An explanation for unexpected population crashes in a constant environment.

Unexpected population crashes are an important feature of natural systems, yet many observed crashes have not been explained. Two difficulties in explaining population crashes are their relative rarity and the multi-causal nature of ecological systems. We approach this issue with experimental microcosms, with large numbers of replicates of red flour beetle populations (Tribolium castaneum). We determined that population crashes are caused by an interaction between stochasticity and successive episodes of density dependence: demographic stochasticity in oviposition rates occasionally produces a high density of eggs; so high that there are insufficient flour resources for subsequent larvae. This mechanism can explain unexpected population crashes in more general settings: stochasticity 'pushes' population into a regime where density dependence is severely overcompensatory. The interaction between nonlinearity and stochasticity also produces chaotic population dynamics and a double-humped one-generation population map, suggesting further possibilities for unexpected behaviour in a range of systems. We discuss the generality of our proposed mechanism, which could potentially account for previously inexplicable population crashes.

Temporal vs. spatial variation in stress-associated metabolites within a population of climate-sensitive small mammals.

Temporal variation in stress might signify changes in an animal's internal or external environment, while spatial variation in stress might signify variation in the quality of the habitats that individual animals experience. Habitat-induced variations in stress might be easiest to detect in highly territorial animals, and especially in species that do not take advantage of common strategies for modulating habitat-induced stress, such as migration (escape in space) or hibernation (escape in time). Spatial and temporal variation in response to potential stressors has received little study in wild animals, especially at scales appropriate for relating stress to specific habitat characteristics. Here, we use the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a territorial small mammal, to investigate stress response within and among territories. For individually territorial animals such as pikas, differences in habitat quality should lead to differences in stress exhibited by territory owners. We indexed stress using stress-associated hormone metabolites in feces collected non-invasively from pika territories every 2 weeks from June to September 2018. We hypothesized that differences in territory quality would lead to spatial differences in mean stress and that seasonal variation in physiology or the physical environment would lead to synchronous variation across territories through time. We used linear mixed-effects models to explore spatiotemporal variation in stress using fixed effects of day-of-year and broad habitat characteristics (elevation, aspect, site), as well as local variation in habitat characteristics hypothesized to affect territory quality for this saxicolous species (talus depth, clast size, available forage types). We found that temporal variation within territories was greater than spatial variation among territories, suggesting that shared seasonal stressors are more influential than differences in individual habitat quality. This approach could be used in other wildlife studies to refine our understanding of habitat quality and its effect on individual stress levels as a driver of population decline.

No evidence for enzootic plague within black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations.

Yersinia pestis, causative agent of plague, occurs throughout the western United States in rodent populations and periodically causes epizootics in susceptible species, including black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). How Y. pestis persists long-term in the environment between these epizootics is poorly understood but multiple mechanisms have been proposed, including, among others, a separate enzootic transmission cycle that maintains Y. pestis without involvement of epizootic hosts and persistence of Y. pestis within epizootic host populations without causing high mortality within those populations. We live-trapped and collected fleas from black-tailed prairie dogs and other mammal species from sites with and without black-tailed prairie dogs in 2004 and 2005 and tested all fleas for presence of Y. pestis. Y. pestis was not detected in 2126 fleas collected in 2004 but was detected in 294 fleas collected from multiple sites in 2005, before and during a widespread epizootic that drastically reduced black-tailed prairie dog populations in the affected colonies. Temporal and spatial patterns of Y. pestis occurrence in fleas and genotyping of Y. pestis present in some infected fleas suggest Y. pestis was introduced multiple times from sources outside the study area and once introduced, was dispersed between several sites. We conclude Y. pestis likely was not present in these black-tailed prairie dog colonies prior to epizootic activity in these colonies. Although we did not identify likely enzootic hosts, we found evidence that deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) may serve as bridging hosts for Y. pestis between unknown enzootic hosts and black-tailed prairie dogs.

