Extreme rotational events in a forced-damped nonlinear pendulum.

Since Galileo's time, the pendulum has evolved into one of the most exciting physical objects in mathematical modeling due to its vast range of applications for studying various oscillatory dynamics, including bifurcations and chaos, under various interests. This well-deserved focus aids in comprehending various oscillatory physical phenomena that can be reduced to the equations of the pendulum. The present article focuses on the rotational dynamics of the two-dimensional forced-damped pendulum under the influence of the ac and dc torque. Interestingly, we are able to detect a range of the pendulum's length for which the angular velocity exhibits a few intermittent extreme rotational events that deviate significantly from a certain well-defined threshold. The statistics of the return intervals between these extreme rotational events are supported by our data to be spread exponentially at a specific pendulum's length beyond which the external dc and ac torque are no longer sufficient for a full rotation around the pivot. The numerical results show a sudden increase in the size of the chaotic attractor due to interior crisis, which is the source of instability that is responsible for triggering large amplitude events in our system. We also notice the occurrence of phase slips with the appearance of extreme rotational events when the phase difference between the instantaneous phase of the system and the externally applied ac torque is observed.

Resetting-mediated navigation of an active Brownian searcher in a homogeneous topography.

Designing navigation strategies for search-time optimization remains of interest in various interdisciplinary branches in science. Herein, we focus on active Brownian walkers in noisy and confined environments, which are mediated by one such autonomous strategy, namely stochastic resetting. As such, resetting stops the motion and compels the walkers to restart from the initial configuration intermittently. The resetting clock is operated externally without any influence from the searchers. In particular, the resetting coordinates are either quenched (fixed) or annealed (fluctuating) over the entire topography. Although the strategy relies upon simple governing laws of motion, it shows a significant ramification for the search-time statistics, in contrast to the search process conducted by the underlying reset-free dynamics. Using extensive numerical simulations, we show that the resetting-driven protocols enhance the performance of these active searchers. This, however, depends robustly on the inherent search-time fluctuations, measured by the coefficient of variation of the underlying reset-free process. We also explore the effects of different boundaries and rotational diffusion constants on the search-time fluctuations in the presence of resetting. Notably, for the annealed condition, resetting is always found to expedite the search process. These features, as well as their applicability to more general optimization problems from queuing systems, computer science and randomized numerical algorithms, to active living systems such as enzyme turnover and backtracking recovery of RNA polymerases in gene expression, make resetting-based strategies universally promising.

Extreme events in a complex network: Interplay between degree distribution and repulsive interaction.

The role of topological heterogeneity in the origin of extreme events in a network is investigated here. The dynamics of the oscillators associated with the nodes are assumed to be identical and influenced by mean-field repulsive interactions. An interplay of topological heterogeneity and the repulsive interaction between the dynamical units of the network triggers extreme events in the nodes when each node succumbs to such events for discretely different ranges of repulsive coupling. A high degree node is vulnerable to weaker repulsive interactions, while a low degree node is susceptible to stronger interactions. As a result, the formation of extreme events changes position with increasing strength of repulsive interaction from high to low degree nodes. Extreme events at any node are identified with the appearance of occasional large-amplitude events (amplitude of the temporal dynamics) that are larger than a threshold height and rare in occurrence, which we confirm by estimating the probability distribution of all events. Extreme events appear at any oscillator near the boundary of transition from rotation to libration at a critical value of the repulsive coupling strength. To explore the phenomenon, a paradigmatic second-order phase model is used to represent the dynamics of the oscillator associated with each node. We make an annealed network approximation to reduce our original model and, thereby, confirm the dual role of the repulsive interaction and the degree of a node in the origin of extreme events in any oscillator associated with a node.

Optimized ensemble deep learning framework for scalable forecasting of dynamics containing extreme events.

The remarkable flexibility and adaptability of both deep learning models and ensemble methods have led to the proliferation for their application in understanding many physical phenomena. Traditionally, these two techniques have largely been treated as independent methodologies in practical applications. This study develops an optimized ensemble deep learning framework wherein these two machine learning techniques are jointly used to achieve synergistic improvements in model accuracy, stability, scalability, and reproducibility, prompting a new wave of applications in the forecasting of dynamics. Unpredictability is considered one of the key features of chaotic dynamics; therefore, forecasting such dynamics of nonlinear systems is a relevant issue in the scientific community. It becomes more challenging when the prediction of extreme events is the focus issue for us. In this circumstance, the proposed optimized ensemble deep learning (OEDL) model based on a best convex combination of feed-forward neural networks, reservoir computing, and long short-term memory can play a key role in advancing predictions of dynamics consisting of extreme events. The combined framework can generate the best out-of-sample performance than the individual deep learners and standard ensemble framework for both numerically simulated and real-world data sets. We exhibit the outstanding performance of the OEDL framework for forecasting extreme events generated from a Liénard-type system, prediction of COVID-19 cases in Brazil, dengue cases in San Juan, and sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region.

Phase coalescence in a population of heterogeneous Kuramoto oscillators.

