Optimal futility stopping boundaries for binary endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Group sequential designs incorporating the option to stop for futility at the time point of an interim analysis can save time and resources. Thereby, the choice of the futility boundary importantly impacts the design's resulting performance characteristics, including the power and probability to correctly or wrongly stop for futility. Several authors contributed to the topic of selecting good futility boundaries. For binary endpoints, Simon's designs (Control Clin Trials 10:1-10, 1989) are commonly used two-stage designs for single-arm phase II studies incorporating futility stopping. However, Simon's optimal design frequently yields an undesirably high probability of falsely declaring futility after the first stage, and in Simon's minimax design often a high proportion of the planned sample size is already evaluated at the interim analysis leaving only limited benefit in case of an early stop. METHODS: This work focuses on the optimality criteria introduced by Schüler et al. (BMC Med Res Methodol 17:119, 2017) and extends their approach to binary endpoints in single-arm phase II studies. An algorithm for deriving optimized futility boundaries is introduced, and the performance of study designs implementing this concept of optimal futility boundaries is compared to the common Simon's minimax and optimal designs, as well as modified versions of these designs by Kim et al. (Oncotarget 10:4255-61, 2019). RESULTS: The introduced optimized futility boundaries aim to maximize the probability of correctly stopping for futility in case of small or opposite effects while also setting constraints on the time point of the interim analysis, the power loss, and the probability of stopping the study wrongly, i.e. stopping the study even though the treatment effect shows promise. Overall, the operating characteristics, such as maximum sample size and expected sample size, are comparable to those of the classical and modified Simon's designs and sometimes better. Unlike Simon's designs, which have binding stopping rules, the optimized futility boundaries proposed here are not adjusted to exhaust the full targeted nominal significance level and are thus still valid for non-binding applications. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the futility boundary and the time point of the interim analysis have a major impact on the properties of the study design. Therefore, they should be thoroughly investigated at the planning stage. The introduced method of selecting optimal futility boundaries provides a more flexible alternative to Simon's designs with non-binding stopping rules. The probability of wrongly stopping for futility is minimized and the optimized futility boundaries don't exhibit the unfavorable properties of an undesirably high probability of falsely declaring futility or a high proportion of the planned sample evaluated at the interim time point.

Point estimation, confidence intervals, and P-values for optimal adaptive two-stage designs with normal endpoints.

Due to the dependency structure in the sampling process, adaptive trial designs create challenges in point and interval estimation and in the calculation of P-values. Optimal adaptive designs, which are designs where the parameters governing the adaptivity are chosen to maximize some performance criterion, suffer from the same problem. Various analysis methods which are able to handle this dependency structure have already been developed. In this work, we aim to give a comprehensive summary of these methods and show how they can be applied to the class of designs with planned adaptivity, of which optimal adaptive designs are an important member. The defining feature of these kinds of designs is that the adaptive elements are completely prespecified. This allows for explicit descriptions of the calculations involved, which makes it possible to evaluate different methods in a fast and accurate manner. We will explain how to do so, and present an extensive comparison of the performance characteristics of various estimators between an optimal adaptive design and its group-sequential counterpart.

Extension of a conditional performance score for sample size recalculation rules to the setting of binary endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculation is a central aspect in planning of clinical trials. The sample size is calculated based on parameter assumptions, like the treatment effect and the endpoint's variance. A fundamental problem of this approach is that the true distribution parameters are not known before the trial. Hence, sample size calculation always contains a certain degree of uncertainty, leading to the risk of underpowering or oversizing a trial. One way to cope with this uncertainty are adaptive designs. Adaptive designs allow to adjust the sample size during an interim analysis. There is a large number of such recalculation rules to choose from. To guide the choice of a suitable adaptive design with sample size recalculation, previous literature suggests a conditional performance score for studies with a normally distributed endpoint. However, binary endpoints are also frequently applied in clinical trials and the application of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints is not yet investigated. METHODS: We extend the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints by suggesting a related one-dimensional score parametrization. We moreover perform a simulation study to evaluate the operational characteristics and to illustrate application. RESULTS: We find that the score definition can be extended without modification to the case of binary endpoints. We represent the score results by a single distribution parameter, and therefore derive a single effect measure, which contains the difference in proportions [Formula: see text] between the intervention and the control group, as well as the endpoint proportion [Formula: see text] in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: This research extends the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints and demonstrates its application in practice.