Genomic variation in the American pika: signatures of geographic isolation and implications for conservation.

BACKGROUND: Distributional responses by alpine taxa to repeated, glacial-interglacial cycles throughout the last two million years have significantly influenced the spatial genetic structure of populations. These effects have been exacerbated for the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a small alpine lagomorph constrained by thermal sensitivity and a limited dispersal capacity. As a species of conservation concern, long-term lack of gene flow has important consequences for landscape genetic structure and levels of diversity within populations. Here, we use reduced representation sequencing (ddRADseq) to provide a genome-wide perspective on patterns of genetic variation across pika populations representing distinct subspecies. To investigate how landscape and environmental features shape genetic variation, we collected genetic samples from distinct geographic regions as well as across finer spatial scales in two geographically proximate mountain ranges of eastern Nevada. RESULTS: Our genome-wide analyses corroborate range-wide, mitochondrial subspecific designations and reveal pronounced fine-scale population structure between the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range of eastern Nevada. Populations in Nevada were characterized by low genetic diversity (π = 0.0006-0.0009; θW = 0.0005-0.0007) relative to populations in California (π = 0.0014-0.0019; θW = 0.0011-0.0017) and the Rocky Mountains (π = 0.0025-0.0027; θW = 0.0021-0.0024), indicating substantial genetic drift in these isolated populations. Tajima's D was positive for all sites (D = 0.240-0.811), consistent with recent contraction in population sizes range-wide. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial influences of geography, elevation and climate variables on genetic differentiation were also detected and may interact with the regional effects of anthropogenic climate change to force the loss of unique genetic lineages through continued population extirpations in the Great Basin and Sierra Nevada.

Vector-Borne Pathogens in Ectoparasites Collected from High-Elevation Pika Populations.

The American pika, Ochotona princeps, is projected to decline throughout North America as climate change reduces its range, and pikas have already disappeared from several locations. In addition to climate, disease spillover from lower elevation mammalian species might affect pikas. We sampled pika fleas in Colorado and Montana across elevations ranging from 2896 to 3612 m and screened them for the presence of DNA from rodent-associated bacterial pathogens (Bartonella species and Yersinia pestis) to test the hypothesis that flea exchange between pikas and rodents may lead to occurrence of rodent-associated pathogens in pika ectoparasites. We collected 275 fleas from 74 individual pikas at 5 sites in Colorado and one site in Montana. We found that 5.5% of 275 pika fleas in this study tested positive for rodent-associated Bartonella DNA but that variation in Bartonella infection prevalence in fleas among sites was not driven by elevation. Specifically, we detected DNA sequences from two loci (gltA and rpoB) that are most similar to Bartonella grahamii isolates collected from rodents in Canada. We did not detect Y. pestis DNA in our survey. Our results demonstrate evidence of rodent-associated flea-borne bacteria in pika fleas. These findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that rodent-associated pathogens could be acquired by pikas. Flea-borne pathogen spillover from rodents to pikas has the potential to exacerbate the more direct effects of climate that have been suggested to drive pika declines.

Assessing trends and vulnerabilities in the mutualism between whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) in national parks of the Sierra-Cascade region.

Dispersal of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), a keystone species of many high-elevation ecosystems in western North America, depends on Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana Wilson), a seed-caching bird with an affinity for whitebark seeds. To the extent that this dependence is mutual, declines in whitebark seed production could cause declines in nutcracker abundance. Whitebark pine is in decline across much of its range due to interacting stressors, including the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola J. C. Fisch.). We used avian point-count data and tree surveys from four national park units to investigate whether trends in whitebark pine can explain trends in Clark's nutcracker. Spatial trends were modeled using recent data from two parks, while temporal trends were modeled using longer time-series of nutcracker and whitebark data from two additional parks. To assess the potential dependence of nutcrackers on whitebark, we linked a model of nutcracker density (accounting for detection probability) with a model of whitebark trends, using a Bayesian framework to translate uncertainty in whitebark metrics to uncertainty in nutcracker density. In Mount Rainier National Park, temporal models showed dramatic declines in nutcracker density concurrent with significant increases in whitebark crown mortality and trees infected with white pine blister rust. However, nutcrackers did not trend with whitebark metrics in North Cascades National Park Service Complex. In spatial models of data from Yosemite National Park and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park, nutcracker density varied not only with local cover of whitebark but also with elevation and, in Sequoia-Kings Canyon, with cover of another species of white pine. Our results add support for the hypothesis that the mutualism between whitebark pine and Clark's nutcracker is vulnerable to disruption by blister rust, and our approach integrates data across monitoring programs to explore trends in species interactions.

