Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Unrestricted quality of seeds in European broad-leaved tree species growing at the cold boundary of their distribution.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The low-temperature range limit of tree species may be determined by their ability to produce and disperse viable seeds. Biological processes such as flowering, pollen transfer, pollen tube growth, fertilization, embryogenesis and seed maturation are expected to be affected by cold temperatures. The aim of this study was to assess the quality of seeds of nine broad-leaved tree species close to their elevational limit. METHODS: We studied nine, mostly widely distributed, European broad-leaved tree species in the genera Acer, Fagus, Fraxinus, Ilex, Laburnum, Quercus, Sorbus and Tilia. For each species, seeds were collected from stands close to optimal growth conditions (low elevation) and from marginal stands (highest elevation), replicated in two regions in the Swiss Alps. Measurements included seed weight, seed size, storage tissue quality, seed viability and germination success. KEY RESULTS: All species examined produced a lot of viable seeds at their current high-elevation range limit during a summer ranked 'normal' by long-term temperature records. Low- and high-elevation seed sources showed hardly any trait differences. The concentration of non-structural carbohydrates tended to be higher at high elevation. Additionally, in one species, Sorbus aucuparia, all measured traits showed significantly higher seed quality in high-elevation seed sources. CONCLUSIONS: For the broad-leaved tree taxa studied, the results are not in agreement with the hypothesis of reduced quality of seeds in trees at their high-elevation range limits. Under the current climatic conditions, seed quality does not constitute a serious constraint in the reproduction of these broad-leaved tree species at their high-elevation limit.