Plasma NGAL levels in stable kidney transplant recipients and the risk of allograft loss.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and calprotectin (CPT) to predict long-term graft survival in stable kidney transplant recipients (KTR). METHODS: A total of 709 stable outpatient KTR were enrolled >2 months post-transplant. The utility of plasma and urinary NGAL (pNGAL, uNGAL) and plasma and urinary CPT at enrollment to predict death-censored graft loss was evaluated during a 58-month follow-up. RESULTS: Among biomarkers, pNGAL showed the best predictive ability for graft loss and was the only biomarker with an area under the curve (AUC) > 0.7 for graft loss within 5 years. Patients with graft loss within 5 years (n = 49) had a median pNGAL of 304 [interquartile range (IQR) 235-358] versus 182 (IQR 128-246) ng/mL with surviving grafts (P < .001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analyses at 58 months indicated an AUC for pNGAL of 0.795, serum creatinine-based Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) had an AUC of 0.866. pNGAL added to a model based on conventional risk factors for graft loss with death as competing risk (age, transplant age, presence of donor-specific antibodies, presence of proteinuria, history of delayed graft function) had a strong independent association with graft loss {subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) for binary log-transformed pNGAL [log2(pNGAL)] 3.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.24-5.15, P < .0001}. This association was substantially attenuated when eGFR was added to the model [sHR for log2(pNGAL) 1.63, 95% CI 0.92-2.88, P = .095]. Category-free net reclassification improvement of a risk model including log2(pNGAL) in addition to conventional risk factors and eGFR was 54.3% (95% CI 9.2%-99.3%) but C-statistic did not improve significantly. CONCLUSIONS: pNGAL was an independent predictor of renal allograft loss in stable KTR from one transplant center but did not show consistent added value when compared with baseline predictors including the conventional marker eGFR. Future studies in larger cohorts are warranted.

Minimally Invasive Breast Biopsy After Neoadjuvant Systemic Treatment to Identify Breast Cancer Patients with Residual Disease for Extended Neoadjuvant Treatment: A New Concept.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer patients with residual disease after neoadjuvant systemic treatment (NAST) have a worse prognosis compared with those achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR). Earlier identification of these patients might allow timely, extended neoadjuvant treatment strategies. We explored the feasibility of a vacuum-assisted biopsy (VAB) after NAST to identify patients with residual disease (ypT+ or ypN+) prior to surgery. METHODS: We used data from a multicenter trial, collected at 21 study sites (NCT02948764). The trial included women with cT1-3, cN0/+ breast cancer undergoing routine post-neoadjuvant imaging (ultrasound, MRI, mammography) and VAB prior to surgery. We compared the findings of VAB and routine imaging with the histopathologic evaluation of the surgical specimen. RESULTS: Of 398 patients, 34 patients with missing ypN status and 127 patients with luminal tumors were excluded. Among the remaining 237 patients, tumor cells in the VAB indicated a surgical non-pCR in all patients (73/73, positive predictive value [PPV] 100%), whereas PPV of routine imaging after NAST was 56.0% (75/134). Sensitivity of the VAB was 72.3% (73/101), and 74.3% for sensitivity of imaging (75/101). CONCLUSION: Residual cancer found in a VAB specimen after NAST always corresponds to non-pCR. Residual cancer assumed on routine imaging after NAST corresponds to actual residual cancer in about half of patients. Response assessment by VAB is not safe for the exclusion of residual cancer. Response assessment by biopsies after NAST may allow studying the new concept of extended neoadjuvant treatment for patients with residual disease in future trials.