Changes in Perceived Self-efficacy of Physical Therapist Students Following a Pediatric Experiential Learning Opportunity.

PURPOSE: Physical therapists (PT) must be competent to treat patients across the lifespan, from pediatrics through geriatrics. Increasing the amount of experiential learning (EL) in pediatrics presents an opportunity for students to improve their self-efficacy in communication and patient handling. The purpose was to investigate changes in PT students' perceived self-efficacy in communication and patient handling following a structured and focused 8-week EL opportunity with a pediatric population. METHODS: Thirty-two PT students completed the Pediatric Communication and Handling Self-Efficacy Scale before and after an 8-week pediatric EL opportunity. A paired-samples t test was performed to assess changes in students' self-efficacy levels of communication and patient handling. RESULTS: Perceived self-efficacy levels significantly improved in regard to students' communication and patient handling skills following a pediatric EL opportunity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce the benefits of incorporating pediatric EL opportunities into the DPT curriculum as an effective learning strategy in pediatric education.

Identification of a contact zone and hybridization for two subspecies of the American pika (Ochotona princeps) within a single protected area.

Genetic variation is the basis upon which natural selection acts to yield evolutionary change. In a rapidly changing environment, increasing genetic variation should increase evolutionary potential, particularly for small, isolated populations. However, the introduction of new alleles, either through natural or human-mediated processes, may have unpredictable consequences such as outbreeding depression. In this study, we identified a contact zone and limited gene flow between historically separated genetic lineages of American pikas (Ochotona princeps), representing the northern and southern Rocky Mountain subspecies, within Rocky Mountain National Park. The limited spatial extent of gene flow observed may be the result of geographic barriers to dispersal, selection against hybrid individuals, or both. Our fine-scale population genetic analysis suggests gene flow is limited but not completely obstructed by extreme topography such as glacial valleys, as well as streams including the Colorado River. The discovery of two subspecies within this single protected area has implications for monitoring and management, particularly in the light of recent analyses suggesting that the pikas in this park are vulnerable to fragmentation and local extinction under future projected climates. Future research should focus on the fitness consequences of introgression among distinct genetic lineages in this location and elsewhere, as well as within the context of genetic rescue as a conservation and management strategy for a climate sensitive species.

Rethinking the Match: A Proposal for Modern Matchmaking.

Since the 1950s, the National Resident Matching Program, or "the Match," has governed the placement of medical students into residencies. The Match was created to protect students in an era when residency positions outnumbered applicants and hospitals pressured students early in their academic careers to commit to a residency position. Now, however, applicants outnumber positions, applicants are applying to increasing numbers of programs, and the costs of the Match for applicants and programs are high. Meanwhile, medical education is evolving toward a competency-based approach, a U.S. physician shortage is predicted, and some researchers describe a "July effect"-worse clinical outcomes correlated with the mass entry of new residents.Against this background, the authors argue for adopting a more modern, free-market approach to residency matchmaking that might better suit the needs of applicants, programs, and the public. They propose allowing students who have been identified by their medical schools as having achieved graduation-level competency to apply to residency programs at any point during the year. Residency programs would set their own application timetables and extend offers in an ongoing fashion. Students, counseled by their schools, would accept or decline offers as desired. The authors argue this approach would better support competency-based education while allowing applicants and programs more choice regarding how they engage and adapt within the selection process. The approach's staggered start times for new residents might attenuate the July effect and improve outcomes for patients. Medical students might also enter and thereby complete residency earlier, increasing the physician workforce.

