skill evaluations or aggregated driving style classifications, which failed to quantify driving capability from the safety perspective with respect to the complex driving scenarios. In this study, a novel longitudinal driving capacity assessment and ranking approach was developed with naturalistic driving data. Two Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS) based driving capability indicators from the perspectives of risk exposure and severity were first proposed. Then, Bayesian Tobit quantile regression (BTQR) models were introduced to explore the relationships between driving capability indicators with trip level characteristics from the aspects of travel features, operational conditions, and roadway characteristics. The modeling results concluded that nighttime driving and higher average speed would lead to higher longitudinal collision risk and its severity. Besides, the BTQR models have provided varying factors significances among different quantile levels, for instance, driving duration is only significant at high quantiles for the driving capability indicators, implying that duration only affects drivers with large longitudinal risk exposures and strong close following tendencies. Furthermore, the case studies provided how to deploy the developed model to obtain the relative longitudinal driving capability rankings. Finally, the model applications from the aspects of commercial fleet safety management and comparing the autonomous vehicles' longitudinal driving behaviors with human drivers have been discussed.

Predicting real-time traffic conflicts using deep learning.

Recently, technologies for predicting traffic conflicts in real-time have been gaining momentum due to their proactive nature of application and the growing implementation of ADAS technology in intelligent vehicles. In ADAS, machine learning classifiers are utilised to predict potential traffic conflicts by analysing data from in-vehicle sensors. In most cases, a condition is classified as a traffic conflict when a safety surrogate (e.g. time-to-collision, TTC) crosses a pre-defined threshold. This approach, however, largely ignores other factors that influence traffic conflicts such as speed variance, traffic density, speed and weather conditions. Considering all these factors in detecting traffic conflicts is rather complex as it requires an integration and mining of heterodox data, the unavailability of traffic conflicts and conflict prediction models capable of extracting meaningful and accurate information in a timely manner. In addition, the model has to effectively handle large imbalanced data. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents a centralised digital architecture and employs a Deep Learning methodology to predict traffic conflicts. Highly disaggregated traffic data and in-vehicle sensors data from an instrumented vehicle are collected from a section of the UK M1 motorway to build the model. Traffic conflicts are identified by a Regional-Convolution Neural Network (R-CNN) model which detects lane markings and tracks vehicles from images captured by a single front-facing camera. This data is then integrated with traffic variables and calculated safety surrogate measures (SSMs) via a centralised digital architecture to develop a series of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models to predict these traffic conflicts. The results indicate that TTC, as expected, varies by speed, weather and traffic density and the best DNN model provides an accuracy of 94% making it reliable to employ in ADAS technology as proactive safety management strategies. Furthermore, by exchanging this traffic conflict awareness data, connected vehicles (CVs) can mitigate the risk of traffic collisions.

Do higher fuel prices help reduce road traffic accidents?

Road traffic accidents have decreased in most developed nations over the last decade. This has been attributed to improvements in vehicle and road design, medical technology and care, and driver education and training. Recent evidence however indicates that fuel price changes also have a significant impact on road traffic accidents through other mediating factors such as reductions in driver exposure through less car travel and more fuel-efficient driving e.g. speed reduction on high-speed roads. So far though, no study has examined the effects of changing fuel prices on road traffic accidents in a country such as Great Britain where fuel prices are kept artificially high for public policy reasons. Consequently, this study was designed to quantify the effects of fuel price on road traffic accident frequency through changes and adjustments in travel behaviour. For this purpose, weekly fuel prices (between 2005-2015) have been used to study the effects on road traffic accidents using the Prais-Winsten model of first order autoregressive (AR1) and the Box and Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA). The study found that with every 1% increase in fuel price there is a 0.4% reduction in the number of fatal road traffic accidents. In light of this, one concern raised was that recent UK government plans to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 may also risk a rise in fatal road traffic accidents, and hence this will need to be addressed.

A new integrated collision risk assessment methodology for autonomous vehicles.

