Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe.

The European Union is highly dependent on soybean imports from overseas to meet its protein demands. Individual Member States have been quick to declare self-sufficiency targets for plant-based proteins, but detailed strategies are still lacking. Rising global temperatures have painted an image of a bright future for soybean production in Europe, but emerging climatic risks such as drought have so far not been included in any of those outlooks. Here, we present simulations of future soybean production and the most prominent risk factors across Europe using an ensemble of climate and soybean growth models. Projections suggest a substantial increase in potential soybean production area and productivity in Central Europe, while southern European production would become increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation. Average productivity would rise by 8.3% (RCP 4.5) to 8.7% (RCP 8.5) as a result of improved growing conditions (plant physiology benefiting from rising temperature and CO2 levels) and farmers adapting to them by using cultivars with longer phenological cycles. Suitable production area would rise by 31.4% (RCP 4.5) to 37.7% (RCP 8.5) by the mid-century, contributing considerably more than productivity increase to the production potential for closing the protein gap in Europe. While wet conditions at harvest and incidental cold spells are the current key challenges for extending soybean production, the models and climate data analysis anticipate that drought and heat will become the dominant limitations in the future. Breeding for heat-tolerant and water-efficient genotypes is needed to further improve soybean adaptation to changing climatic conditions.

Hidradenitis Suppurativa Influences Tattooing Practice in Women.

BACKGROUND: The reasons or the motivations that compel people to get a tattoo or a body piercing (BP) are plentiful and personal. Patients with chronic cutaneous or systemic conditions may be interested in getting tattooed or pierced. OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of body art practices in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) and to evaluate the possible impact of HS in the decision-making process. METHODS: An anonymous specific paper-based questionnaire was prospectively offered to patients (≥18 years) consecutively managed for HS from September 2016 to March 2017 in a French specialized center. RESULTS: In total, 209 patients participated in the study, of whom 77 (37%) and 50 (24%) had tattoos and BP, respectively. These proportions were higher than those reported in the French population. HS prevented the decision to get a BP or a tattoo in 2 and 5%, respectively (fear of infection or healing difficulties). Fifteen patients (7%) got tattooed to hide a surgical HS scar (n = 5, 2%), to regain control over the pain or their bodies (n = 9, 4%), or to turn others' eyes away from HS lesions or scars (n = 1, 0.5%). HS severity influenced a proportion of patients who intended to get a new tattoo. CONCLUSION: HS is associated with a significant increase in body art practices.

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Exposure to pesticides and risk of childhood cancer: a meta-analysis of recent epidemiological studies.

OBJECTIVES: The authors performed a meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies to clarify the possible relationship between exposure to pesticides and childhood cancers. METHODS: Two cohort and 38 case-control studies were selected for the first meta-analysis. After evaluating homogeneity among studies using the Cochran Q test, the authors calculated a pooled meta-OR stratified on each cancer site. The authors then constructed a list of variables believed to play an important role in explaining the relation between parental exposure to pesticide and childhood cancer, and performed a series of meta-analyses. The authors also performed a distinct meta-analysis for three cohort studies with RR data. RESULTS: Meta-analysis of the three cohort studies did not show any positive links between parental pesticide exposure and childhood cancer incidence. However, the meta-analysis of the 40 studies with OR values showed that the risk of lymphoma and leukaemia increased significantly in exposed children when their mother was exposed during the prenatal period (OR=1.53; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.91 and OR=1.48; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.75). The risk of brain cancer was correlated with paternal exposure either before or after birth (OR=1.49; 95% CI 1.23 to 1.79 and OR=1.66; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.49). The OR of leukaemia and lymphoma was higher when the mother was exposed to pesticides (through household use or professional exposure). Conversely, the incidence of brain cancer was influenced by the father's exposure (occupational activity or use of household or garden pesticides). CONCLUSION: Despite some limitations in this study, the incidence of childhood cancer does appear to be associated with parental exposure during the prenatal period.