Individual-based analysis of hair corticosterone reveals factors influencing chronic stress in the American pika.

Glucocorticoids are often measured in wildlife to assess physiological responses to environmental or ecological stress. Hair, blood, saliva, or fecal samples are generally used depending on the timescale of the stress response being investigated and species-specific considerations. Here, we report the first use of hair samples to measure long-term corticosterone levels in the climate-sensitive American pika (Ochotona princeps). We validated an immunoassay-based measurement of corticosterone extracted from hair samples and compared corticosterone estimates obtained from plasma, hair, and fecal samples of nine pikas. To demonstrate an ecological application of this technique, we characterized physiological stress in 49 pikas sampled and released at eight sites along two elevational transects. Microclimate variation was measured at each site using both ambient and subsurface temperature sensors. We used an information theoretic approach to compare support for linear, mixed-effects models relating corticosterone estimates to microclimate, body size, and sex. Corticosterone was measured accurately in pika hair samples after correcting for the influence of sample mass on corticosterone extraction efficiency. Hair- and plasma-based estimates of corticosterone were weakly correlated. The best-supported model suggested that corticosterone was lower in larger, male pikas, and at locations with higher ambient temperatures in summer. Our results are consistent with a general negative relationship between body mass and glucocorticoid concentration observed across mammalian species, attributed to the higher mass-specific metabolic rates of smaller bodied animals. The higher corticosterone levels in female pikas likely reflected the physiological demands of reproduction, as observed in a wide array of mammalian species. Additionally, we establish the first direct physiological evidence for thermal stress in the American pika through nonlethal sampling of corticosterone. Interestingly, our data suggest evidence for cold stress likely induced during the summer molting period. This technique should provide a useful tool to researchers wishing to assess chronic stress in climate-sensitive mammals.

Rodent-Pika Parasite Spillover in Western North America.

Competition during the Cenozoic expansion of the Rodentia may have contributed to ecological niche reduction of pikas, which are now increasingly under threat as their habitat degrades under global climate change, while some rodents expand their ranges and overlap with pikas. Range overlap carries the possibility of disease spillover. Contemporary North American pikas are cold-adapted and relegated primarily to alpine environments where they subsist on relatively low-quality herbaceous diet. Yet their evolutionary ancestors were distributed geographically even into the subtropics. Here we examine historical and contemporary records of fleas on pikas (Ochotona princeps) from sites at different elevations in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. We calculated indices of diversity from each site and spillover fraction, i.e., the proportion of fleas on pikas that have a preference for rodents. Across this range there are four pika specialist flea species, with no more than two of these per site, and 18 characteristically rodent flea species. Diversity is greatest in the Pacific Northwest and lowest in Montana. Rodent flea spillover onto pikas declines with elevation in the Rocky Mountains. These data provide evidence that rodents and pikas interact enough to allow considerable parasite spillover, and which could be exacerbated as pikas are increasingly stressed by climate change at lower elevations some rodent species expand up-elevation in the face of increasing global warming. With global climate change, both biotic and abiotic niche shrinkage demand our attention.

Multilocus approaches reveal underestimated species diversity and inter-specific gene flow in pikas (Ochotona) from southwestern China.