Phase coalescence (PC) is an emerging phenomenon in an ensemble of oscillators that manifests itself as a spontaneous rise in the order parameter. This increment in the order parameter is due to the overlaying of oscillator phases to a pre-existing system state. In the current work, we present a comprehensive analysis of the phenomenon of phase coalescence observed in a population of Kuramoto phase oscillators. The given population is divided into responsive and non-responsive oscillators depending on the position of the phases of the oscillators. The responsive set of oscillators is then reset by a pulse perturbation. This resetting leads to a temporary rise in a macroscopic observable, namely, order parameter. The provoked rise thus induced in the order parameter is followed by unprovoked increments separated by a constant time τPC. These unprovoked increments in the order parameter are caused due to a temporary gathering of the oscillator phases in a configuration similar to the initial system state, i.e., the state of the network immediately following the perturbation. A theoretical framework corroborating this phenomenon as well as the corresponding simulation results are presented. Dependence of τPC and the magnitude of spontaneous order parameter augmentation on various network parameters such as coupling strength, network size, degree of the network, and frequency distribution are then explored. The size of the phase resetting region would also affect the magnitude of the order parameter at τPC since it directly affects the number of oscillators reset by the perturbation. Therefore, the dependence of order parameter on the size of the phase resetting region is also analyzed.

Mitigating long transient time in deterministic systems by resetting.

How long does a trajectory take to reach a stable equilibrium point in the basin of attraction of a dynamical system? This is a question of quite general interest and has stimulated a lot of activities in dynamical and stochastic systems where the metric of this estimation is often known as the transient or first passage time. In nonlinear systems, one often experiences long transients due to their underlying dynamics. We apply resetting or restart, an emerging concept in statistical physics and stochastic process, to mitigate the detrimental effects of prolonged transients in deterministic dynamical systems. We show that resetting the intrinsic dynamics intermittently to a spatial control line that passes through the equilibrium point can dramatically expedite its completion, resulting in a huge reduction in mean transient time and fluctuations around it. Moreover, our study reveals the emergence of an optimal restart time that globally minimizes the mean transient time. We corroborate the results with detailed numerical studies on two canonical setups in deterministic dynamical systems, namely, the Stuart-Landau oscillator and the Lorenz system. The key features-expedition of transient time-are found to be very generic under different resetting strategies. Our analysis opens up a door to control the mean and fluctuations in transient time by unifying the original dynamics with an external stochastic or periodic timer and poses open questions on the optimal way to harness transients in dynamical systems.

Understanding the origin of extreme events in El Niño southern oscillation.

We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Niño southern oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the attractor occurs at a critical system parameter via a type of interior crisis. This interior crisis evolves through merging of a cascade of period-doubling and period-adding bifurcations that leads to the origin of occasional amplitude-modulated extremely large events. More categorically, a situation similar to homoclinic chaos arises near the critical point; however, atypical global instability evolves as a channellike structure in phase space of the system that modulates variability of amplitude and return time of the occasional large events and makes a difference from the homoclinic chaos. The slow-fast timescale of the low-dimensional model plays an important role on the onset of occasional extremely large events. Such extreme events are characterized by their heights when they exceed a threshold level measured by a mean-excess function. The probability density of events' height displays multimodal distribution with an upper-bounded tail. We identify the dependence structure of interevent intervals to understand the predictability of return time of such extreme events using autoregressive integrated moving average model and box-plot analysis.

Extreme events in a network of heterogeneous Josephson junctions.

We report intermittent large spiking events in a heterogeneous network of forced Josephson junctions under the influence of repulsive interaction. The response of the individual junctions has been inspected instead of the collective response of the ensemble, which reveals the large spiking events in a subpopulation with characteristic features of extreme events (EE). The network splits into three clusters of junctions, one in coherent libration, one in incoherent rotational motion, and another subpopulation originating EE, which resembles a chimeralike pattern. EE migrates spatially from one to another subpopulation of junctions with the repulsive strength. The origin of EE in a subpopulation and chimera pattern is a generic effect of distributed damping parameter and repulsive interaction, which we verify with another network of the Liénard system. EE originates in the subpopulation via a local riddling of in-phase synchronization. The probability density function of event heights confirms the rare occurrence of large events and the return time of EE as expressed by interevent intervals in the subgroup follows a Poisson distribution. The mechanism of the origin of such a unique clustering is explained qualitatively.

Intermittent large deviation of chaotic trajectory in Ikeda map: Signature of extreme events.

We notice signatures of extreme eventslike behavior in a laser based Ikeda map. The trajectory of the system occasionally travels a large distance away from the bounded chaotic region, which appears as intermittent spiking events in the temporal dynamics. The large spiking events satisfy the conditions of extreme events as usually observed in dynamical systems. The probability density function of the large spiking events shows a long-tail distribution consistent with the characteristics of rare events. The interevent intervals obey a Poissonlike distribution. We locate the parameter regions of extreme events in phase diagrams. Furthermore, we study two Ikeda maps to explore how and when extreme events terminate via mutual interaction. A pure diffusion of information exchange is unable to terminate extreme events where synchronous occurrence of extreme events is only possible even for large interaction. On the other hand, a threshold-activated coupling can terminate extreme events above a critical value of mutual interaction.