Association between SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Select Symptoms and Conditions 31 to 150 Days After Testing among Children and Adults

BackgroundAn increasing number of studies have described new and persistent symptoms and conditions as potential post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). However, it remains unclear whether certain symptoms or conditions occur more frequently among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those never infected with SARS-CoV-2. We compared the occurrence of specific COVID-associated symptoms and conditions as potential PASC 31 to 150 days following a SARS-CoV-2 test among adults ([≥]20 years) and children (<20 years) with positive and negative test results documented in the electronic health records (EHRs) of institutions participating in PCORnet, the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. Methods and FindingsThis study included 3,091,580 adults (316,249 SARS-CoV-2 positive; 2,775,331 negative) and 675,643 children (62,131 positive; 613,512 negative) who had a SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test (nucleic acid amplification or rapid antigen) during March 1, 2020-May 31, 2021 documented in their EHR. We identified hospitalization status in the day prior through the 16 days following the SARS-CoV-2 test as a proxy for the severity of COVID-19. We used logistic regression to calculate the odds of receiving a diagnostic code for each symptom outcome and Cox proportional hazard models to calculate the risk of being newly diagnosed with each condition outcome, comparing those with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test to those with a negative test. After adjustment for baseline covariates, hospitalized adults and children with a positive test had increased odds of being diagnosed with [≥]1 symptom (adults: adjusted odds ratio[aOR], 1.17[95% CI, 1.11-1.23]; children: aOR, 1.18[95% CI, 1.08-1.28]) and shortness of breath (adults: aOR, 1.50[95% CI, 1.38-1.63]; children: aOR, 1.40[95% CI, 1.15-1.70]) 31-150 days following a SARS-CoV-2 test compared with hospitalized individuals with a negative test. Hospitalized adults with a positive test also had increased odds of being diagnosed with [≥]3 symptoms (aOR, 1.16[95% CI, 1.08 - 1.26]) and fatigue (aOR, 1.12[95% CI, 1.05 - 1.18]) compared with those testing negative. The risks of being newly diagnosed with type 1 or type 2 diabetes (aHR, 1.25[95% CI, 1.17-1.33]), hematologic disorders (aHR, 1.19[95% CI, 1.11-1.28]), and respiratory disease (aHR, 1.44[95% CI, 1.30-1.60]) were higher among hospitalized adults with a positive test compared with those with a negative test. Non-hospitalized adults with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test had higher odds of being diagnosed with fatigue (aOR, 1.11[95% CI, 1.05-1.16]) and shortness of breath (aOR, 1.22[95% CI, 1.15-1.29]), and had an increased risk (aHR, 1.12[95% CI, 1.02-1.23]) of being newly diagnosed with hematologic disorders (i.e., venous thromboembolism and pulmonary embolism) 31-150 days following SARS-CoV-2 test compared with those testing negative. The risk of being newly diagnosed with certain conditions, such as mental health conditions and neurological disorders, was lower among patients with a positive viral test relative to those with a negative viral test. ConclusionsPatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were at higher risk of being diagnosed with certain symptoms and conditions, particularly fatigue, respiratory symptoms, and hematological abnormalities, after acute infection. The risk was highest among adults hospitalized after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Identifying Contextual and Spatial Risk Factors for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: An EHR-based Cohort Study from the RECOVER Program

Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) affects a wide range of organ systems among a large proportion of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although studies have identified a broad set of patient-level risk factors for PASC, little is known about the contextual and spatial risk factors for PASC. Using electronic health data of patients with COVID-19 from two large clinical research networks in New York City and Florida, we identified contextual and spatial risk factors from nearly 200 environmental characteristics for 23 PASC symptoms and conditions of eight organ systems. We conducted a two-phase environment-wide association study. In Phase 1, we ran a mixed effects logistic regression with 5-digit ZIP Code tabulation area (ZCTA5) random intercepts for each PASC outcome and each contextual and spatial factor, adjusting for a comprehensive set of patient-level confounders. In Phase 2, we ran a mixed effects logistic regression for each PASC outcome including all significant (false positive discovery adjusted p-value < 0.05) contextual and spatial characteristics identified from Phase I and adjusting for confounders. We identified air toxicants (e.g., methyl methacrylate), criteria air pollutants (e.g., sulfur dioxide), particulate matter (PM2.5) compositions (e.g., ammonium), neighborhood deprivation, and built environment (e.g., food access) that were associated with increased risk of PASC conditions related to nervous, respiratory, blood, circulatory, endocrine, and other organ systems. Specific contextual and spatial risk factors for each PASC condition and symptom were different across New York City area and Florida. Future research is warranted to extend the analyses to other regions and examine more granular contextual and spatial characteristics to inform public health efforts to help patients recover from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Machine Learning for Identifying Data-Driven Subphenotypes of Incident Post-Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection Conditions with Large Scale Electronic Health Records: Findings from the RECOVER Initiative

The post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) refers to a broad spectrum of symptoms and signs that are persistent, exacerbated, or newly incident in the post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection period of COVID-19 patients. Most studies have examined these conditions individually without providing concluding evidence on co-occurring conditions. To answer this question, this study leveraged electronic health records (EHRs) from two large clinical research networks from the national Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet) and investigated patients newly incident diagnoses that appeared within 30 to 180 days after a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Through machine learning, we identified four reproducible subphenotypes of PASC dominated by blood and circulatory system, respiratory, musculoskeletal and nervous system, and digestive system problems, respectively. We also demonstrated that these subphenotypes were associated with distinct patterns of patient demographics, underlying conditions present prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection, acute infection phase severity, and use of new medications in the post-acute period. Our study provides novel insights into the heterogeneity of PASC and can inform stratified decision-making in the treatment of COVID-19 patients with PASC conditions.

Understanding Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection through Data-Driven Analysis with the Longitudinal Electronic Health Records: Findings from the RECOVER Initiative

Recent studies have investigated post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) using real-world patient data such as electronic health records (EHR). Prior studies have typically been conducted on patient cohorts with small sample sizes1 or specific patient populations2,3 limiting generalizability. This study aims to characterize PASC using the EHR data warehouses from two large national patient-centered clinical research networks (PCORnet), INSIGHT and OneFlorida+, which include 11 million patients in New York City (NYC) and 16.8 million patients in Florida respectively. With a high-throughput causal inference pipeline using high-dimensional inverse propensity score adjustment, we identified a broad list of diagnoses and medications with significantly higher incidence 30-180 days after the laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to non-infected patients. We found more PASC diagnoses and a higher risk of PASC in NYC than in Florida, which highlights the heterogeneity of PASC in different populations.

Novel clinical subphenotypes in COVID-19: derivation, validation, prediction, temporal patterns, and interaction with social determinants of health

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is heterogeneous and our understanding of the biological mechanisms of host response to the novel viral infection remains limited. Identification of meaningful clinical subphenotypes may benefit pathophysiological study, clinical practice, and clinical trials. Here, our aim was to derive and validate COVID-19 subphenotypes using machine learning and routinely collected clinical data, assess temporal patterns of these subphenotypes during the pandemic course, and examine their interaction with social determinants of health (SDoH). We retrospectively analyzed 14418 COVID-19 patients in five major medical centers in New York City (NYC), between March 1 and June 12, 2020. Using clustering analysis, four biologically distinct subphenotypes were derived in the development cohort (N = 8199). Importantly, the identified subphenotypes were highly predictive of clinical outcomes (especially 60-day mortality). Sensitivity analyses in the development cohort, and re-derivation and prediction in the internal (N = 3519) and external (N = 3519) validation cohorts confirmed the reproducibility and usability of the subphenotypes. Further analyses showed varying subphenotype prevalence across the peak of the outbreak in NYC. We also found that SDoH specifically influenced mortality outcome in Subphenotype IV, which is associated with older age, worse clinical manifestation, and high comorbidity burden. Our findings may lead to a better understanding of how COVID-19 causes disease in different populations and potentially benefit clinical trial development. The temporal patterns and SDoH implications of the subphenotypes may add new insights to health policy to reduce social disparity in the pandemic.

