A Bayesian approach to estimate the biomass of anchovies off the coast of Perú.

The Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is the world's most productive ecosystem in terms of fish. In particular, the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) is the major prey of the main top predators, like seabirds, fish, humans, and other mammals. In this context, it is important to understand the dynamics of the anchovy distribution to preserve it as well as to exploit its economic capacities. Using the data collected by the "Instituto del Mar del Perú" (IMARPE) during a scientific survey in 2005, we present a statistical analysis that has as main goals: (i) to adapt to the characteristics of the sampled data, such as spatial dependence, high proportions of zeros and big size of samples; (ii) to provide important insights on the dynamics of the anchovy population; and (iii) to propose a model for estimation and prediction of anchovy biomass in the NHCS offshore from Perú. These data were analyzed in a Bayesian framework using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. Further, to select the best model and to study the predictive power of each model, we performed model comparisons and predictive checks, respectively. Finally, we carried out a Bayesian spatial influence diagnostic for the preferred model.

Acoustics reveals the presence of a macrozooplankton biocline in the Bay of Biscay in response to hydrological conditions and predator-prey relationships.

Bifrequency acoustic data, hydrological measurements and satellite data were used to study the vertical distribution of macrozooplankton in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the hydrological conditions and fish distribution during spring 2009. The most noticeable result was the observation of a 'biocline' during the day i.e., the interface where zooplankton biomass changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below. The biocline separated the surface layer, almost devoid of macrozooplankton, from the macrozooplankton-rich deeper layers. It is a specific vertical feature which ties in with the classic diel vertical migration pattern. Spatiotemporal correlations between macrozooplankton and environmental variables (photic depth, thermohaline vertical structure, stratification index and chlorophyll-a) indicate that no single factor explains the macrozooplankton vertical distribution. Rather a set of factors, the respective influence of which varies from region to region depending on the habitat characteristics and the progress of the spring stratification, jointly influence the distribution. In this context, the macrozooplankton biocline is potentially a biophysical response to the search for a particular depth range where light attenuation, thermohaline vertical structure and stratification conditions together provide a suitable alternative to the need for expending energy in reaching deeper water without the risk of being eaten.