Long-term outcomes and predictors of disabling disease in a population-based cohort of patients with incident Crohn's disease diagnosed between 1994 and 1997.

BACKGROUND: The identification of early prognostic factors during Crohn's disease (CD) remains needed for physician decision-making to minimize structural bowel damage, which this study aimed to assess in a population-based setting. METHODS: All incident cases of CD were prospectively registered from 1994 to 1997 in Brittany, a limited area of France. All charts of patients were reviewed from the diagnosis to the last clinic visit in 2015. Disabling CD course was defined according to the Saint-Antoine criteria. RESULTS: Among the 331 incident cases of CD, 272 (82%) were followed-up for a median time of 12.8 years. The cumulative probability of developing stricturing or fistulizing CD was 66% at 15 years, and 107 (39%) patients underwent surgery. The cumulative probabilities of immunosuppressant and TNF antagonist use at 15 years were 37% and 22%, respectively. The cumulative risks for disabling disease and bowel damage were 74% and 71% at 15 years, respectively. Systemic symptoms and perianal lesions at diagnosis were independently associated with a disabling disease course. Perianal disease and short disease extension were associated with the onset of bowel damage. Deep ulcers was not predictive of any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: A disabling disease course and bowel damage occurred early in the course of CD, which suggests the need for early diagnosis and early treatment, particularly for patients with systematic symptoms and perianal disease.

Natural History of Perianal Crohn's Disease: Long-term Follow-up of a Population-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The natural history of perianal Crohn's disease (PCD) remains poorly described and is mainly based on retrospective studies from referral centers. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, outcomes and predictors of the onset of PCD. METHODS: All incident cases of patients diagnosed with possible CD were prospectively registered from 1994 to 1997 in Brittany, a limited area in France. At diagnosis, the clinical features of perianal disease were recorded. All patient charts were reviewed from the diagnosis to the last clinic visit in 2015. RESULTS: Among the 272 out of 331 incident CD patients followed up, 51 (18.7%) patients had PCD at diagnosis. After a mean follow-up of 12.8 years, 93 (34%) patients developed PCD. The cumulative probabilities of perianal CD occurrence were 22%, 29%, and 32% after 1 year, 5 years, and 10 years, respectively. The cumulative probabilities of anal ulceration were 14%, and 19% after 1 year and 10 years, respectively. Extraintestinal manifestations were associated with the occurrence of anal ulceration. The cumulative probabilities of fistulizing PCD were 11%, 16%, and 19% after 1 year, 5 years, and 10 years, respectively. Extraintestinal manifestations, rectal involvement and anal ulceration were predictors of fistulizing PCD. The cumulative probability of developing anal stricture was 4% after 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: PCD is frequently observed during CD, in approximately one-third of patients. These data underline the need for targeted therapeutic research on primary perianal lesions (proctitis, anal ulceration) to avoid the onset of fistulizing perianal disease.