Health system description and assessment: a scoping review of templates for systematic analyses.

BACKGROUND: Understanding and comparing health systems is key for cross-country learning and health system strengthening. Templates help to develop standardised and coherent descriptions and assessments of health systems, which then allow meaningful analyses and comparisons. Our scoping review aims to provide an overview of existing templates, their content and the way data is presented. MAIN BODY: Based on the WHO building blocks framework, we defined templates as having (1) an overall framework, (2) a list of indicators or topics, and (3) instructions for authors, while covering (4) the design of the health system, (5) an assessment of health system performance, and (6) should cover the entire health system. We conducted a scoping review of grey literature published between 2000 and 2023 to identify templates. The content of the identified templates was screened, analyzed and compared. We found 12 documents that met our inclusion criteria. The building block `health financing´ is covered in all 12 templates; and many templates cover ´service delivery´ and ´health workforce'. Health system performance is frequently assessed with regard to 'access and coverage', 'quality and safety', and 'financial protection'. Most templates do not cover 'responsiveness' and 'efficiency'. Seven templates combine quantitative and qualitative data, three are mostly quantitative, and two are primarily qualitative. Templates cover data and information that is mostly relevant for specific groups of countries, e.g. a particular geographical region, or for high or for low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Templates for LMICs rely more on survey-based indicators than administrative data. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first scoping review of templates for standardized descriptions of health systems and assessments of their performance. The implications are that (1) templates can help analyze health systems across countries while accounting for context; (2) template-guided analyses of health systems could underpin national health policies, strategies, and plans; (3) organizations developing templates could learn from approaches of other templates; and (4) more research is needed on how to improve templates to better achieve their goals. Our findings provide an overview and help identify the most important aspects and topics to look at when comparing and analyzing health systems, and how data are commonly presented. The templates were created by organizations with different agendas and target audiences, and with different end products in mind. Comprehensive health systems analyses and comparisons require production of quantitative indicators and complementing them with qualitative information to build a holistic picture. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:   Not applicable.

Digital technologies for health financing in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Universal health coverage (UHC) is a global priority, ensuring equitable access to quality healthcare services without financial hardship. Many countries face challenges in progressing towards UHC. Health financing is pivotal for advancing UHC by raising revenues, enabling risk-sharing through pooling of funds and allocating resources. Digital technologies in the healthcare sector offer promising opportunities for health systems. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), digital technologies for health financing (DTHF) have gained traction, supporting these three main functions of health financing for UHC. As existing information on DTHF in LMICs is limited, our scoping review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of DTHF in LMICs. Our objectives include identifying and describing existing DTHF, exploring evaluation approaches, examining their positive and negative effects, and investigating facilitating factors and barriers to implementation at the national level. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Our scoping review follows the six stages proposed by Arksey and O'Malley, further developed by Levac et al and the Joanna Briggs Institute. The reporting adheres to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews framework. Eligibility criteria for studies reflect the three core elements of the search: (1) health financing, (2) digital technologies and (3) LMICs. We search multiple databases, including Medline via PubMed, EMBASE via Ovid, the Web of Science Core Collection, CENTRAL via Cochrane and the Global Index Medicus by the WHO. The extracted information is synthesised from both quantitative and qualitative studies. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As our scoping review is based solely on information gathered from previously published studies, documents and publicly available scientific literature, ethical clearance is not required for its conduct. The findings are presented and discussed in a peer-reviewed article, as well as shared at conferences relevant to the topic.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although the COVID-19 pandemic claimed a great deal of lives, it is still unclear how it affected mortality in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review summarized the available literature on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs, including methods, sources of data, and potential contributing factors that might have influenced excess mortality. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and Scopus. We included studies published from 2019 onwards with a non-COVID-19 period of at least one year as a comparator. The meta-analysis included studies reporting data on population size, as well as observed and expected deaths. We used the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% confidence intervals. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42022378267). RESULTS: The review covered 29 countries, with 10 countries included in the meta-analysis. The pooled meta-analysis included 1,405,128,717 individuals, for which 2,152,474 deaths were expected, and 3,555,880 deaths were reported. Calculated excess mortality was 100.3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, with an excess risk of death of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.649, 1.655, p < 0.001). The data sources used in the studies included civil registration systems, surveys, public cemeteries, funeral counts, obituary notifications, burial site imaging, and demographic surveillance systems. The primary techniques used to estimate excess mortality were statistical forecast modelling and geospatial analysis. One out of the 24 studies found higher excess mortality in urban settings. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that excess mortality in LLMICs during the pandemic was substantial. However, estimates of excess mortality are uncertain due to relatively poor data. Understanding the drivers of excess mortality, will require more research using various techniques and data sources.

