Defining Potentially Preventable Adverse Outcomes in Medicare Elective Lung Resections.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of the study were to develop risk-adjusted models and apply them for comparisons of hospital performance to define potentially preventable adverse outcomes (OAs) in Medicare lung resection surgery. METHODS: The Medicare Limited Data Set for 2010-2012 was used to design predictive risk models for the four OAs of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without hospital readmission, and 90-day readmissions after removal of unrelated readmission events. The probability of adverse events for each hospital was used to compute the hospital-specific standard deviation (SD) tailored to patient risk profiles. Observed versus predicted adverse events divided by the hospital-specific SD identified the z score for each hospital. Risk-adjusted OA rates were then computed for comparing hospital performance. RESULTS: A total of 39,405 lung resection patients from 739 hospitals had 768 inpatient deaths (1.9%), 3147 had prolonged LOS (8.0%), 514 had 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission (1.3 %), and 7701 had one or more 90-day readmissions (19.5%); 10,924 patients (27.7%) had one or more of these OAs. Twenty-six hospitals were two SDs better than predicted and 34 hospitals were two SDs poorer than predicted. When evaluated by deciles of risk-adjusted OAs, the top performing decile of hospitals had rates of 14.3% and the poorest performing decile had OA rates of 41.0%. CONCLUSIONS: The differences in risk-adjusted comparative outcomes between top- and suboptimal-performing hospitals in lung resections define the potential opportunities for care improvement. Identification of risk factors associated with OAs and causes for readmissions provides direction for specific areas of care redesign for improvement.

Inpatient and Postdischarge Outcomes Following Elective Craniotomy for Mass Lesions.

BACKGROUND: Interpretation of hospital quality requires objective evaluation of both inpatient and postdischarge adverse outcomes (AOs). OBJECTIVE: To develop risk-adjusted predictive models for inpatient and 90-d postdischarge AOs in elective craniotomy and apply those models to individual hospital performance to provide benchmarks to improve care. METHODS: The Medicare Limited Dataset (2012-2014) was used to define all elective craniotomy procedures for mass lesions in patients ≥65 yr. Predictive logistic models were designed for inpatient mortality, inpatient prolonged length of stay, 90-d postdischarge deaths without readmission, and 90-d readmissions after exclusions. The total observed patients with one or more AOs were then compared to predicted AO values, and z-scores were computed for each hospital that met minimum volume requirements. Risk-adjusted AO rates allowed stratification of eligible hospitals into deciles of performance. RESULTS: The hospital evaluation was performed for 223 facilities with 7624 patients that met criteria. A total of 849 patients (11.1%) died inclusive of 90 d postdischarge; 635 (8.3%) were 3σ length-of-stay outliers; and 1928 patients (25.3%) with one or more 90-d readmissions; 2716 patients experienced one or more AOs (35.6%). Six hospitals were 2 z-scores better than average, and 8 were 2 z-scores poorer. The median risk-adjusted AO rate was 18% for the first decile and 53.4% for the 10th decile. CONCLUSION: There was a 35% difference between best and suboptimal performing hospitals for this operation. Hospitals must know their risk-adjusted AO rates and benchmark their results to inform processes of care redesign.

Risk-adjusted outcomes of inpatient medicare medical admissions.

It is important that actual outcomes of care and not surrogate markers, such as process measures, be used to evaluate the quality of inpatient care. Because of the heterogenous composition of patients, risk-adjustment is essential for the objective evaluation of outcomes following inpatient care. Comparative evaluation of risk-adjusted outcomes can be used to identify suboptimal performance and can provide direction for care improvement initiatives.We studied the risk-adjusted outcomes of 6 medical conditions during the inpatient and 90-day post-discharge period to identify the opportunities for care improvement. The Medicare Limited Dataset for 2012 to 2014 was used to identify acute myocardial infarction (AMI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), congestive heart failure (CHF), pneumonia (PNEU), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and gastrointestinal hemorrhage (GIH). Stepwise logistic predictive models were developed for the adverse outcomes (AOs) of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day post-discharge deaths, and 90-day readmissions after unrelated events were excluded. Observed and predicted AOs were determined for each hospital with ≥75 cases for each of the 6 medical conditions. Z-scores and risk-adjusted AO rates for each hospital permitted comparative analysis of outcomes after adjusting for covariance among the medical conditions.There were a total of 1,811,749 patients from 973 acute care hospitals with the 6 medical conditions. A total of 41% of all patients had ≥1 AO events. One or more readmissions were identified in 29.8% of patients. A total of 64 hospitals (6.4%) were 2 standard deviations better than the mean for risk-adjusted outcomes, and 72 (7.4%) were 2 standard deviations poorer. The best performing decile of hospitals had mean AO rates of 35.1% (odds ratio = 0.766; 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 0.762-0.771) and the poorest performing decile a mean AO rate of 48.5% (odds ratio = 1.357; 95% CI: 1.346-1.369). Volume of qualifying cases ranged from 670 to 9314; no association was identified for increased volume of patients (P < .40).Risk-adjusted AO rates demonstrated nearly a 14% opportunity for care improvement between top and suboptimal performing hospitals. Hospitals must be able to benchmark objective measurement of outcomes to inform quality initiatives.