Protocol of the Berlin Long-term Observation of Vascular Events (BeLOVE): a prospective cohort study with deep phenotyping and long-term follow up of cardiovascular high-risk patients.

INTRODUCTION: The Berlin Long-term Observation of Vascular Events is a prospective cohort study that aims to improve prediction and disease-overarching mechanistic understanding of cardiovascular (CV) disease progression by comprehensively investigating a high-risk patient population with different organ manifestations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A total of 8000 adult patients will be recruited who have either suffered an acute CV event (CVE) requiring hospitalisation or who have not experienced a recent acute CVE but are at high CV risk. An initial study examination is performed during the acute treatment phase of the index CVE or after inclusion into the chronic high risk arm. Deep phenotyping is then performed after ~90 days and includes assessments of the patient's medical history, health status and behaviour, cardiovascular, nutritional, metabolic, and anthropometric parameters, and patient-related outcome measures. Biospecimens are collected for analyses including 'OMICs' technologies (e.g., genomics, metabolomics, proteomics). Subcohorts undergo MRI of the brain, heart, lung and kidney, as well as more comprehensive metabolic, neurological and CV examinations. All participants are followed up for up to 10 years to assess clinical outcomes, primarily major adverse CVEs and patient-reported (value-based) outcomes. State-of-the-art clinical research methods, as well as emerging techniques from systems medicine and artificial intelligence, will be used to identify associations between patient characteristics, longitudinal changes and outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin ethics committee (EA1/066/17). The results of the study will be disseminated through international peer-reviewed publications and congress presentations. STUDY REGISTRATION: First study phase: Approved WHO primary register: German Clinical Trials Register: https://drks.de/search/de/trial/DRKS00016852; WHO International Clinical Registry Platform: http://apps.who.int/trialsearch/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=DRKS00016852. Recruitment started on July 18, 2017.Second study phase: Approved WHO primary register: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00023323, date of registration: November 4, 2020, URL: http://www.drks.de/ DRKS00023323. Recruitment started on January 1, 2021.

Using short-term endpoints to improve interim decision making and trial duration in two-stage phase II trials with nested binary endpoints.

In oncology, phase II clinical trials are often planned as single-arm two-stage designs with a binary endpoint, for example, progression-free survival after 12 months, and the option to stop for futility after the first stage. Simon's two-stage design is a very popular approach but depending on the follow-up time required to measure the patients' outcomes the trial may have to be paused undesirably long. To shorten this forced interruption, it was proposed to use a short-term endpoint for the interim decision, such as progression-free survival after 3 months. We show that if the assumptions for the short-term endpoint are misspecified, the decision-making in the interim can be misleading, resulting in a great loss of statistical power. For the setting of a binary endpoint with nested measurements, such as progression-free survival, we propose two approaches that utilize all available short-term and long-term assessments of the endpoint to guide the interim decision. One approach is based on conditional power and the other is based on Bayesian posterior predictive probability of success. In extensive simulations, we show that both methods perform similarly, when appropriately calibrated, and can greatly improve power compared to the existing approach in settings with slow patient recruitment. Software code to implement the methods is made publicly available.

Prevalence estimates of major depressive disorder in 27 European countries from the European Health Interview Survey: accounting for imperfect diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-8.