The phylogeny of living pikas (Ochotonidae, Ochotona) remains obscure, and pika species diversity in southwestern China has never been well explored. In this study, 96 tissue samples from 11 valid species in three classified subgenera (Pika, Ochotona and Conothoa) from 23 locations were characterized using multilocus sequences of 7031bp. Two mitochondrial (CYT B and COI) and five nuclear gene segments (RAG1, RAG2, TTN, OXAIL and IL1RAPL1) were sequenced. We analysed evolutionary histories using maximum likelihood (RAxML) and Bayesian analyses (BEAST), and we also used molecular species delimitation analyses (BPP) to explore species diversity. Our study supported O. syrinx (O. huangensis) as a distinct clade from all named subgenera. Relationships among subgenera were not fully resolved, which may be due to a rapid diversification in the middle Miocene (∼13.90Ma). Conflicting gene trees implied mitochondrial introgression from O. cansus to O. curzoniae. We uncovered three cryptic species from Shaanxi, Sichuan and Yunnan with strong support, suggesting an underestimation of species diversity in the "sky-island" mountains of southwest China.

Replicated landscape genetic and network analyses reveal wide variation in functional connectivity for American pikas.

Landscape connectivity is essential for maintaining viable populations, particularly for species restricted to fragmented habitats or naturally arrayed in metapopulations and facing rapid climate change. The importance of assessing both structural connectivity (physical distribution of favorable habitat patches) and functional connectivity (how species move among habitat patches) for managing such species is well understood. However, the degree to which functional connectivity for a species varies among landscapes, and the resulting implications for conservation, have rarely been assessed. We used a landscape genetics approach to evaluate resistance to gene flow and, thus, to determine how landscape and climate-related variables influence gene flow for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in eight federally managed sites in the western United States. We used empirically derived, individual-based landscape resistance models in conjunction with predictive occupancy models to generate patch-based network models describing functional landscape connectivity. Metareplication across landscapes enabled identification of limiting factors for dispersal that would not otherwise have been apparent. Despite the cool microclimates characteristic of pika habitat, south-facing aspects consistently represented higher resistance to movement, supporting the previous hypothesis that exposure to relatively high temperatures may limit dispersal in American pikas. We found that other barriers to dispersal included areas with a high degree of topographic relief, such as cliffs and ravines, as well as streams and distances greater than 1-4 km depending on the site. Using the empirically derived network models of habitat patch connectivity, we identified habitat patches that were likely disproportionately important for maintaining functional connectivity, areas in which habitat appeared fragmented, and locations that could be targeted for management actions to improve functional connectivity. We concluded that climate change, besides influencing patch occupancy as predicted by other studies, may alter landscape resistance for pikas, thereby influencing functional connectivity through multiple pathways simultaneously. Spatial autocorrelation among genotypes varied across study sites and was largest where habitat was most dispersed, suggesting that dispersal distances increased with habitat fragmentation, up to a point. This study demonstrates how landscape features linked to climate can affect functional connectivity for species with naturally fragmented distributions, and reinforces the importance of replicating studies across landscapes.

When can we measure stress noninvasively? Postdeposition effects on a fecal stress metric confound a multiregional assessment.

Measurement of stress hormone metabolites in fecal samples has become a common method to assess physiological stress in wildlife populations. Glucocorticoid metabolite (GCM) measurements can be collected noninvasively, and studies relating this stress metric to anthropogenic disturbance are increasing. However, environmental characteristics (e.g., temperature) can alter measured GCM concentration when fecal samples cannot be collected immediately after defecation. This effect can confound efforts to separate environmental factors causing predeposition physiological stress in an individual from those acting on a fecal sample postdeposition. We used fecal samples from American pikas (Ochotona princeps) to examine the influence of environmental conditions on GCM concentration by (1) comparing GCM concentration measured in freshly collected control samples to those placed in natural habitats for timed exposure, and (2) relating GCM concentration in samples collected noninvasively throughout the western United States to local environmental characteristics measured before and after deposition. Our timed-exposure trials clarified the spatial scale at which exposure to environmental factors postdeposition influences GCM concentration in pika feces. Also, fecal samples collected from occupied pika habitats throughout the species' range revealed significant relationships between GCM and metrics of climate during the postdeposition period (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation during the month of sample collection). Conversely, we found no such relationships between GCM and metrics of climate during the predeposition period (prior to the month of sample collection). Together, these results indicate that noninvasive measurement of physiological stress in pikas across the western US may be confounded by climatic conditions in the postdeposition environment when samples cannot be collected immediately after defecation. Our results reiterate the importance of considering postdeposition environmental influences on this stress metric, especially in multiregional comparisons. However, measurements of fecal GCM concentration should prove useful for population monitoring within an eco-region or when postdeposition exposure can be minimized.

