Classifying the unclassifiable-a Delphi study to reach consensus on the fibrotic nature of diseases.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, clinical research has focused on individual fibrotic diseases or fibrosis in a particular organ. However, it is possible for people to have multiple fibrotic diseases. While multi-organ fibrosis may suggest shared pathogenic mechanisms, yet there is no consensus on what constitutes a fibrotic disease and therefore fibrotic multimorbidity. AIM: A Delphi study was performed to reach consensus on which diseases may be described as fibrotic. METHODS: Participants were asked to rate a list of diseases, sub-grouped according to eight body regions, as 'fibrotic manifestation always present', 'can develop fibrotic manifestations', 'associated with fibrotic manifestations' or 'not fibrotic nor associated'. Classifications of 'fibrotic manifestation always present' and 'can develop fibrotic manifestations' were merged and termed 'fibrotic'. Clinical consensus was defined according to the interquartile range, having met a minimum number of responses. Clinical agreement was used for classification where diseases did not meet the minimum number of responses (required for consensus measure), were only classified if there was 100% consensus on disease classification. RESULTS: After consulting experts, searching the literature and coding dictionaries, a total of 323 non-overlapping diseases which might be considered fibrotic were identified; 92 clinical specialists responded to the first round of the survey. Over three survey rounds, 240 diseases were categorized as fibrotic via clinical consensus and 25 additional diseases through clinical agreement. CONCLUSION: Using a robust methodology, an extensive list of diseases was classified. The findings lay the foundations for studies estimating the burden of fibrotic multimorbidity, as well as investigating shared mechanisms and therapies.

Inadequate specialist care referrals for high-risk asthma patients in the UK: an adult population-based cohort 2006-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To improve asthma morbidity and mortality in the UK, national asthma guidelines recommend referral to \ specialist care for the following high-risk groups, after a hospital admission for asthma, ≥3 courses of oral corticosteroids (OCS) in 12 months, an incident high-dose inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) prescription or addition of a fourth asthma drug to a patient's maintenance regimen. We sought to assess the prevalence and temporal change of referrals to identify unmet needs. METHODS: We used UK electronic healthcare records, 2006-2017, to identify high-risk asthma patients managed within primary care. Referrals to respiratory clinics in secondary care were measured, within 3 months before or 6 months after, an incident ICS, third OCS in a year, or fourth asthma drug; or 12 months after a hospital admission for asthma. A nested case-control and conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with receiving a referral. RESULTS: A total of 246,116 asthma patients were eligible. There was a slight increase in secondary care referrals from 2014 onwards but the percentage remained low with <20% in each high-risk group referred for specialist care. The factors in the past year that were most strongly associated with receiving a referral were a hospital admission or A&E visit for asthma, ≥3 OCS courses, ≥2 add-on drugs, or high-dose ICS prescription. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of high-risk asthma patients were not referred for specialist care, as recommended by national guidelines. Compared to other risk factors, those admitted to hospital were most likely to receive a referral.

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor. METHODS: We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO). RESULTS: Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60). CONCLUSION: The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

Changes in COPD inhaler prescriptions in the United Kingdom, 2000 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, there have been significant changes in the pharmacological management of COPD, due to an explosion of inhaler trials, and timely updation of national and international guidelines. We sought to describe temporal changes in prescribing practices in the United Kingdom, and some of the factors that may have influenced them. PATIENTS AND METHODS: COPD patients were identified from UK primary care nationally representative electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), between 2000 and 2016. Prescription data were described by the three maintenance inhaled medication classes used, inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), long-acting beta agonist (LABA), long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), and their combinations, dual LABA-ICS, dual LAMA-LABA, or triple therapy LABA-ICS-LAMA. Differing patient characteristics across the six different therapy regimens were measured in 2016. RESULTS: COPD patients were identified: 187,588 prevalent and incident inhaler users and 169,511 incident inhaler users. Since 2002, LAMA showed increasing popularity, while ICS alone exhibited an inverse trend. Triple therapy prescriptions rapidly increased as the first-line therapy until 2014 when LAMA-LABA prescriptions started to increase. By 2014, 41% of all COPD patients were maintained on triple therapy, and 13% were maintained on LAMA only. Characterizing the patients in 2016 revealed that those on triple therapy were more likely to have more severe disease, yet, over a third of patients on triple therapy had only mild disease. CONCLUSION: UK prescribing practices were not in keeping with national guidelines but did appear to align with evidence from major drug trials and updated international guidelines. There has been a huge upsurge in triple therapy but incident data show this trend is beginning to reverse for initial management.

Acute kidney injury in stable COPD and at exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: While acute kidney injury (AKI) alone is associated with increased mortality, the incidence of hospital admission with AKI among stable and exacerbating COPD patients and the effect of concurrent AKI at COPD exacerbation on mortality is not known. METHODS: A total of 189,561 individuals with COPD were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Using Poisson and logistic regressions, we explored which factors predicted admission for AKI (identified in Hospital Episode Statistics) in this COPD cohort and concomitant AKI at a hospitalization for COPD exacerbation. Using survival analysis, we investigated the effect of concurrent AKI at exacerbation on mortality (n=36,107) and identified confounding factors. RESULTS: The incidence of AKI in the total COPD cohort was 128/100,000 person-years. The prevalence of concomitant AKI at exacerbation was 1.9%, and the mortality rate in patients with AKI at exacerbation was 521/1,000 person-years. Male sex, older age, and lower glomerular filtration rate predicted higher risk of AKI or death. There was a 1.80 fold (95% confidence interval: 1.61, 2.03) increase in adjusted mortality within the first 6 months post COPD exacerbation in patients suffering from AKI and COPD exacerbation compared to those who were AKI free. CONCLUSION: In comparison to previous studies on general populations and hospitalizations, the incidence and prevalence of AKI is relatively high in COPD patients. Coexisting AKI at exacerbation is prognostic of poor outcome.