BACKGROUND: Cut-offs on self-report depression screening tools are designed to identify many more people than those who meet criteria for major depressive disorder. In a recent analysis of the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), the percentage of participants with Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (PHQ-8) scores ≥10 was reported as major depression prevalence. OBJECTIVE: We used a Bayesian framework to re-analyse EHIS PHQ-8 data, accounting for the imperfect diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-8. METHODS: The EHIS is a cross-sectional, population-based survey in 27 countries across Europe with 258 888 participants from the general population. We incorporated evidence from a comprehensive individual participant data meta-analysis on the accuracy of the PHQ-8 cut-off of ≥10. We evaluated the joint posterior distribution to estimate the major depression prevalence, prevalence differences between countries and compared with previous EHIS results. FINDINGS: Overall, major depression prevalence was 2.1% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.0% to 3.8%). Mean posterior prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% (0.0% to 1.9%) in the Czech Republic to 4.2% (0.2% to 11.3%) in Iceland. Accounting for the imperfect diagnostic accuracy resulted in insufficient power to establish prevalence differences. 76.4% (38.0% to 96.0%) of observed positive tests were estimated to be false positives. Prevalence was lower than the 6.4% (95% CI 6.2% to 6.5%) estimated previously. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence estimation needs to account for imperfect diagnostic accuracy. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Major depression prevalence in European countries is likely lower than previously reported on the basis of the EHIS survey.

Potential of Lesion-to-Fat Elasticity Ratio Measured by Shear Wave Elastography to Reduce Benign Biopsies in BI-RADS 4 Breast Lesions.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated whether lesion-to-fat ratio measured by shear wave elastography in patients with Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 3 or 4 lesions has the potential to further refine the assessment of B-mode ultrasound alone in breast cancer diagnostics. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of an international diagnostic multicenter trial (NCT02638935). Data from 1288 women with breast lesions categorized as BI-RADS 3 and 4a-c by conventional B-mode ultrasound were analyzed, whereby the focus was placed on differentiating lesions categorized as BI-RADS 3 and BI-RADS 4a. All women underwent shear wave elastography and histopathologic evaluation functioning as reference standard. Reduction of benign biopsies as well as the number of missed malignancies after reclassification using lesion-to-fat ratio measured by shear wave elastography were evaluated. RESULTS: Breast cancer was diagnosed in 368 (28.6%) of 1288 lesions. The assessment with conventional B-mode ultrasound resulted in 53.8% (495 of 1288) pathologically benign lesions categorized as BI-RADS 4 and therefore false positives as well as in 1.39% (6 of 431) undetected malignancies categorized as BI-RADS 3. Additional lesion-to-fat ratio in BI-RADS 4a lesions with a cutoff value of 1.85 resulted in 30.11% biopsies of benign lesions which correspond to a reduction of 44.04% of false positives. CONCLUSIONS: Adding lesion-to-fat ratio measured by shear wave elastography to conventional B-mode ultrasound in BI-RADS 4a breast lesions could help reduce the number of benign biopsies by 44.04%. At the same time, however, 1.98% of malignancies were missed, which would still be in line with American College of Radiology BI-RADS 3 definition of <2% of undetected malignancies.

Causal Model Building in the Context of Cardiac Rehabilitation: A Systematic Review.

Randomization is an effective design option to prevent bias from confounding in the evaluation of the causal effect of interventions on outcomes. However, in some cases, randomization is not possible, making subsequent adjustment for confounders essential to obtain valid results. Several methods exist to adjust for confounding, with multivariable modeling being among the most widely used. The main challenge is to determine which variables should be included in the causal model and to specify appropriate functional relations for continuous variables in the model. While the statistical literature gives a variety of recommendations on how to build multivariable regression models in practice, this guidance is often unknown to applied researchers. We set out to investigate the current practice of explanatory regression modeling to control confounding in the field of cardiac rehabilitation, for which mainly non-randomized observational studies are available. In particular, we conducted a systematic methods review to identify and compare statistical methodology with respect to statistical model building in the context of the existing recent systematic review CROS-II, which evaluated the prognostic effect of cardiac rehabilitation. CROS-II identified 28 observational studies, which were published between 2004 and 2018. Our methods review revealed that 24 (86%) of the included studies used methods to adjust for confounding. Of these, 11 (46%) mentioned how the variables were selected and two studies (8%) considered functional forms for continuous variables. The use of background knowledge for variable selection was barely reported and data-driven variable selection methods were applied frequently. We conclude that in the majority of studies, the methods used to develop models to investigate the effect of cardiac rehabilitation on outcomes do not meet common criteria for appropriate statistical model building and that reporting often lacks precision.

