Modeling pediatric antibiotic use in an area of declining malaria prevalence.

In malaria-endemic areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, overlap of clinical symptoms between malarial and non-malarial febrile illnesses can lead to empiric use of antibiotics among children. Our study aimed to illustrate the potential impact of decreasing malaria prevalence from malaria control efforts on antibiotic use. We constructed a probabilistic decision tree model representing antibiotic prescription in febrile children < 5 years. This model was used to predict change in absolute antibiotic use compared to baseline under levels of decreasing malaria prevalence. Model parameters were based on data from a hospital study in Ghana and validated via literature review. The baseline prevalence of malaria diagnoses was 52% among all hospitalized children. For our main results, we reported outcomes for a scenario representing a 50% decrease in malaria prevalence. Compared to baseline, absolute antibiotic prescription decreased from a baseline of 639 doses (95% CI 574-694) to 575 (95% CI 502-638). This reflected a 10% (95% CI 7%-13%) decrease in absolute antibiotic use. Our findings demonstrate that effective malaria control can reduce pediatric antibiotic use. However, until substantial progress is made in developing accurate diagnostics for non-malarial febrile illnesses, further reductions in antibiotic use will remain a challenge.

Understanding pre-hospital disease management of fever and diarrhoea in children-Care pathways in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: Many children in sub-Saharan Africa die from infectious diseases like malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea that can be prevented by early diagnosis, effective and targeted treatment. This study aimed to gain insights into case management practices by parents before they present their children to hospital. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 332 parents attending a district hospital with their under-fives symptomatic with fever and/or diarrhoea between November 2019 and July 2020 in rural Tanzania. Timely and targeted treatment was defined as seeking health care within 24 h of fever onset, and continued fluid intake in case of diarrhoea. RESULTS: The main admission diagnoses were acute respiratory infections (61.8%), malaria (25.3%), diarrhoea (18.4%) and suspected sepsis (8.1%). The majority of children (91%) received treatment prior to admission, mostly antipyretics (75.6%), local herbal medicines (26.8%), and antibiotics (17.8%)-half of them without prescription from a clinician. For diarrhoea, the use of oral rehydration solution was rare (9.0%), although perceived as easily accessible and affordable. 49.4% of the parents presented their children directly to the hospital, 23.2% went to a pharmacy/drug shop and 19.3% to a primary health facility first. Malaria symptoms began mostly 3 days before the hospital visit; only 25.4% of febrile children visited any health facility within 24 h of disease onset. Prior use of local herbal medicine (AOR = 3.2; 95% CI 1.4-7.3), visiting the pharmacy (adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-9.8), the dispensary being the nearest health facility (AOR = 3.0; 95% CI: 1.5-6.2), and financial difficulties (AOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.5) were associated with delayed treatment. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that antipyretics and antibiotics dispensed at pharmacies/drug shops, as well as use of local herbal medicines, delay early diagnosis and treatment, which can be life-threatening. Pharmacies/drug shops could be integrated as key focal points for sensitising community members on how to respond to paediatric illnesses and encourage the use of oral rehydration solutions.

Fever in focus: Symptoms, diagnoses and treatment of febrile children in Ghana-A longitudinal hospital study.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare resources are often limited in areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This makes accurate and timely diagnoses challenging and delays treatment of childhood febrile illness. We explored longitudinal characteristics related to symptoms, diagnosis and treatment of hospitalised febrile children in a rural area of Ghana highly endemic for malaria. METHODS: Febrile children under 15 years, admitted to the study hospital paediatric ward, were recruited to the study and clinical data were collected throughout hospitalisation. Descriptive statistics were reported for all cases; for longitudinal analyses, a subset of visits with limited missing data was used. RESULTS: There were 801 hospitalised children included in longitudinal analyses. Malaria (n = 581, 73%) and sepsis (n = 373, 47%) were the most prevalent suspected diagnoses on admission. One-third of malaria suspected diagnoses (n = 192, 33%) were changed on the discharge diagnosis, compared to 84% (n = 315) of sepsis suspected diagnoses. Among malaria-only discharge diagnoses, 98% (n/N = 202/207) received an antimalarial and 33% (n/N = 69/207) an antibiotic; among discharge diagnoses without malaria, 28% (n/N = 108/389) received an antimalarial and 83% (n/N = 324/389) an antibiotic. CONCLUSIONS: Suspected diagnoses were largely based on clinical presentation and were frequently changed; changed diagnoses were associated with lingering symptoms, underscoring the need for faster and more accurate diagnostics. Medications were over-prescribed regardless of diagnosis stability, possibly because of a lack of confidence in suspected diagnoses. Thus, better diagnostic tools are needed for childhood febrile illnesses to enhance the accuracy of and confidence in diagnoses, and to cut down unjustified medication use, reducing the risk of antimicrobial and malaria resistance.

Comparing effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral therapy between peri-urban and rural clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Viral suppression (VS) is the hallmark of successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. We sought to compare clinic retention, virological outcomes, drug resistance and mortality between peri-urban and rural settings in South Africa after first-line ART. METHODS: Beginning in July 2014, 1000 (500 peri-urban and 500 rural) ART-naïve patients with HIV were enrolled and managed according to local standard of care. Clinic retention, virological suppression, virological failure (VF), genotypic drug resistance and mortality were assessed. The definition of VS was a viral load ≤1000 copies/ml. Time to event analyses were stratified by site, median age and gender. Kaplan-Meier curves were calculated and graphed with log-rank modelling to compare curves. RESULTS: Based on 2741 patient-years of follow-up, retention and mortality did not differ between sites. Among all 1000 participants, 47%, 84% and 91% had achieved VS by 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively, which was observed earlier in the peri-urban site. At both sites, men aged < 32 years had the highest proportion of VF (15.5%), while women aged > 32 years had the lowest, at 7.1% (p = 0.018). Among 55 genotypes, 42 (76.4%) had at one or more resistance mutations, which did not differ by site. K103N (59%) and M184V (52%) were the most common mutations, followed by V106M and K65R (31% each). Overall, death was infrequent (< 4%). CONCLUSIONS: No significant differences in treatment outcomes between peri-urban and rural clinics were observed. In both settings, young men were especially susceptible to clinic attrition and VF. More effective adherence support for this important demographic group is needed to achieve UNAIDS targets.