Effect of ß blockers on mortality after myocardial infarction in adults with COPD: population based cohort study of UK electronic healthcare records.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether the use and timing of prescription of ß blockers in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) having a first myocardial infarction was associated with survival and to identify factors related to their use. DESIGN: Population based cohort study in England. SETTING: UK national registry of myocardial infarction (Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP)) linked to the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), 2003-11. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with COPD with a first myocardial infarction in 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008 as recorded in MINAP, who had no previous evidence of myocardial infarction in their GPRD or MINAP record. Data were provided by the Cardiovascular Disease Research using Linked Bespoke studies and Electronic Health Records (CALIBER) group at University College London. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cox proportional hazards ratio for mortality after myocardial infarction in patients with COPD in those prescribed ß blockers or not, corrected for covariates including age, sex, smoking status, drugs, comorbidities, type of myocardial infarction, and severity of infarct. RESULTS: Among 1063 patients with COPD, treatment with ß blockers started during the hospital admission for myocardial infarction was associated with substantial survival benefits (fully adjusted hazard ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.69; P<0.001; median follow-up time 2.9 years). Patients already taking a ß blocker before their myocardial infarction also had a survival benefit (0.59, 0.44 to 0.79; P<0.001). Similar results were obtained with propensity scores as an alternative method to adjust for differences between those prescribed and not prescribed ß blockers. With follow-up started from date of discharge from hospital, the effect size was slightly attenuated but there was a similar protective effect of treatment with ß blockers started during hospital admission for myocardial infarction (0.64, 0.44 to 0.94; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The use of ß blockers started either at the time of hospital admission for myocardial infarction or before a myocardial infarction is associated with improved survival after myocardial infarction in patients with COPD. REGISTRATION: NCT01335672.

Predictive accuracy of patient-reported exacerbation frequency in COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation frequency is important for clinical risk assessment and trial recruitment. In order to accurately establish exacerbation frequency, patients need to be followed for 1 yr, although this is not always practical. 1) Patient recall of exacerbation number during the year prior to recruitment to the London COPD cohort was compared with the number of exacerbations recorded on diary cards during the subsequent year; and 2) patient recall of their exacerbation number after 1 yr of follow-up was compared with documented exacerbations over the same year. A total of 267 patients (forced expiratory volume in 1 s 1.14 L) recorded worsening of respiratory symptoms on daily diary cards for 1 yr. Exacerbations were defined according to previously validated criteria. There was no difference between the exacerbation number recalled by patients prior to recruitment and the number detected during the first year (median 2.0 (interquartile range 1.0-4.0) and 2.0 (1.0-4.0); expected agreement 76.4%; agreement 84.6%; κ = 0.3469). There was no difference between the number of exacerbations remembered by patients and the number recorded on diary cards over the same 1-yr period (2.0 (1.0-4.0) for both groups; expected agreement 74.9%; actual agreement 93.3%; κ = 0.6146). Patients remember the number of exacerbations they have in a year. Accuracy is increased when comparing the same 1-yr period. Patient recall is sufficiently robust for stratification into frequent and infrequent exacerbator groups for subsequent years.

Defective macrophage phagocytosis of bacteria in COPD.

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are an increasing cause of hospitalisations and are associated with accelerated progression of airflow obstruction. Approximately half of COPD exacerbations are associated with bacteria and many patients have lower airways colonisation. This suggests that bacterial infection in COPD could be due to reduced pathogen removal. This study investigated whether bacterial clearance by macrophages is defective in COPD. Phagocytosis of fluorescently labelled polystyrene beads and Haemophillus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae by alveolar macrophages and monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) was assessed by fluorimetry and flow cytometry. Receptor expression was measured by flow cytometry. Alveolar macrophages and MDM phagocytosed polystyrene beads similarly. There was no difference in phagocytosis of beads by MDM from COPD patients compared with cells from smokers and nonsmokers. MDM from COPD patients showed reduced phagocytic responses to S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae compared with nonsmokers and smokers. This was not associated with alterations in cell surface receptor expression of toll-like receptor (TLR)2, TLR4, macrophage receptor with collagenous structure, cluster of differentiation (CD)163, CD36 or mannose receptor. Budesonide, formoterol or azithromycin did not suppress phagocytosis suggesting that reduced responses in COPD MDM were not due to medications. COPD macrophage innate responses are suppressed and may lead to bacterial colonisation and increased exacerbation frequency.

Relationship between depression and exacerbations in COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with exacerbations. Some patients are prone to frequent exacerbations and these individuals have a worse quality of life, greater limitation of their daily activity and faster disease progression than patients with less frequent exacerbations. A prospective study in a well-characterised cohort was performed and it was assessed whether depression, as determined by the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, was related to exacerbation frequency, systemic inflammation and various social factors. The associations of any increase in depressive symptoms at exacerbation were also investigated. Frequent exacerbators had a significantly higher median (interquartile range) baseline depression score than infrequent exacerbators (17.0 (7.0-25.0) and 12.0 (6.0-18.0), respectively). Depressed patients spend significantly less time outdoors and had significantly worse quality of life as measured by the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire. Depression increased significantly in patients from baseline to exacerbation (12.5 (5.0-19.0) and 19.5 (12.0-28.0) respectively). The present study is the first to show a relationship between depression and exacerbation frequency in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The finding that frequent exacerbators are more depressed than infrequent exacerbators is relevant, as exacerbation frequency is an important outcome measure in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.