The Potential of Shear Wave Elastography to Reduce Unnecessary Biopsies in Breast Cancer Diagnosis: An International, Diagnostic, Multicenter Trial.

PURPOSE: In this prospective, multicenter trial we evaluated whether additional shear wave elastography (SWE) for patients with BI-RADS 3 or 4 lesions on breast ultrasound could further refine the assessment with B-mode breast ultrasound for breast cancer diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed prospective, multicenter, international data from 1288 women with breast lesions rated by conventional 2 D B-mode ultrasound as BI-RADS 3 to 4c and undergoing 2D-SWE. After reclassification with SWE the proportion of undetected malignancies should be < 2 %. All patients underwent histopathologic evaluation (reference standard). RESULTS: Histopathologic evaluation showed malignancy in 368 of 1288 lesions (28.6 %). The assessment with B-mode breast ultrasound resulted in 1.39 % (6 of 431) undetected malignancies (malignant lesions in BI-RADS 3) and 53.80 % (495 of 920) unnecessary biopsies (biopsies in benign lesions). Re-classifying BI-RADS 4a patients with a SWE cutoff of 2.55 m/s resulted in 1.98 % (11 of 556) undetected malignancies and a reduction of 24.24 % (375 vs. 495) of unnecessary biopsies. CONCLUSION: A SWE value below 2.55 m/s for BI-RADS 4a lesions could be used to downstage these lesions to follow-up, and therefore reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies by 24.24 %. However, this would come at the expense of some additionally missed cancers compared to B-mode breast ultrasound (rate of undetected malignancies 1.98 %, 11 of 556, versus 1.39 %, 6 of 431) which would, however, still be in line with the ACR BI-RADS 3 definition (< 2 % of undetected malignancies).

Two-stage designs with small sample sizes.

When applying group-sequential designs in clinical trials with normally distributed outcomes, approximate critical values are often applied. Here, normally distributed test statistics are assumed which, however, are in fact t-distributed. For small sample sizes, the approximation may lead to a serious inflation of the type I error rate. Recently, a method for computing the exact critical boundaries assuring type I error rate control was proposed and the critical boundaries for Pocock- and O'Brien-Fleming-like group-sequential designs were provided. For designs with one interim analysis, we present six alternative designs, which also control the type I error rate and in addition allow flexible design modifications. We compare the characteristics of these 6 two-stage designs. It is shown that considerable sample size savings can be achieved by including futility stopping and by optimizing the designs. Therefore, for clinical trials with small sample sizes as, for example, in the area of rare diseases, optimal two-stage designs with futility stopping may be a valuable alternative to classical group-sequential designs.

Optimization of the two-stage group sequential three-arm gold-standard design for non-inferiority trials.

If design parameters are chosen appropriately, group sequential trial designs are known to be able to reduce the expected sample size under the alternative hypothesis compared to single-stage designs. The same holds true for the so-called 'gold-standard' design for non-inferiority trials, a design involving an experimental group, an active control group, and a placebo group. However, choosing design parameters that maximize the advantages of a two-stage approach for the three-arm gold-standard design for non-inferiority trials is not a straightforward task. In particular, optimal choices of futility boundaries for this design have not been thoroughly discussed in existing literature. We present a variation of the hierarchical testing procedure, which allows for the incorporation of binding futility boundaries at interim analyses. We show that this procedure maintains strong control of the family-wise type I error rate. Within this framework, we consider the futility and efficacy boundaries as well as the sample size allocation ratios as optimization parameters. This allows the investigation of the efficiency gain from including the option to stop for futility in addition to the ability to stop for efficacy. To analyze the extended designs, optimality criteria that include the design's performance under the alternative as well as the null hypothesis are introduced. On top of this, we discuss methods to limit the allocation of placebo patients in the trial while maintaining relatively good operating characteristics. The results of our numerical optimization procedure are discussed and a comparison of different approaches to designing a three-arm gold-standard non-inferiority trial is provided.