Data for health system comparison and assessment in the African Region: A review of 63 indicators available in international databases.

Background: Achieving universal health coverage in the African region requires health systems strengthening. Assessing and comparing health systems contributes to this process, but requires internationally comparable data. The European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies has produced Health Systems in Transition (HiT) reviews in Europe, Asia, North America and the Caribbean with a standardised template. This study explores data availability in international databases for the quantitative health and health system indicators in the HiT template for the WHO African region. Methods: We identified ten databases which contained data for 40 of the 80 original HiT indicators and an additional 23 proxy indicators to fill some gaps. We then assessed data availability for the resulting 63 indicators by country and time, i.e. first/last year of data, years of data available overall and since 2000, and we explored for each indicator (1) against the country with the greatest availability overall and (2) against annual availability for all years since 2000. Results: Overall data availability was greatest in South Africa (93.0% of possible total points) and least in South Sudan (59.5%). Since 2000, Uganda (60.4%) has had the highest data availability and South Sudan (37.2%) the lowest. By topic, data availability was the highest for health financing (91.4%; median start/end date 2000/2019) and background characteristics (88.5%; 1990/2020) and was considerably lower for health system performance (54.5%; 2000/2018) and physical and human resources (44.8%; 2004/2013). Data are available for different years in different countries, and at irregular intervals, complicating time series analysis. No data are available for service provision indicators. Conclusions: Gaps in data in international databases across time, countries, and topics undermine systematic health systems comparisons and assessments, regional health systems strengthening, and efforts to achieve universal health coverage. More efforts are needed to strengthen national data collection and management and integrate national data into international databases to support cross-country assessments, peer learning, and planning. In tandem, more research is needed to understand the specific historical, cultural, administrative, and technological determinants influencing country data availability, as well as the facilitators and barriers of data sharing between countries and international databases, and the potential of new technologies to increase timeliness of data.

Cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation of elderly frail or pre-frail patients prior to elective surgery (PRAEP-GO) versus usual care - Protocol for a health economic evaluation alongside a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Prehabilitation aims to improve patients' functional capacity before surgery to reduce perioperative complications, promote recovery and decrease probability of disability. The planned economic evaluation is performed alongside a large German multi-centre pragmatic, two-arm parallel-group, randomized controlled trial on prehabilitation for frail elderly patients before elective surgery compared to standard care (PRAEP-GO RCT). The aim is to determine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of prehabilitation for frail elderly before an elective surgery. METHODS: The planned health economic evaluation comprises cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses. Analyses are conducted in the German context from different perspectives including the payer perspective, i.e. the statutory health insurance, the societal perspective and the health care provider perspective. Data on outcomes and costs, are collected alongside the ongoing PRAEP-GO RCT. The trial population includes frail or pre-frail patients aged ≥70 years with planned elective surgery. The intervention consists of frailty screening (Fried phenotype), a shared decision-making conference determining modality (physiotherapy and unsupervised physical exercises, nutrition counselling, etc.) and setting (inpatient, day care, outpatient etc.) of a 3-week individual multimodal prehabilitation prior to surgery. The control group receives standard preoperative care. Costs include the intervention costs, the costs of the index hospital stay for surgery, and health care resources consumed during a 12-month follow-up. Clinical effectiveness outcomes included in the economic evaluation are the level of care dependency, the degree of disability as measured by the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0), quality-adjusted life years (QALY) derived from the EQ-5D-5L and the German utility set, and complications occurring during the index hospital stay. Each adopted perspective considers different types of costs and outcomes as outlined in the protocol. All analyses will feature Intention-To-Treat analysis. To explore methodological and parametric uncertainties, we will conduct probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. Subgroup analyses will be performed as secondary analyses. DISCUSSION: The health economic evaluation will provide insights into the cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation in older frail populations, informing decision-making processes and contributing to the evidence base in this field. Potential limitation includes a highly heterogeneous trial population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PRAEP-GO RCT: NCT04418271; economic evaluation: OSF ( https://osf.io/ecm74 ).