Real-time risk assessment of autonomous driving at tactical and operational levels is extremely challenging since both contextual and circumferential factors should concurrently be considered. Recent methods have started to simultaneously treat the context of the traffic environment along with vehicle dynamics. In particular, interaction-aware motion models that take inter-vehicle dependencies into account by utilizing the Bayesian interference are employed to mutually control multiple factors. However, communications between vehicles are often assumed and the developed models are required many parameters to be tuned. Consequently, they are computationally very demanding. Even in the cases where these desiderata are fulfilled, current approaches cannot cope with a large volume of sequential data from organically changing traffic scenarios, especially in highly complex operational environments such as dense urban areas with heterogeneous road users. To overcome these limitations, this paper develops a new risk assessment methodology that integrates a network-level collision estimate with a vehicle-based risk estimate in real-time under the joint framework of interaction-aware motion models and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN). Following the formulation and explanation of the required functions, machine learning classifiers were utilized for the real-time network-level collision prediction and the results were then incorporated into the integrated DBN model for predicting collision probabilities in real-time. Results indicated an enhancement of the interaction-aware model by up to 10%, when traffic conditions are deemed as collision-prone. Hence, it was concluded that a well-calibrated collision prediction classifier provides a crucial hint for better risk perception by autonomous vehicles.

Evaluating the safety impact of connected and autonomous vehicles on motorways.

Recent technological advancements bring the Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) era closer to reality. CAVs have the potential to vastly improve road safety by taking the human driver out of the driving task. However, the evaluation of their safety impacts has been a major challenge due to the lack of real-world CAV exposure data. Studies that attempt to simulate CAVs by using either a single or integrating multiple simulation platforms have limitations, and in most cases, consider a small element of a network (e.g. a junction) and do not perform safety evaluations due to inherent complexity. This paper addresses this problem by developing a decision-making CAV control algorithm in the simulation software VISSIM, using its External Driver Model Application Programming Interface. More specifically, the developed CAV control algorithm allows a CAV, for the first time, to have longitudinal control, search adjacent vehicles, identify nearby CAVs and make lateral decisions based on a ruleset associated with motorway traffic operations. A motorway corridor within M1 in England is designed in VISSIM and employed to implement the CAV control algorithm. Five simulation models are created, one for each weekday. The baseline models (i.e. CAV market penetration: 0%) are calibrated and validated using real-world minute-level inductive loop detector data and also data collected from a radar-equipped vehicle. The safety evaluation of the proposed algorithm is conducted using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). The results show that CAVs bring about compelling benefit to road safety as traffic conflicts significantly reduce even at relatively low market penetration rates. Specifically, estimated traffic conflicts were reduced by 12-47%, 50-80%, 82-92% and 90-94% for 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% CAV penetration rates respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the presence of CAVs ensured efficient traffic flow.

Real-time crash prediction models: State-of-the-art, design pathways and ubiquitous requirements.

Proactive traffic safety management systems can monitor traffic conditions in real-time, identify the formation of unsafe traffic dynamics, and implement suitable interventions to bring unsafe conditions back to normal traffic situations. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, sensor fusion and algorithms have brought about the introduction of a proactive safety management system closer to reality. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to have a reliable crash prediction model that takes real-time traffic data as input and evaluates their association with crash risk. Since the early 21st century, several studies have focused on developing such models. Although the idea has considerably matured over time, the endeavours have been quite discrete and fragmented at best because the fundamental aspects of the overall modelling approach substantially vary. Therefore, a number of transitional challenges have to be identified and subsequently addressed before a ubiquitous proactive safety management system can be formulated, designed and implemented in real-world scenarios. This manuscript conducts a comprehensive review of existing real-time crash prediction models with the aim of illustrating the state-of-the-art and systematically synthesizing the thoughts presented in existing studies in order to facilitate its translation from an idea into a ready to use technology. Towards that journey, it conducts a systematic review by applying various text mining methods and topic modelling. Based on the findings, this paper ascertains the development pathways followed in various studies, formulates the ubiquitous design requirements of such models from existing studies and knowledge of similar systems. Finally, this study evaluates the universality and design compatibility of existing models. This paper is, therefore, expected to serve as a one stop knowledge source for facilitating a faster transition from the idea of real-time crash prediction models to a real-world operational proactive traffic safety management system.