A methodological approach of QRA for slow-moving landslides at a regional scale.

Landslides represent a serious worldwide hazard, especially in Italy, where exposure to hydrogeological risk is very high; for this reason, a landslide quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is crucial for risk management and for planning mitigation measures. In this study, we present and describe a novel methodological approach of QRA for slow-moving landslides, aiming at national replicability. This procedure has been applied at the basin scale in the Arno River basin (9100 km2, Central Italy), where most landslides are slow-moving. QRA is based on the application of the equation risk = hazard (H) × vulnerability (V) × exposure (E) and on the use of open data with uniform characteristics at the national scale. The study area was divided into a grid with a 1 km2 cell size, and for each cell, the parameters necessary for the risk assessment were calculated. The obtained results show that the total risk of the study area amounts to approximately 7 billion €. The proposed methodology presents several novelties in the risk assessment for the regional/national scale of the analysis, mainly concerning the identification of the datasets and the development of new methodologies that could be applicable over such large areas. The present work demonstrates the feasibility of the methodology and discusses the obtained results.

Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings due to Land Subsidence using InSAR Data in the Ancient Historical City of Pistoia (Italy).

The launch of the medium resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 constellation in 2014 has allowed public and private organizations to introduce SAR interferometry (InSAR) products as a valuable option in their monitoring systems. The massive stacks of displacement data resulting from the processing of large C-B and radar images can be used to highlight temporal and spatial deformation anomalies, and their detailed analysis and postprocessing to generate operative products for final users. In this work, the wide-area mapping capability of Sentinel-1 was used in synergy with the COSMO-SkyMed high resolution SAR data to characterize ground subsidence affecting the urban fabric of the city of Pistoia (Tuscany Region, central Italy). Line of sight velocities were decomposed on vertical and E-W components, observing slight horizontal movements towards the center of the subsidence area. Vertical displacements and damage field surveys allowed for the calculation of the probability of damage depending on the displacement velocity by means of fragility curves. Finally, these data were translated to damage probability and potential loss maps. These products are useful for urban planning and geohazard management, focusing on the identification of the most hazardous areas on which to concentrate efforts and resources.

Author Correction: Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR.

We demonstrate the potential of satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to identify precursors to catastrophic slope failures. To date, early-warning has mostly relied on the availability of detailed, high-frequency data from sensors installed in situ. The same purpose could not be chased through spaceborne monitoring applications, as these could not yield information acquired in sufficiently systematic fashion. Here we present three sets of Sentinel-1 constellation images processed by means of multi-interferometric analysis. We detect clear trends of accelerating displacement prior to the catastrophic failure of three large slopes of very different nature: an open-pit mine slope, a natural rock slope in alpine terrain, and a tailings dam embankment. We determine that these events could have been located several days or weeks in advance. The results highlight that satellite InSAR may now be used to support decision making and enhance predictive ability for this type of hazard.

Continuous, semi-automatic monitoring of ground deformation using Sentinel-1 satellites.

We present the continuous monitoring of ground deformation at regional scale using ESA (European Space Agency) Sentinel-1constellation of satellites. We discuss this operational monitoring service through the case study of the Tuscany Region (Central Italy), selected due to its peculiar geological setting prone to ground instability phenomena. We set up a systematic processing chain of Sentinel-1 acquisitions to create continuously updated ground deformation data to mark the transition from static satellite analysis, based on the analysis of archive images, to dynamic monitoring of ground displacement. Displacement time series, systematically updated with the most recent available Sentinel-1 acquisition, are analysed to identify anomalous points (i.e., points where a change in the dynamic of motion is occurring). The presence of a cluster of persistent anomalies affecting elements at risk determines a significant level of risk, with the necessity of further analysis. Here, we show that the Sentinel-1 constellation can be used for continuous and systematic tracking of ground deformation phenomena at the regional scale. Our results demonstrate how satellite data, acquired with short revisiting times and promptly processed, can contribute to the detection of changes in ground deformation patterns and can act as a key information layer for risk mitigation.