Developing an empirical model from Landsat data series for monitoring water salinity in coastal Bangladesh.

This study aims to develop an empirical model from Landsat data series to monitor the water salinity of coastal Bangladesh efficiently. Such a model can substitute expensive conventional techniques for assessing remote water quality. A set of equations connecting sensors 5 TM and 8 OLI were generated using multiple regression analysis. Radiometric and atmospheric corrections were carried out to enhance the quality of satellite images. Total 13 compositions of different bands including blue, green and red were considered to find the Coefficient of Determination (r2) with the field level EC (electrical conductivity) values collected from 74 sampling locations. Salinity data mainly EC values of coastal water were collected from primary and secondary sources. Considering the r2 values, significant band compositions were identified and then employed to generate linear equations. Such equation for Landsat 5 TM could detect water salinity (i.e. EC) accurately of around 82%. Similarly, the r2 value for Landsat 8 OLI was found as 0.76 that can confirm the applicability of Landsat data series to detect the change of salinity level of coastal water for a long period. The availability of coastal water was delineated by NDWI whereas salinity level was assessed using the developed equations for the year 2001 and 2019. Interestingly, it was observed that coastal areas having lower level of EC almost vanished whereas those of having higher level of EC were increased significantly between 2001 and 2019. Such increase in coastal water salinity is the result of combined effects of climatic and anthropogenic factors, which can pose a considerable risk to the coastal inhabitants including freshwater scarcity, food insecurity, and health hazard.

Temporal dynamics of land use/land cover change and its prediction using CA-ANN model for southwestern coastal Bangladesh.

Change analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) is a technique to study the environmental degradation and to control the unplanned development. Analysis of the past changing trend of LULC along with modeling future LULC provides a combined opportunity to evaluate and guide the present and future land use policy. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, especially Assasuni Upazila of Satkhira District, is the most vulnerable to natural disasters and has faced notable changes in its LULC due to the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic causes. The objectives of this study are to illustrate the temporal dynamics of LULC change in Assasuni Upazila over the last 27 years (i.e., between 1989 and 2015) and also to predict future land use change using CA-ANN (cellular automata and artificial neural network) model for the year 2028. Temporal dynamics of LULC change was analyzed, employing supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images. Then, prediction of future LULC was carried out by CA-ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. The analysis of LULC change revealed that the LULC of Assasuni had changed notably during 1989 to 2015. "Bare lands" decreased by 21% being occupied by other land uses, especially by "shrimp farms." Shrimp farm area increased by 25.9% during this period, indicating a major occupational transformation from agriculture to shrimp aquaculture in the study area during the period under study. Reduction in "settlement" area revealed the trend of migration from the Upazila. The predicted LULC for the year 2028 showed that reduction in bare land area would continue and 1595.97 ha bare land would transform into shrimp farm during 2015 to 2028. Also, the impacts of the changing LULC on the livelihood of local people and migration status of the Upazila were analyzed from the data collected through focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. The analysis revealed that the changing LULC and the occupational shift from paddy cultivation to shrimp farming were related to each other. Around 31.3% of the total respondents stated that at least one of their family members had migrated. Climate-driven southwestern coastal people usually migrate from the vulnerable rural areas towards the nearest relatively safe city due to adverse effects of natural disasters. To control the unplanned development and reduce the internal migration in Assasuni and other coastal areas, a comprehensive land use management plan was suggested that would accommodate the diversified uses of coastal lands and eventually lessen the threats to the life and livelihood of the local people.