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-income and lower middle-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has been marked by a massive death toll. However, the overall effect of the pandemic, including potential unintended negative impacts of some control measures, on mortality remains poorly understood in low-income and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review aims to summarise the available literature on excess mortality in LLMICs, focusing on the methods and data sources used in estimating excess mortality and the drivers of excess mortality. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will review the available literature and report results in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Searches will be conducted in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and Scopus. All published studies that report on the estimates of excess mortality in populations of LLMICs will be included. This will include those with a publication date from 2019 onwards and those with at least a 1-year non-COVID-19 period as the comparator in the estimation of excess mortality during the pandemic. There will be no language restrictions on the search. The meta-analysis will include studies with extractable data on excess mortality, methods, population size, and observed and expected deaths. We will use the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% CIs. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As there is no primary data collection, there is no requirement for ethical review. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publication and conference presentations. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022378267.

Mhealth tools for community-based infectious disease surveillance in Africa: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Countries in the WHO's African region have found community-based surveillance useful in ensuring the effectiveness of the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy. This approach encourages community participation in the surveillance system, in addition to early detection of outbreaks and other health threats. Thus, advancements in mobile health have the potential to improve community-based surveillance in Africa. The purpose of this review is to map evidence on available mhealth tools for community-based infectious disease surveillance in Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The scoping review will follow a mixed-methods approach in line with the framework of Arksey and O'Malley amended by Levac and colleagues and the Joanna Briggs Institute. To retrieve published literature, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar and Google databases will be explored. Websites of organisations involved in surveillance activities across the African region will also be explored. Authors will be interested in published literature between 2000 and 2022 in any language. The primary investigator and a second author will independently review the retrieved titles according to the inclusion criteria, while a third reviewer will resolve conflicts that may arise. The review will map evidence according to the key concepts (mhealth, community-based surveillance and Africa) to inform stakeholders and mhealth designers on best practices to adopt involving mhealth approaches at the community level and mhealth tool designs, respectively. Results following the review will be presented according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: Extension for Scoping Review Guidelines. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for scoping reviews as it does not involve the use of human subjects. This review is the first phase in an overall project on digital health. The findings of the review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated at suitable forums and conferences.

Peer support interventions in maternal and child healthcare delivery in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol for a realist review.

BACKGROUND: Peer support has been proposed as a promising policy intervention for addressing adverse maternal and child healthcare (MCH) outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Existing reviews on peer support largely draw on evidence from high-income countries or focus on single services like breastfeeding, nutrition or postnatal care. In contrast, this review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the empirical literature on peer support interventions across various MCH services in sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, we aim to understand how, why, for whom, and in what circumstances different forms of MCH peer support interventions contribute to improving healthcare outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: This review follows five iterative steps for undertaking realist reviews (1) defining the review scope; (2) developing initial programme theories; (3) searching for evidence; (4) selecting and appraising evidence; and (5) extracting, analysing and synthesising evidence. Four databases-Cochrane Library, PubMed, CINAHL, and EMBASE-were repeatedly searched between March and June 2021. From a large volume of records retrieved from the database and citation search, 61 papers have been selected for review. We will conduct a second search of the same database covering June 2021 to the present before the final extraction and synthesis. The final list of selected papers will be imported into NVivo 12 software and organised, extracted, analysed and synthesised iteratively to examine and illustrate the causal links between contexts, mechanisms and outcomes of MCH peer support interventions in SSA. We have drawn on the existing literature on peer support in healthcare generally to develop initial programme theories. We will then use the empirical literature on MCH peer support interventions in SSA, inputs from a stakeholders' workshop in Ghana and a conference presentation to refine the initial programme theory. DISCUSSION: The review will develop an explicit theory of peer support intervention in healthcare delivery and provide insights for developing evidence-informed policy on the intervention. Drawing lessons from the different national contexts and diverse areas of MCH in SSA, the review will provide an analytically generalizable programme theory that can guide intervention design and implementation. While focusing on MCH peer support interventions in SSA, the review contributes to evolving conversations on the use of theory for health policy planning and complex intervention design and implementation globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42023427751 .