Machine learning analysis highlights the down-trending of the proportion of COVID-19 patients with a distinct laboratory result profile

BackgroundNew York City (NYC) experienced an initial surge and gradual decline in the number of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in 2020. A change in the pattern of laboratory test results in COVID-19 patients over this time has not been reported or correlated with patient outcome. MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of routine laboratory and SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test results from 5,785 patients evaluated in a NYC hospital emergency department from March to June employing machine learning analysis. ResultsA COVID-19 high-risk laboratory test result profile (COVID19-HRP), consisting of 21 routine blood tests, was identified to characterize the SARS-CoV-2 patients. Approximately half of the SARS-CoV-2 positive patients had the distinct COVID19-HRP that separated them from SARS-CoV-2 negative patients. SARS-CoV-2 patients with the COVID19-HRP had higher SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, determined by cycle-threshold values from the RT-PCR, and poorer clinical outcome compared to other positive patients without COVID19-HRP. Furthermore, the percentage of SARS-CoV-2 patients with the COVID19-HRP has significantly decreased from March/April to May/June. Notably, viral load in the SARS-CoV-2 patients declined and their laboratory profile became less distinguishable from SARS-CoV-2 negative patients in the later phase. ConclusionsOur study visualized the down-trending of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 patients with the distinct COVID19-HRP. This analysis could become an important tool in COVID-19 population disease severity tracking and prediction. In addition, this analysis may play an important role in prioritizing high-risk patients, assisting in patient triaging and optimizing the usage of resources.

Characteristics of 24,516 Patients Diagnosed with COVID-19 Illness in a National Clinical Research Network: Results from PCORnet

BackgroundNational data from diverse institutions across the United States are critical for guiding policymakers as well as clinical and public health leaders. This study characterized a large national cohort of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the U.S., compared to patients diagnosed with viral pneumonia and influenza. Methods and FindingsWe captured cross-sectional information from 36 large healthcare systems in 29 U.S. states, participating in PCORnet(R), the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. Patients included were those diagnosed with COVID-19, viral pneumonia and influenza in any care setting, starting from January 1, 2020. Using distributed queries executed at each participating institution, we acquired information for patients on care setting (any, ambulatory, inpatient or emergency department, mechanical ventilator), age, sex, race, state, comorbidities (assessed with diagnostic codes), and medications used for treatment of COVID-19 (hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin; corticosteroids, anti-interleukin-6 agents). During this time period, 24,516 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19, with 42% in an emergency department or inpatient hospital setting; 79,639 were diagnosed with viral pneumonia (53% inpatient/ED) and 163,984 with influenza (41% inpatient/ED). Among COVID-19 patients, 68% were 20 to <65 years of age, with more of the hospitalized/ED patients in older age ranges (23% 65+ years vs. 12% for COVID-19 patients in the ambulatory setting). Patients with viral pneumonia were of a similar age, and patients with influenza were much younger. Comorbidities were common, especially for patients with COVID-19 and viral pneumonia, with hypertension (32% for COVID-19 and 46% for viral pneumonia), arrhythmias (20% and 35%), and pulmonary disease (19% and 40%) the most common. Hydroxychloroquine was used in treatment for 33% and tocilizumab for 11% of COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilators (25% received azithromycin as well). Conclusion and RelevancePCORnet leverages existing data to capture information on one of the largest U.S. cohorts to date of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 compared to patients diagnosed with viral pneumonia and influenza.

