Valuing water quality benefits from adopting best management practices: A spatial approach.

We developed a GIS-based tool that values, in a spatially explicit way, the ecosystem services generated by water quality improvements resulting from adoption of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The tool is calibrated for watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay drainage and includes the benefits from water quality improvements within targeted watersheds, water quality improvements downstream from targeted watersheds, and reductions in pollutant loadings to Chesapeake Bay. The tool is used to investigate specific BMP scenarios adopted within specific watersheds. The results show that (i) BMP adoption generates large positive net benefits to society, with benefit/cost ratios ranging from 22 to 276; (ii) by selecting cost effective BMPs and placing them in the most appropriate places, the cost of meeting pollutant reduction targets would be reduced by 34-71%; and (iii) net benefits from BMP adoption are higher when they are implemented close to or upstream from population centers.

Characters matter: How narratives shape affective responses to risk communication.

INTRODUCTION: Whereas scientists depend on the language of probability to relay information about hazards, risk communication may be more effective when embedding scientific information in narratives. The persuasive power of narratives is theorized to reside, in part, in narrative transportation. PURPOSE: This study seeks to advance the science of stories in risk communication by measuring real-time affective responses as a proxy indicator for narrative transportation during science messages that present scientific information in the context of narrative. METHODS: This study employed a within-subjects design in which participants (n = 90) were exposed to eight science messages regarding flood risk. Conventional science messages using probability and certainty language represented two conditions. The remaining six conditions were narrative science messages that embedded the two conventional science messages within three story forms that manipulated the narrative mechanism of character selection. Informed by the Narrative Policy Framework, the characters portrayed in the narrative science messages were hero, victim, and victim-to-hero. Natural language processing techniques were applied to identify and rank hero and victim vocabularies from 45 resident interviews conducted in the study area; the resulting classified vocabulary was used to build each of the three story types. Affective response data were collected over 12 group sessions across three flood-prone communities in Montana. Dial response technology was used to capture continuous, second-by-second recording of participants' affective responses while listening to each of the eight science messages. Message order was randomized across sessions. ANOVA and three linear mixed-effects models were estimated to test our predictions. RESULTS: First, both probabilistic and certainty science language evoked negative affective responses with no statistical differences between them. Second, narrative science messages were associated with greater variance in affective responses than conventional science messages. Third, when characters are in action, variation in the narrative mechanism of character selection leads to significantly different affective responses. Hero and victim-to-hero characters elicit positive affective responses, while victim characters produce a slightly negative response. CONCLUSIONS: In risk communication, characters matter in audience experience of narrative transportation as measured by affective responses.

The potential impact of aquatic nuisance species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi and Ohio River Basins.

Concern over the potential transfer of aquatic nuisance species (ANS) between the Great Lakes basin and the Upper Mississippi River basin has motivated calls to re-establish hydrologic separation between the two basins. Accomplishing that goal would require significant expenditures to re-engineer waterways in the Chicago, IL area. These costs should be compared to the potential costs resulting from ANS transfer between the basin, a significant portion of which would be costs to recreational fisheries. In this study, a recreational behavior model is developed for sport anglers in an eight-state region. It models how angler behavior would change in response to potential changes in fishing quality resulting from ANS transfer. The model also calculates the potential loss in net economic value that anglers enjoy from the fishery. The model is estimated based on data on trips taken by anglers (travel cost data) and on angler statements about how they would respond to changes in fishing quality (contingent behavior data). The model shows that the benefit to recreational anglers from re-establishing hydrologic separation exceeds the costs only if the anticipated impacts of ANS transfer on sport fish catch rates are large and widespread.

Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

The impacts of knowledge of the past on preferences for future landscape change.

In this paper, we investigate whether people's knowledge of the past influences their preferences and values towards future landscape change. "Knowledge of the past" is one aspect of the information set held by individuals, and a well-established finding in economics is that changes in information can change preferences and values. The particular aspects of knowledge of the past we work with here are: (i) awareness of past landuse, as represented by woodland cover and (ii) awareness of differing and sometimes contradictory literary impressions of this past landscape. The case studies used here relate to prospective changes in woodland cover in two UK national parks, the Lake District and the Trossachs. We find that people who are made aware that the landscape has changed over time, or that perceptions of the landscape have changed over time, are more likely to favour changes to the current landscape (are less likely to favour the status quo). Knowledge of the past therefore seems to have an impact on preferences for future landscapes. We also investigate the impacts on preferences of how "special", how "wild" and how "worked in" people perceive the landscapes of these two national parks to be.