Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions.

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.

Venous thromboembolism in association with features of the metabolic syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Central obesity, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia and chronic hypertension--features of the metabolic syndrome--have been individually associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, whether each of these factors additively increases the risk of VTE is uncertain. AIM: To determine whether features of the metabolic syndrome independently increase the risk of VTE. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study derived from the Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation 2 (HOPE-2) randomized clinical trial. SETTING: One hundred and forty-five clinical centres in 13 countries. METHODS: We studied 5522 adults aged > or =55 years with cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus. At enrollment, 35% had 0-1 features of the metabolic syndrome, 30% had two, 24% had three and 11% had four. We defined symptomatic VTE as an objectively confirmed new episode of deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. RESULTS: VTE occurred in 88 individuals during a median 5.0 years of follow-up. The incidence rate of VTE (per 100 person-years) was 0.30 with 0-1 features, 0.36 with two features, 0.38 with three features and 0.40 with four features of the metabolic syndrome (trend p = 0.43). Relative to the presence of 0-1 features of the metabolic syndrome, the adjusted hazard ratio (95%CI) for VTE was 1.22 (0.71-2.08) with two features, 1.25 (0.70-2.24) with three features, and 1.26 (0.59-2.69) with four features. DISCUSSION: The number of features of the metabolic syndrome present was not a clinically important risk factor for VTE in older adults with vascular arterial disease.

Measures of distress in 26 "environmentally ill" subjects.

The authors report on measures of distress in 26 subjects who had been diagnosed with environmental illness (EI) by a "clinical ecologist." EI subjects were more likely than control subjects to meet criteria for one or more personality disorder diagnoses assessed with the Structured Interview for DSM-III Personality Disorders and exhibited more somatic, mood, and anxiety symptoms assessed with the Symptom Checklist-90-R and the Illness Behavior Questionnaire. The authors conclude that subjects receiving this diagnosis may suffer from unrecognized psychological distress, which may account for some or all of the symptoms that had resulted in a diagnosis of EI.

Environmental illness. A controlled study of 26 subjects with '20th century disease'.

Environmental illness is a polysymptomatic disorder believed by "clinical ecologists" to result from immune dysregulation brought on by common foods and chemicals. We systematically evaluated 26 subjects who had been assigned a diagnosis of environmental illness. The subjects indicated a strong interest in their diagnosis, were generally satisfied with their clinical ecologist, and were dissatisfied with traditional medical approaches. Subjects reported varying treatments, including dietary restrictions, avoidance of offending agents, and physical treatments. Using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, we found that 15 (65%) of 23 subjects met criteria for a current or past mood, anxiety, or somatoform disorder compared with 13 (28%) of 46 age- and sex-matched community controls. We conclude that patients receiving this diagnosis may have one or more commonly recognized psychiatric disorders that could explain some or all of their symptoms.