Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change is difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three inter-related categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

The metabolic regimes of 356 rivers in the United States.

A national-scale quantification of metabolic energy flow in streams and rivers can improve understanding of the temporal dynamics of in-stream activity, links between energy cycling and ecosystem services, and the effects of human activities on aquatic metabolism. The two dominant terms in aquatic metabolism, gross primary production (GPP) and aerobic respiration (ER), have recently become practical to estimate for many sites due to improved modeling approaches and the availability of requisite model inputs in public datasets. We assembled inputs from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Aeronautics and Space Administration for October 2007 to January 2017. We then ran models to estimate daily GPP, ER, and the gas exchange rate coefficient for 356 streams and rivers across the continental United States. We also gathered potential explanatory variables and spatial information for cross-referencing this dataset with other datasets of watershed characteristics. This dataset offers a first national assessment of many-day time series of metabolic rates for up to 9 years per site, with a total of 490,907 site-days of estimates.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes.

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change.

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Ecology under lake ice.

Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer 'growing seasons'. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under-ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors. Plankton were more abundant under ice than expected; mean winter values were 43.2% of summer values for chlorophyll a, 15.8% of summer phytoplankton biovolume and 25.3% of summer zooplankton density. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically higher during winter, and these differences were exaggerated in smaller lakes. Lake size also influenced winter-summer patterns for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with higher winter DOC in smaller lakes. At coarse levels of taxonomic aggregation, phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition showed few systematic differences between seasons, although literature suggests that seasonal differences are frequently lake-specific, species-specific, or occur at the level of functional group. Within the subset of lakes that had longer time series, winter influenced the subsequent summer for some nutrient variables and zooplankton biomass.

Smartphone-Based Distributed Data Collection Enables Rapid Assessment of Shorebird Habitat Suitability.

Understanding and managing dynamic coastal landscapes for beach-dependent species requires biological and geological data across the range of relevant environments and habitats. It is difficult to acquire such information; data often have limited focus due to resource constraints, are collected by non-specialists, or lack observational uniformity. We developed an open-source smartphone application called iPlover that addresses these difficulties in collecting biogeomorphic information at piping plover (Charadrius melodus) nest sites on coastal beaches. This paper describes iPlover development and evaluates data quality and utility following two years of collection (n = 1799 data points over 1500 km of coast between Maine and North Carolina, USA). We found strong agreement between field user and expert assessments and high model skill when data were used for habitat suitability prediction. Methods used here to develop and deploy a distributed data collection system have broad applicability to interdisciplinary environmental monitoring and modeling.

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985-2009.

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985-2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues.

Evaluation of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for remote wetland monitoring: design and initial results.

Here, we describe and evaluate two low-power wireless sensor networks (WSNs) designed to remotely monitor wetland hydrochemical dynamics over time scales ranging from minutes to decades. Each WSN (one student-built and one commercial) has multiple nodes to monitor water level, precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature, and major solutes at user-defined time intervals. Both WSNs can be configured to report data in near real time via the internet. Based on deployments in two isolated wetlands, we report highly resolved water budgets, transient reversals of flow path, rates of transpiration from peatlands and the dynamics of chromophoric-dissolved organic matter and bulk ionic solutes (specific conductivity)-all on daily or subdaily time scales. Initial results indicate that direct precipitation and evapotranspiration dominate the hydrologic budget of both study wetlands, despite their relatively flat geomorphology and proximity to elevated uplands. Rates of transpiration from peatland sites were typically greater than evaporation from open waters but were more challenging to integrate spatially. Due to the high specific yield of peat, the hydrologic gradient between peatland and open water varied with precipitation events and intervening periods of dry out. The resultant flow path reversals implied that the flux of solutes across the riparian boundary varied over daily time scales. We conclude that WSNs can be deployed in remote wetland-dominated ecosystems at relatively low cost to assess the hydrochemical impacts of weather, climate, and other perturbations.

Lineage-specific responses of microbial communities to environmental change.