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.

Relating sub-surface ice features to physiological stress in a climate sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps).

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is considered a sentinel species for detecting ecological effects of climate change. Pikas are declining within a large portion of their range, and ongoing research suggests loss of sub-surface ice as a mechanism. However, no studies have demonstrated physiological responses of pikas to sub-surface ice features. Here we present the first analysis of physiological stress in pikas living in and adjacent to habitats underlain by ice. Fresh fecal samples were collected non-invasively from two adjacent sites in the Rocky Mountains (one with sub-surface ice and one without) and analyzed for glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM). We also measured sub-surface microclimates in each habitat. Results indicate lower GCM concentration in sites with sub-surface ice, suggesting that pikas are less stressed in favorable microclimates resulting from sub-surface ice features. GCM response was well predicted by habitat characteristics associated with sub-surface ice features, such as lower mean summer temperatures. These results suggest that pikas inhabiting areas without sub-surface ice features are experiencing higher levels of physiological stress and may be more susceptible to changing climates. Although post-deposition environmental effects can confound analyses based on fecal GCM, we found no evidence for such effects in this study. Sub-surface ice features are key to water cycling and storage and will likely represent an increasingly important component of water resources in a warming climate. Fecal samples collected from additional watersheds as part of current pika monitoring programs could be used to further characterize relationships between pika stress and sub-surface ice features.

Quantifying the dominance of local control and the sources of regional control in the assembly of a metacommunity.

To understand the relative roles of local and regional processes in structuring local communities, and to compare sources of dispersal, we studied plant species composition in the context of a field experiment in vernal pool community assembly. In 1999, we constructed 256 vernal pools in a grid surrounding a group of over 60 naturally occurring reference pools. Each constructed pool received a seeding or control treatment. Seeding treatments involved several "focal species" native to vernal pools in this region. Earlier analyses identified local habitat quality (pool depth) and pool history (seeding treatment) as strong predictors of local species composition. For the current analysis, we asked how connectivity among pools might enhance models of focal species presence and cover within pools, using long-term data from control pools and from unseeded transects within a stratified random sample of all constructed pools. We fitted connectivity models for each of four focal species, and compared the relative support for connectivity, seeding treatment, and pool depth as predictors of local species presence and cover. We modeled connectivity in several ways to quantify the relative importance of immigration (1) from constructed pools, (2) from reference pools within the study site, (3) from a cluster of natural pools off-site, and (4) along ephemeral waterways. We found strongest support for effects of connectivity with reference pools. Species presence in a target pool was usually well predicted by an exponential decline in connectivity with distance to source pools, and our fitted estimates of mean dispersal distance indicate strong dispersal limitation in this system. Effects of target and source pool size were also supported in some models, and long-term effects of seeding were supported for most species. However, pool depth was by far the strongest predictor of focal species presence, and depth rivaled connectivity with reference pools as a top predictor of cover after accounting for species presence. We conclude that local species composition was determined primarily by local processes in this system, and we encourage more widespread use of a straightforward method for weighing local vs. regional influences.

Determinants of pika population density vs. occupancy in the Southern Rocky Mountains.

Species distributions are responding rapidly to global change. While correlative studies of local extinction have been vital to understanding the ecological impacts of global change, more mechanistic lines of inquiry are needed for enhanced forecasting. The current study assesses whether the predictors of local extinction also explain population density for a species apparently impacted by climate change. We tested a suite of climatic and habitat metrics as predictors of American pika (Ochotona princeps) relative population density in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Population density was indexed as the density of pika latrine sites. Negative binomial regression and AICc showed that the best predictors of pika latrine density were patch area followed by two measures of vegetation quality: the diversity and relative cover of forbs. In contrast with previous studies of habitat occupancy in the Southern Rockies, climatic factors were not among the top predictors of latrine density. Populations may be buffered from decline and ultimately from extirpation at sites with high-quality vegetation. Conversely, populations at highest risk for declining density and extirpation are likely to be those in sites with poor-quality vegetation.

