Predicting performance of the HAS-BLED and ORBIT bleeding risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with Rivaroxaban: Observations from the prospective EMIR Registry.

BACKGROUND: Assessing bleeding risk during the decision-making process of starting oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients is essential. Several bleeding risk scores have been proposed for vitamin K antagonist users but, few studies have focused on validation of these bleeding risk scores in patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). The aim was to compare the predictive ability of HAS-BLED and ORBIT bleeding risk scores in AF patients taking rivaroxaban in the EMIR ('Estudio observacional para la identificación de los factores de riesgo asociados a eventos cardiovasculares mayores en pacientes con fibrilación auricular no valvular tratados con un anticoagulante oral directo [Rivaroxaban]) Study. METHODS AND RESULTS: EMIR Study was an observational, multicenter, post-authorization, and prospective study that involved AF patients under OAC with rivaroxaban at least 6 months before enrolment. We analysed baseline clinical characteristics and adverse events after 2.5 years of follow-up and validated the predictive ability of HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores for major bleeding (MB) events.We analysed 1433 patients with mean age of 74.2 ± 9.7 (44.5% female). Mean HAS-BLED score was 1.6 ± 1.0 and ORBIT score was 1.1 ± 1.2. The ORBIT score categorised a higher proportion of patients as 'low-risk' (87.1%) compared with 53.5% using the HAS-BLED score. There were 33 MB events (1.04%/year) and 87 patients died (2.73%/year). Both HAS-BLED and ORBIT had a good predictive ability for MB{Area under the curve (AUC) 0.770, [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.693-0.847; P <0.001] and AUC 0.765 (95% CI 0.672-0.858; P <0.001), respectively}. There was a non-significant difference for discriminative ability of the two tested scores (P = 0.930) and risk reclassification in terms of net reclassification improvement (NRI) -5.7 (95% CI -42.4-31.1; P = 0.762). HAS-BLED score showed the best calibration and ORBIT score showed the largest mismatch in calibration, particularly in higher predicted risk patients. CONCLUSION: In a prospective real-world AF population under rivaroxaban from EMIR registry, the HAS-BLED score had good predictive performance and calibration compared with ORBIT score for MB events. ORBIT score presented worse calibration than HAS-BLED in this DOAC treated population.

Impact of heart failure on the clinical profile and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with rivaroxaban. Data from the EMIR study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the presence of heart failure (HF) on the clinical profile and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) anticoagulated with rivaroxaban. METHODS: Observational and non-interventional study that included AF adults recruited from 79 Spanish centers, anticoagulated with rivaroxaban ≥ 6 months before inclusion. Data were analyzed according to baseline HF status. RESULTS: Out of 1,433 patients, 326 (22.7%) had HF at baseline. Compared to patients without HF, HF patients were older (75.3 ± 9.9 vs. 73.8 ± 9.6 years; p = 0.01), had more diabetes (36.5% vs. 24.3%; p < 0.01), coronary artery disease (28.2% vs. 12.9%; p < 0.01), renal insufficiency (31.7% vs. 22.6%; p = 0.01), higher CHA2DS2-VASc (4.5 ± 1.6 vs. 3.2 ± 1.4; p < 0.01) and HAS-BLED (1.8 ± 1.1 vs. 1.5 ± 1.0; p < 0.01). After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, among HF patients, annual rates of stroke/systemic embolism/transient ischemic attack, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (non-fatal myocardial infarction, revascularization and cardiovascular death), cardiovascular death, and major bleeding were 1.2%, 3.0%, 2.0%, and 1.4%, respectively. Compared to those patients without HF, HF patients had greater annual rates of MACE (3.0% vs. 0.5%; p < 0.01) and cardiovascular death (2.0% vs. 0.2%; p < 0.01), without significant differences regarding other outcomes, including thromboembolic or bleeding events. Previous HF was an independent predictor of MACE (odds ratio 3.4; 95% confidence interval 1.6-7.3; p = 0.002) but not for thromboembolic events or major bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Among AF patients anticoagulated with rivaroxaban, HF patients had a worse clinical profile and a higher MACE risk and cardiovascular mortality. HF was independently associated with the development of MACE, but not with thromboembolic events or major bleeding.

Outcomes and predictive value of the 2MACE score in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with rivaroxaban in a prospective, multicenter observational study: The EMIR study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the 2MACE in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with rivaroxaban and to improve the accuracy of 2MACE. METHODS: This was a post-authorization and observational study of AF adults treated with rivaroxaban for ≥ 6 months. The primary endpoint was any of the major adverse cardiac events (MACE), namely, cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and myocardial revascularization. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the performance of 2MACE, and a new score, 2MACER to predict MACE. RESULTS: A total of 1433 patients were included (74.2 ± 9.7 years, CHA2DS2-VASc 3.5 ± 1.5, 26.9% 2MACE ≥ 3). The annual event rates (follow-up 2.5 years) were 1.07% for MACE, 0.66% for thromboembolic events and 1.04% for major bleeding. Patients with 2MACE ≥ 3 (vs. < 3) had higher risk of stroke/systemic embolism/transient ischemic attack (odds ratio [OR] 5.270; 95% CI 2.216-12.532), major bleeding (OR 4.624; 95% CI 2.163-9.882), MACE (OR 3.202; 95% CI 1.548-6.626) and cardiovascular death (OR 3.395; 95% CI 1.396-8.259). 2MACE was recalculated giving 1 more point to patients with baseline a glomerular filtration rate < 50 mL/min/1.73 m² (2MACER); 2MACER vs. 2MACE: IDI 0.1%, p = 0.126; NRI 23.9%, p = 0.125; AUC: 0.651 (95% CI 0.547-0.755) vs. 0.638 (95% CI 0.534-0.742), respectively; p = 0.361. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical practice, AF patients anticoagulated with rivaroxaban exhibit a low risk of events. 2MACE score acts as a modest predictor of a higher risk of adverse outcomes in this population. 2MACER did not significantly increase the ability of 2MACE to predict MACE.