A great challenge facing microbial ecology is how to define ecologically relevant taxonomic units. To address this challenge, we investigated how changing the definition of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) influences the perception of ecological patterns in microbial communities as they respond to a dramatic environmental change. We used pyrosequenced tags of the bacterial V2 16S rRNA region, as well as clone libraries constructed from the cytochrome oxidase C gene ccoN, to provide additional taxonomic resolution for the common freshwater genus Polynucleobacter. At the most highly resolved taxonomic scale, we show that distinct genotypes associated with the abundant Polynucleobacter lineages exhibit divergent spatial patterns and dramatic changes over time, while the also abundant Actinobacteria OTUs are highly coherent. This clearly demonstrates that different bacterial lineages demand different taxonomic definitions to capture ecological patterns. Based on the temporal distribution of highly resolved taxa in the hypolimnion, we demonstrate that change in the population structure of a single genotype can provide additional insight into the mechanisms of community-level responses. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of examining ecological change in microbial communities across taxonomic scales while also providing valuable insight into the ecological characteristics of ecologically coherent groups in this system.

Eradication via destratification: whole-lake mixing to selectively remove rainbow smelt, a cold-water invasive species.

Invasive species can have severe effects on aquatic ecosystems. After invasions occur, eradication should be considered whenever the potential loss of ecosystem services outweighs the cost of the eradication method. Here we evaluate the possibility of destratifying Crystal Lake, Wisconsin, USA, to eradicate the invasive fish rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We modeled the effects of three destratification scenarios (non-, low-, and high-mixing) using both physical and biological models. Field observations were used to calibrate the models. Water temperatures estimated from 18 unique DYRESM simulations were used in a bioenergetics model to estimate growth of five age classes of rainbow smelt under normal and destratified conditions. Our simulations indicate that destratification can eliminate optimal rainbow smelt thermal habitat resulting in mortality. Destratified lake temperatures also surpassed several physiological critical temperatures. Bioenergetics simulations predicted a weight loss of 45-55% in yearling and adult rainbow smelt. We found that destratification is potentially effective for eradicating cold-water species in temperate lakes.

Lake microbial communities are resilient after a whole-ecosystem disturbance.

Disturbances act as powerful structuring forces on ecosystems. To ask whether environmental microbial communities have capacity to recover after a large disturbance event, we conducted a whole-ecosystem manipulation, during which we imposed an intense disturbance on freshwater microbial communities by artificially mixing a temperate lake during peak summer thermal stratification. We employed environmental sensors and water chemistry analyses to evaluate the physical and chemical responses of the lake, and bar-coded 16S ribosomal RNA gene pyrosequencing and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA) to assess the bacterial community responses. The artificial mixing increased mean lake temperature from 14 to 20 °C for seven weeks after mixing ended, and exposed the microorganisms to very different environmental conditions, including increased hypolimnion oxygen and increased epilimnion carbon dioxide concentrations. Though overall ecosystem conditions remained altered (with hypolimnion temperatures elevated from 6 to 20 °C), bacterial communities returned to their pre-manipulation state as some environmental conditions, such as oxygen concentration, recovered. Recovery to pre-disturbance community composition and diversity was observed within 7 (epilimnion) and 11 (hypolimnion) days after mixing. Our results suggest that some microbial communities have capacity to recover after a major disturbance.

Resistance, resilience and recovery: aquatic bacterial dynamics after water column disturbance.

For lake microbes, water column mixing acts as a disturbance because it homogenizes thermal and chemical gradients known to define the distributions of microbial taxa. Our first objective was to isolate hypothesized drivers of lake bacterial response to water column mixing. To accomplish this, we designed an enclosure experiment with three treatments to independently test key biogeochemical changes induced by mixing: oxygen addition to the hypolimnion, nutrient addition to the epilimnion, and full water column mixing. We used molecular fingerprinting to observe bacterial community dynamics in the treatment and control enclosures, and in ambient lake water. We found that oxygen and nutrient amendments simulated the physical-chemical water column environment following mixing and resulted in similar bacterial communities to the mixing treatment, affirming that these were important drivers of community change. These results demonstrate that specific environmental changes can replicate broad disturbance effects on microbial communities. Our second objective was to characterize bacterial community stability by quantifying community resistance, recovery and resilience to an episodic disturbance. The communities in the nutrient and oxygen amendments changed quickly (had low resistance), but generally matched the control composition by the 10th day after treatment, exhibiting resilience. These results imply that aquatic bacterial assemblages are generally stable in the face of disturbance.