Predicting the potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) infestation in New Zealand, using maximum entropy-based ecological niche modelling.

Although currently exotic to New Zealand, the potential geographic distribution of Amblyomma americanum (L.), the lone star tick, was modelled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt model was calibrated across the native range of A. americanum in North America using present-day climatic conditions and occurrence data from museum collections. The resulting model was then projected onto New Zealand using both present-day and future climates modelled under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Three sets of WorldClim bioclimatic variables were chosen using the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The preferred model was selected based on partial receiver operating characteristic tests, the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The final model had four bioclimatic variables, Annual Mean Temperature (BIO1), Annual Precipitation (BIO12), Precipitation Seasonality (BIO15) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (BIO17), and the projected New Zealand distribution was broadly similar to that of Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, New Zealand's only livestock tick, but with a more extensive predicted suitability. The climate change predictions for the year 2050 under both low and high RCP scenarios projected only moderate increases in habitat suitability along the mountain valleys in the South Island. In conclusion, this analysis shows that given the opportunity and license A. americanum could and would successfully establish in New Zealand and could provide another vector for theileriosis organisms.

Potential Spatial Distribution of the Newly Introduced Long-horned Tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis in North America.

The North American distributional potential of the recently invaded tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis, was estimated using occurrence data from its geographic range in other parts of the world and relevant climatic data sets. Several hundred candidate models were built using a correlative maximum entropy approach, and best-fitting models were selected based on statistical significance, predictive ability, and complexity. The median of the best-fitting models indicates a broad potential distribution for this species, but restricted to three sectors-the southeastern United States, the Pacific Northwest, and central and southern Mexico.

Evaluations of hydrologic risk factors for canine leptospirosis: 94 cases (2002-2009).

Hydrologic and soil-hydrologic variables were evaluated retrospectively as potential risk factors for canine leptospirosis in Kansas and Nebraska using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The sample included 94 positive and 185 negative dogs for leptospirosis predominantly based on PCR test for leptospires in urine. Hydrologic variables for the region were derived from National Hydrographic Dataset, National Flood Hazard Layer, National Wetlands Inventory; and soil-hydrologic variables from Soil Survey Geographic Database around geocoded addresses of case/control locations. Multivariable logistic models were used to determine association between hydrologic and soil-hydrologic variables and test status. Distance from water features (OR=0.82; 95% CI=0.79, 0.86), hydrologic density (OR=2.80; 95% CI=1.58, 4.96) and frequently flooded areas (OR=4.05; 95% CI=2.17, 7.55) within 2500 m surrounding case/control locations were significant risk factors for canine leptospirosis. Vaccination for dogs that live closer to water features, landscapes dominated by water features and frequent floods should be considered for leptospirosis prevention.

Neighborhood-level socioeconomic and urban land use risk factors of canine leptospirosis: 94 cases (2002-2009).

Associations of housing, population, and agriculture census variables, and presence near public places were retrospectively evaluated as potential risk factors for canine leptospirosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The sample population included 94 dogs positive for leptospirosis based on a positive polymerase chain reaction test for leptospires on urine, isolation of leptospires on urine culture, a single reciprocal serum titer of 12,800 or greater, or a four-fold rise in reciprocal serum titers over a 2-4 week period; and 185 dogs negative for leptospirosis based on a negative polymerase chain reaction test and reciprocal serum titers less than 400. Multivariable logistic regressions revealed different risk factors among different census units; however, houses lacking complete plumbing facilities [OR=2.80, 95% C.I.=1.82, 4.32 (census unit, block group); OR=1.36, 95% C.I.=1.28, 1.45 (census tract); OR=3.02, 95% C.I.=2.60, 3.52 (county)]; and poverty status by age (18-64) [OR=2.04, 95% C.I.=1.74, 2.39 (block group); OR=1.53, 95% C.I.=1.41, 1.67 (census tract); and OR=1.62, 95% C.I.=1.50, 1.76 (county)] were consistent risk factors for all census units. Living within 2500 m of a university/college and parks/forests were also significantly associated with leptospirosis status in dogs. Dogs that live under these circumstances are at higher risk for leptospirosis and pet owners should consider vaccination.