Impact of COVID-19 on health service utilisation in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol for a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in health systems of many countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite comparatively low rates of COVID-19 admissions and deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, the pandemic still had a significant impact by disrupting health service utilisation (HSU). The aim of this scoping review is to synthesise the available evidence on HSU in sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially focusing on (1) changes in HSU compared with the prepandemic period, (2) changes in HSU among particular patient groups studied and (3) identifying factors determining changes in HSU as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: The scoping review will be guided by the methodological framework for conducting scoping reviews developed by Arskey and O'Malley. We will identify relevant studies on HSU in sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic using PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases from 1 December, 2019 to 31 March 2023. We will search grey literature, government and organisational websites for reports and conference proceedings. Included studies will be restricted to those reported in English or French. Two reviewers will independently screen articles at the title and abstract stage for inclusion into full text screening. We will provide a general descriptive overview, tabular summaries and content analysis for the extracted data. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for the conduct of the scoping review. We will disseminate our findings via open access peer-reviewed journals and scientific presentations. Our scoping review findings will help to determine the feasibility of a subsequent systematic review (and meta-analysis) on HSU during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation prior to elective surgery: a systematic review of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Prehabilitation aims at enhancing patients' functional capacity and overall health status to enable them to withstand a forthcoming stressor like surgery. Our aim was to synthesise the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation for patients awaiting elective surgery compared with usual preoperative care. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, the CRD database, ClinicalTrials.gov, the WHO ICTRP and the dissertation databases OADT and DART. Studies comparing prehabilitation for patients with elective surgery to usual preoperative care were included if they reported cost outcomes. All types of economic evaluations (EEs) were included. The primary outcome of the review was cost-effectiveness based on cost-utility analyses (CUAs). The risk of bias of trial-based EEs was assessed with the Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool and the ROBINS-I tool and the credibility of model-based EEs with the ISPOR checklist. Methodological quality of full EEs was assessed using the CHEC checklist. The EEs' results were synthesised narratively using vote counting based on direction of effect. RESULTS: We included 45 unique studies: 25 completed EEs and 20 ongoing studies. Of the completed EEs, 22 were trial-based and three model-based, corresponding to four CUAs, three cost-effectiveness analyses, two cost-benefit analyses, 12 cost-consequence analyses and four cost-minimization analyses. Three of the four trial-based CUAs (75%) found prehabilitation cost-effective, i.e. more effective and/or less costly than usual care. Overall, 16/25 (64.0%) EEs found prehabilitation cost-effective. When excluding studies of insufficient credibility/critical risk of bias, this number reduced to 14/23 (60.9%). In 8/25 (32.0%), cost-effectiveness was unclear, e.g. because prehabilitation was more effective and more costly, and in one EE prehabilitation was not cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence that prehabilitation for patients awaiting elective surgery is cost-effective compared to usual preoperative care. However, we suspect a relevant risk of publication bias, and most EEs were of high risk of bias and/or low methodological quality. Furthermore, there was relevant heterogeneity depending on the population, intervention and methods. Future EEs should be performed over a longer time horizon and apply a more comprehensive perspective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020182813.

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination using a one- or two-dose strategy in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: As part of the Dose Reduction Immunobridging and Safety Study of Two HPV Vaccines in Tanzanian Girls (DoRIS; NCT02834637), the current study is one of the first to evaluate the financial and economic costs of the national rollout of an HPV vaccination program in school-aged girls in sub-Saharan Africa and the potential costs associated with a single dose HPV vaccine program, given recent evidence suggesting that a single dose may be as efficacious as a two-dose regimen. METHODS: The World Health Organization's (WHO) Cervical Cancer Prevention and Control Costing (C4P) micro-costing tool was used to estimate the total financial and economic costs of the national vaccination program from the perspective of the Tanzanian government. Cost data were collected in 2019 via surveys, workshops, and interviews with local stakeholders for vaccines and injection supplies, microplanning, training, sensitization, service delivery, supervision, and cold chain. The cost per two-dose and one-dose fully immunized girl (FIG) was calculated. RESULTS: The total financial and economic costs were US$10,117,455 and US$45,683,204, respectively, at a financial cost of $5.17 per two-dose FIG, and an economic cost of $23.34 per FIG. Vaccine and vaccine-related costs comprised the largest proportion of costs, followed by service delivery. In a one-dose scenario, the cost per FIG reduced to $2.51 (financial) and $12.18 (economic), with the largest reductions in vaccine and injection supply costs, and service delivery. CONCLUSIONS: The overall cost of Tanzania's HPV vaccination program was lower per vaccinee than costs estimated from previous demonstration projects in the region, especially in a single-dose scenario. Given the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization's recent recommendation to update dosing schedules to either one or two doses of the HPV vaccine, these data provide important baseline data for Tanzania and may serve as a guide for improving coverage going forward. The findings may also aid in the prioritization of funding for countries that have not yet added HPV vaccines to their routine immunizations.