Superficial digital flexor tendonitis in cutting horses: 19 cases (2007-2011).

OBJECTIVE: To characterize superficial digital flexor (SDF) tendon lesions in the forelimbs of cutting horses and determine recurrence rate and prognosis for this condition. DESIGN: Retrospective case series. ANIMALS: 19 cutting horses with SDF tendonitis. PROCEDURES: Medical records for horses evaluated for SDF tendonitis in 2007 through 2011 were reviewed. Data regarding age, sex, lameness grade, affected limb, and treatment were collected. Ultrasonographic images were reviewed, and lesion characteristics were recorded. Follow-up telephone interviews with owners or trainers were conducted to determine recurrence of SDF tendonitis, return of horse to its previous level of activity, and duration of the convalescent period. RESULTS: All 19 horses initially evaluated for SDF tendonitis had similar lesions in the lateral aspect of the tendon. The right forelimb was affected in 11 horses, and the left forelimb was affected in 7 horses; 1 horse was affected in both forelimbs. Mean lameness grade was 1.26 (range, 0 to 3). Of 17 horses for which follow-up information was available, 3 had recurrence of tendon lesions and 1 developed a lesion in the contralateral forelimb SDF tendon; 16 horses returned to their previous level of activity. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The location of SDF tendonitis in cutting horses appeared to be unique in that no central core lesions were detected ultrasonographically. Lesions at the periphery of the tendon may have an increased ability to heal, compared with lesions at the central core. Results suggested that cutting horses with SDF tendonitis have a better prognosis than that reported for affected racehorses.

The idiosyncrasies of place: geographic variation in the climate-distribution relationships of the American pika.

Although climate acts as a fundamental constraint on the distribution of organisms, understanding how this relationship between climate and distribution varies over a species' range is critical for addressing the potential impacts of accelerated climate change on biodiversity. Bioclimatic niche models provide compelling evidence that many species will experience range shifts under scenarios of global change, yet these broad, macroecological perspectives lack specificity at local scales, where unique combinations of environment, biota, and history conspire against generalizations. We explored how these idiosyncrasies of place affect the climate-distribution relationship of the American pika (Ochotona princeps) by replicating intensive field surveys across bioclimatic gradients in eight U.S. national parks. At macroecological scales, the importance of climate as a constraint on pika distribution appears unequivocal; forecasts suggest that the species' range will contract sharply in coming decades. However, the species persists outside of its modeled bioclimatic envelope in many locations, fueling uncertainty and debate over its conservation status. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we modeled variation in local patterns of pika distribution along topographic position, vegetation cover, elevation, temperature, and precipitation gradients in each park landscape. We also accounted for annual turnover in site occupancy probabilities. Topographic position and vegetation cover influenced occurrence in all parks. After accounting for these factors, pika occurrence varied widely among parks along bioclimatic gradients. Precipitation by itself was not a particularly influential predictor. However, measures of heat stress appeared most influential in the driest parks, suggesting an interaction between the strength of climate effects and the position of parks along precipitation gradients. The combination of high elevation, cold temperatures, and high precipitation lowered occurrence probabilities in some parks, suggesting an upper elevational limit for pikas in some environments. Our results demonstrate that the idiosyncrasies of place influence both the nature and strength of the climate-distribution relationship for the American pika. Fine-grained, but geographically extensive, studies replicated across multiple landscapes offer insights important to assessing the impacts of climate change that otherwise may be masked at macroecological scales. The hierarchical approach to modeling provides a coherent conceptual and technical framework for gaining these insights.