Intelligent multi-modal shear wave elastography to reduce unnecessary biopsies in breast cancer diagnosis (INSPiRED 002): a retrospective, international, multicentre analysis.

BACKGROUND: Breast ultrasound identifies additional carcinomas not detected in mammography but has a higher rate of false-positive findings. We evaluated whether use of intelligent multi-modal shear wave elastography (SWE) can reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies without impairing the breast cancer detection rate. METHODS: We trained, tested, and validated machine learning algorithms using SWE, clinical, and patient information to classify breast masses. We used data from 857 women who underwent B-mode breast ultrasound, SWE, and subsequent histopathologic evaluation at 12 study sites in seven countries from 2016 to 2019. Algorithms were trained and tested on data from 11 of the 12 sites and externally validated using the additional site's data. We compared findings to the histopathologic evaluation and compared the diagnostic performance between B-mode breast ultrasound, traditional SWE, and intelligent multi-modal SWE. RESULTS: In the external validation set (n = 285), intelligent multi-modal SWE showed a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI, 97.1-100%, 126 of 126), a specificity of 50.3% (95% CI, 42.3-58.3%, 80 of 159), and an area under the curve of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.96). Diagnostic performance was significantly higher compared to traditional SWE and B-mode breast ultrasound (P < 0.001). Unlike traditional SWE, positive-predictive values of intelligent multi-modal SWE were significantly higher compared to B-mode breast ultrasound. Unnecessary biopsies were reduced by 50.3% (79 versus 159, P < 0.001) without missing cancer compared to B-mode ultrasound. CONCLUSION: The majority of unnecessary breast biopsies might be safely avoided by using intelligent multi-modal SWE. These results may be helpful to reduce diagnostic burden for patients, providers, and healthcare systems.

Performance evaluation of a new prognostic-efficacy-combination design in the context of telemedical interventions.

AIMS: Telemedical interventions in heart failure patients intend to avoid unfavourable, indication-related events by an early, individualized care, which reacts to the current patients need. However, telemedical support is an expensive intervention, and usually only patients with high risk for unfavourable follow-up events will be able to profit from it. Möckel et al. therefore adapted a new design which we call 'prognostic-efficacy-combination design'. This design allows to define a biomarker cut-off and to perform a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in a biomarker-selected population within a single study. However, so far, it has not been evaluated if this double use of the control group for biomarker cut-off definition and efficacy assessment within the RCT leads to a bias in treatment effect estimation. In this methodological research work, we therefore want to evaluate whether the 'prognostic-efficacy-combination design' leads to biased treatment effect estimates and also compare it to alternative designs. If there is a bias, we further want to analyse its magnitude under different parameter settings. METHODS: We perform a systematic Monte Carlo simulation study to investigate among others potential bias, root mean square error and sensitivity, and specificity as well as the total treatment effect estimate in various realistic trial scenarios that mimic and vary the true data characteristics of the published TIM-HF2 Trial. In particular, we vary the event proportion, the sample size, the biomarker distribution, and the lower bound for the sensitivity. RESULTS: The results show that indeed the proposed design leads to some bias in the effect estimators, indicating an overestimation of the effect. However, this bias is relatively small in most scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The 'prognostic-efficacy-combination design' can generally be recommended for clinical applications due to its efficiency compared to two separate trials. We recommend a sufficiently large sample size depending on the trial scenario. Our simulation code can be adapted to explore suitable sample sizes for other settings.

Rationale and design of the prevention of paclitaxel-related neurological side effects with lithium trial - Protocol of a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo- controlled proof-of-concept phase-2 clinical trial.

