Challenges Associated with Estimating Utility in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Novel Regression Analysis to Capture the Bilateral Nature of the Disease.

INTRODUCTION: The estimation of utility values for the economic evaluation of therapies for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a particular challenge. Previous economic models in wet AMD have been criticized for failing to capture the bilateral nature of wet AMD by modelling visual acuity (VA) and utility values associated with the better-seeing eye only. METHODS: Here we present a de novo regression analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) applied to a previous dataset of time trade-off (TTO)-derived utility values from a sample of the UK population that wore contact lenses to simulate visual deterioration in wet AMD. This analysis allows utility values to be estimated as a function of VA in both the better-seeing eye (BSE) and worse-seeing eye (WSE). RESULTS: VAs in both the BSE and WSE were found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05) when regressed separately. When included without an interaction term, only the coefficient for VA in the BSE was significant (p = 0.04), but when an interaction term between VA in the BSE and WSE was included, only the constant term (mean TTO utility value) was significant, potentially a result of the collinearity between the VA of the two eyes. The lack of both formal model fit statistics from the GEE approach and theoretical knowledge to support the superiority of one model over another make it difficult to select the best model. CONCLUSION: Limitations of this analysis arise from the potential influence of collinearity between the VA of both eyes, and the use of contact lenses to reflect VA states to obtain the original dataset. Whilst further research is required to elicit more accurate utility values for wet AMD, this novel regression analysis provides a possible source of utility values to allow future economic models to capture the quality of life impact of changes in VA in both eyes. FUNDING: Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited.

The impact of CT colonography for colorectal cancer screening on the UK NHS: costs, healthcare resources and health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Biennial faecal occult blood testing (FOBT) for individuals aged 60-69 years is the primary screening tool for colorectal cancer (CRC) in the UK NHS, despite a large number of patients undergoing an unnecessary optical colonoscopy (OC) and evidence from modelling studies to suggest that more cost-effective technologies exist. CT colonography (CTC) is an emerging CRC screening technology with the potential to prevent CRC by detecting pre-cancerous polyps and to detect cancer at an earlier stage. OBJECTIVE: to assess the impact of introducing CTC into the UK NHS screening programme for CRC on key health outcomes as well as the NHS budget and healthcare resource capacity. METHODS: a discrete Markov model was used to reflect the natural history of CRC and the impact of three screening scenarios (biennial FOBT with and without CTC triage of patients referred to OC, and CTC every 5 years) on a range of health outcomes, including the incidence and prevalence of CRC, in a hypothetical cohort of individuals. The yearly costs, health outcomes and healthcare resource capacity requirements were estimated over a 10-year period (2009-18). RESULTS: using CTC to follow up FOBT-positive patients (scenario 2) was less costly than directing all FOBT-positive patients to OC (scenario 1); saving £776 283 over 10 years for 100 000 individuals invited for screening (year 2007 values), primarily by avoiding approximately 1700 OCs, but was estimated to require 2200 additional CT scans. Implementing a programme of 5-yearly CTC as a primary screen is expected to be more expensive than FOBT screening over the short term (driven by high screening and diagnosis costs), despite substantial savings in treatment costs for CRC over the 10-year time horizon of the model and improved health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: adding CTC into the existing NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme as part of a preventive screening strategy could be less costly to the NHS over the longer term when used to triage FOBT-positive patients to appropriate follow-up. Increased demand for radiology services may be compensated for by reduced demand in endoscopy units.