Identifying organ dysfunction trajectory-based subphenotypes in critically ill patients with COVID-19

RationaleCOVID-19-associated respiratory failure offers the unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the differential host response to a uniform pathogenic insult. Prior studies of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) have identified subphenotypes with differential outcomes. Understanding whether there are distinct subphenotypes of severe COVID-19 may offer insight into its pathophysiology. ObjectivesTo identify and characterize distinct subphenotypes of COVID-19 critical illness defined by the post-intubation trajectory of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. MethodsIntubated COVID-19 patients at two hospitals in New York city were leveraged as development and validation cohorts. Patients were grouped into mild, intermediate, and severe strata by their baseline post-intubation SOFA. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering was performed within each stratum to detect subphenotypes based on similarities amongst SOFA score trajectories evaluated by Dynamic Time Warping. Statistical tests defined trajectory subphenotype predictive markers. Measurements and Main ResultsDistinct worsening and recovering subphenotypes were identified within each stratum, which had distinct 7-day post-intubation SOFA progression trends. Patients in the worsening suphenotypes had a higher mortality than those in the recovering subphenotypes within each stratum (mild stratum, 29.7% vs. 10.3%, p=0.033; intermediate stratum, 29.3% vs. 8.0%, p=0.002; severe stratum, 53.7% vs. 22.2%, p<0.001). Worsening and recovering subphenotypes were replicated in the validation cohort. Routine laboratory tests, vital signs, and respiratory variables rather than demographics and comorbidities were predictive of the worsening and recovering subphenotypes. ConclusionsThere are clear worsening and recovering subphenotypes of COVID-19 respiratory failure after intubation, which are more predictive of outcomes than baseline severity of illness. Organ dysfunction trajectory may be well suited as a surrogate for research in COVID-19 respiratory failure. At a Glance CommentaryO_ST_ABSScientific Knowledge on the SubjectC_ST_ABSCOVID-19 associated respiratory failure leads to a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. It is clear that there is heterogeneity in the viral-induced host response leading to differential outcomes, even amongst those treated with mechanical ventilation. There are many studies of COVID-19 disease which use intubation status as an outcome or an inclusion criterion. However, there is less understanding of the post intubation course in COVID-19. What This Study Adds to the FieldWe have developed and validated a novel subphenotyping model based on post-intubation organ dysfunction trajectory in COVID-19 patients. Specifically, we identified clear worsening and recovering organ dysfunction trajectory subphenotypes, which are more predictive of outcomes than illness severity at baseline. Dynamic inflammatory markers and ventilator variables rather than baseline severity of illness, demographics and comorbidities differentiate the worsening and recovering subphenotypes. Trajectory subphenotypes offer a potential road map for understanding the evolution of critical illness in COVID-19.

Routine laboratory blood tests predict SARS-CoV-2 infection using machine learning

BackgroundAccurate diagnostic strategies to rapidly identify SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals for management of patient care and protection of health care personnel are urgently needed. The predominant diagnostic test is viral RNA detection by RT-PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs specimens, however the results are not promptly obtainable in all patient care locations. Routine laboratory testing, in contrast, is readily available with a turn-around time (TAT) usually within 1-2 hours. MethodWe developed a machine learning model incorporating patient demographic features (age, sex, race) with 27 routine laboratory tests to predict an individuals SARS-CoV-2 infection status. Laboratory test results obtained within two days before the release of SARS-CoV-2-RT-PCR result were used to train a gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT) model from 3,356 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tested patients (1,402 positive and 1,954 negative) evaluated at a metropolitan hospital. ResultsThe model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.854 (95% CI: 0.829-0.878). Application of this model to an independent patient dataset from a separate hospital resulted in a comparable AUC (0.838), validating the generalization of its use. Moreover, our model predicted initial SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity in 66% individuals whose RT-PCR result changed from negative to positive within two days. ConclusionThis model employing routine laboratory test results offers opportunities for early and rapid identification of high-risk SARS-CoV-2 infected patients before their RT-PCR results are available. It may play an important role in assisting the identification of SARS-COV-2 infected patients in areas where RT-PCR testing is not accessible due to financial or supply constraints.