Introduction: Chemotherapy-induced polyneuropathy (CIPN) and post-chemotherapy cognitive impairment (PCCI) are frequent side effects of paclitaxel treatment. CIPN/PCCI are potentially irreversible, reduce quality of life and often lead to treatment limitations, which affect patients' outcome. We previously demonstrated that paclitaxel enhances an interaction of the Neuronal calcium sensor-1 protein (NCS-1) with the Inositol-1,4,5-trisphosphate receptor (InsP3R), which disrupts calcium homeostasis and triggers neuronal cell death via the calcium-dependent protease calpain in dorsal root ganglia neurons and neuronal precursor cells. Prophylactic treatment of rodents with lithium inhibits the NCS1-InsP3R interaction and ameliorates paclitaxel-induced polyneuropathy and cognitive impairment, which is in part supported by limited retrospective clinical data in patients treated with lithium carbonate at the time of chemotherapy. Currently no data are available from a prospective clinical trial to demonstrate its efficacy. Methods and analysis: The PREPARE study will be conducted as a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase-2 trial with parallel group design. N = 84 patients with breast cancer will be randomized 1:1 to either lithium carbonate treatment (targeted serum concentration 0.5-0.8 mmol/l) or placebo with sham dose adjustments as add-on to (nab-) paclitaxel. The primary endpoint is the validated Total Neuropathy Score reduced (TNSr) at 2 weeks after the last (nab-) paclitaxel infusion. The aim is to show that the lithium carbonate group is superior to the placebo group, meaning that the mean TNSr after (nab-) paclitaxel is lower in the lithium carbonate group than in the placebo group. Secondary endpoints include: (1) severity of CIPN, (2) amount and dose of pain medication, (3) cumulative dose of (nab-) paclitaxel, (4) patient-reported symptoms of CIPN, quality of life and symptoms of anxiety and depression, (5) severity of cognitive impairment, (6) hippocampal volume and changes in structural/functional connectivity and (7) serum Neurofilament light chain protein concentrations. Ethics and dissemination: The study protocol was approved by the Berlin ethics committee (reference: 21/232 - IV E 10) and the respective federal agency (Bundesinstitut für Arzneimittel und Medizinprodukte, reference: 61-3910-4044771). The results of the study will be published in peer-reviewed medical journals as well as presented at relevant (inter)national conferences. Clinical trial registration: [https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00027165], identifier [DRKS00027165].

Using Background Knowledge from Preceding Studies for Building a Random Forest Prediction Model: A Plasmode Simulation Study.

There is an increasing interest in machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting patient outcomes, as these methods are designed to automatically discover complex data patterns. For example, the random forest (RF) algorithm is designed to identify relevant predictor variables out of a large set of candidates. In addition, researchers may also use external information for variable selection to improve model interpretability and variable selection accuracy, thereby prediction quality. However, it is unclear to which extent, if at all, RF and ML methods may benefit from external information. In this paper, we examine the usefulness of external information from prior variable selection studies that used traditional statistical modeling approaches such as the Lasso, or suboptimal methods such as univariate selection. We conducted a plasmode simulation study based on subsampling a data set from a pharmacoepidemiologic study with nearly 200,000 individuals, two binary outcomes and 1152 candidate predictor (mainly sparse binary) variables. When the scope of candidate predictors was reduced based on external knowledge RF models achieved better calibration, that is, better agreement of predictions and observed outcome rates. However, prediction quality measured by cross-entropy, AUROC or the Brier score did not improve. We recommend appraising the methodological quality of studies that serve as an external information source for future prediction model development.

Optimal unplanned design modification in adaptive two-stage trials.

Adaptive planning of clinical trials allows modifying the entire trial design at any time point mid-course. In this paper, we consider the case when a trial-external update of the planning assumptions during the ongoing trial makes an unforeseen design adaptation necessary. We take up the idea to construct adaptive designs with defined features by solving an optimization problem and apply it to the situation of unplanned design reassessment. By using the conditional error principle, we present an approach on how to optimally modify the trial design at an unplanned interim analysis while at the same time strictly protecting the type I error rate. This linking of optimal design planning and the conditional error principle allows sound reactions to unforeseen events that make a design reassessment necessary.