Austria: health system summary, 2022

This Health system summary is based on the Austria: Health System Review published in 2018 in the Health Systems in Transition (HiT) series, and relevant reform updates highlighted by the Health Systems and Policies Monitor (HSPM) (www.hspm.org). For this edition, key data have been updated to those available in July 2022 to keep information as current as possible. Health system summaries use a concise format to communicate central features of country health systems and analyse available evidence on the organization, financing and delivery of health care. They also provide insights into key reforms and the varied challenges testing the performance of the health system.

Protocol for a scoping review of measures and definitions of gender-based discrimination linked to health outcomes in low and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Gender-based discrimination (GBD) is generally defined as unequal or disadvantageous treatment based on one's gender. Emerging evidence suggests that exposure to GBD in its various forms can yield negative consequences for women's health, including delaying access to healthcare services and lowering the quality of nutrition. Although consensus exists around the theoretical definitions of GBD, current studies are limited on how to measure GBD empirically in order to assess its true impact on women's health. Our mixed-methods scoping review aims at synthesising existing evidence by answering the question How is gender-based discrimination defined and measured in the health literature, with specific reference to Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)?. Our ambition is to identify commonalities across definitions and measures to generate a dialogue towards reaching consensus around the development of a single standardised tool to be applied in health studies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Our mixed-method scoping review includes quantitative, qualitative and mixed-methods studies and unfolds according to the six stages proposed by Levac et al. Eligibility criteria for studies were defined in order to reflect the three core elements of the search, namely (1) the discrimination based on the gender, (2) the link to health outcomes and (3) the developing countries context. Four databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Cinahl and Econlit) were searched. We will extract and synthesise information from quantitative and qualitative studies following the framework proposed by Hong and use the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses extension for scoping review tool as a guide. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Since our scoping review relies exclusively on information extracted from published articles, its conduct is not subjected to ethical clearance. Results will be described and discussed in a peer-reviewed article and presented at relevant workshops and conferences.

The effect of the capitation policy withdrawal on maternal health service provision in Ashanti Region, Ghana: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Payment methods are known to influence maternal care delivery in health systems. Ghana suspended a piloted capitation provider payment system after nearly five years of implementation. This study aimed to examine the effects of Ghana's capitation policy on maternal health care provision as part of lesson learning and bridging this critical literature gap. METHODS: We used secondary data in the District Health Information Management System-2 and an interrupted time series design to assess changes in level and trend in the provision of ANC4+ (visits of pregnant women making at least the fourth antenatal care attendance per month), HB36 (number of hemoglobin tests conducted for pregnant women who are at the 36th week of gestation) and vaginal delivery in capitated facilities-CHPS (Community-based Health Planning and Services) facilities and hospitals. RESULTS: The results show that the capitation policy withdrawal was associated with a statistically significant trend increase in the provision of ANC4+ in hospitals (coefficient 70.99 p < 0. 001) but no effect in CHPS facilities. Also, the policy withdrawal resulted in contrasting effects in hospitals and CHPS in the trend of provision of Hb36; a statistically significant decline was observed in CHPS (coefficient - 7.01, p < 0.05) while that of hospitals showed a statistically significant trend increase (coefficient 32.87, p < 0.001). Finally, the policy withdrawal did not affect trends of vaginal delivery rates in both CHPS and hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: The capitation policy in Ghana appeared to have had a differential effect on the provision of maternal services in both CHPS and hospitals; repressing maternal care provision in hospitals and promoting adherence to anemia testing at term for pregnant women in CHPS facilities. Policy makers and stakeholders should consider the possible detrimental effects on maternal care provision and quality in the design and implementation of per capita primary care systems as they can potentially impact the achievement of SDG 3.

A cross-country comparison of Covid-19 containment measures and their effects on the epidemic curves.

BACKGROUND: European countries are still searching to eliminate or contain the Covid-19 pandemic. A variety of approaches have achieved different levels of success in limiting the spread of the disease early and preventing avoidable deaths. Governmental policy responses may explain these differences and this study aims to describe evidence about the effectiveness of containment measures throughout the course of the pandemic in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). METHODS: The research approach adopted consisted of three steps: 1) Build a Containment Index (C.I.) that considers nine parameters to make an assessment on the strength of measures; 2) Develop dynamic epidemiological models for forecasting purposes; 3) Predict case numbers by assuming containment measures remain constant for a period of 30 days. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that in the five European countries we compared, the use of different approaches definitively affected the effectiveness of containment measures for the Covid-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: The evidence found in our research can be useful to inform policy makers' decisions when deciding to introduce or relax containment measures and their timing, both during the current pandemic or in addressing possible future health crises.