Medicare risk-adjusted outcomes in elective major vascular surgery.

BACKGROUND: Risk-adjusted outcomes of elective major vascular surgery that is inclusive of inpatient and 90-day post-discharge adverse outcomes together have not been well studied. METHODS: We studied 2012-2014 Medicare inpatients who received open aortic procedures, open peripheral vascular procedures, endovascular aortic procedures, and percutaneous angioplasty procedures of the lower extremity for risk-adjusted adverse outcomes of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day post-discharge deaths without readmission, and 90-day post-discharge associated readmissions after excluding unrelated events. Observed and predicted total adverse outcomes for hospitals meeting minimum risk-volume criteria were assessed and hospital-specific z-scores and risk-adjusted adverse outcomes were calculated to compare performance. RESULTS: The total adverse-outcome rate was 27.8% for open aortic procedures, 31.5% for open peripheral vascular procedures, 19.6% for endovascular aortic procedures, and 36.4% for percutaneous angioplasty procedures. The difference in risk-adjusted adverse-outcome rates between the best- and the poorest-performing deciles were 32.2% for open aortic procedures, 29.5% for open peripheral vascular procedures, 21.5% for endovascular aortic procedures, and 37.1% for percutaneous angioplasty procedures. The 90-day post-discharge deaths and readmissions were the major driver of overall adverse-outcome rates. CONCLUSION: The variability in risk-adjusted outcomes among best- and poorest-performing hospitals is over 20% in all major vascular procedures and indicates that a large opportunity exists for improvement in results.

Comparison of Risk-Adjusted Outcomes in Medicare Open versus Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy.

More than 90 per cent of cholecystectomies are performed laparoscopically and this has resulted in concern that surgeons will not have sufficient experience to perform open procedures when clinical circumstances require it. We reviewed the open cholecystectomies (OCs) of Medicare patients from 2010 to 2012 in hospitals with 20 or more cases, created risk-adjusted models for adverse outcomes which were evaluated for 90-days after discharge, and compared the hospital-level outcomes with laparoscopic cholecystectomy performed in the same hospitals for the same period of time. Results demonstrated that inpatient deaths, inpatient prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission, and 90-day readmissions were statistically the same with an overall adverse outcome rate of 21.6 per cent in OC versus 20.9 per cent in laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Conversion of laparoscopic to open procedures was not associated with increased adverse outcomes. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy provides patients with many advantages, but when clinical circumstances are necessary, OC continues to be performed with the same overall adverse outcome rates, and the conversion process is not associated with poorer results in this high-risk population of patients.

Risk-adjusted regional outcomes in elective medicare colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in utilization of services in healthcare are commonly understood, but risk-adjusted evaluation of outcomes has not been done. METHODS: Risk-adjusted adverse outcomes (AOs) for elective Medicare colorectal resections were studied for 2012-2014. Risk-adjusted metrics were inpatient deaths, prolonged postoperative length-of-stay, 90-day post-discharge deaths, and 90-day relevant post-discharge readmissions. The nine Census Bureau regions of the U.S. were evaluated by using standard deviations of predicted adverse outcomes to evaluate observed versus expected events. RESULTS: Overall AO rate was 24.3% from 86,624 patients in 1497 hospitals. Region 9 (Pacific) had the best outcomes (z-score = -3.06; risk-adjusted AO rate = 22.9%) and Region 1 (New England) the poorest (z-score = +1.86; risk-adjusted AO rate = 25.4%). CONCLUSIONS: A 4.9 SD difference exists among the best and poorest performing regions in risk-adjusted colorectal surgery outcomes. Alternative Payment Models should consider regional benchmarks as a variable for the evaluation of quality and pricing of episodes of care.

Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes in elective carotid artery surgery in patients with Medicare.

BACKGROUND: The risk-adjusted outcomes by hospital of elective carotid endarterectomy that is inclusive of inpatient and 90-day postdischarge adverse outcomes have not been studied. METHODS: We studied Medicare inpatients to identify hospitals with 25 or more qualifying carotid endarterectomy cases between 2012-2014. Risk-adjusted prediction models were designed for adverse outcomes of inpatient deaths, 3-sigma prolonged duration-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission, and 90-day postdischarge associated readmissions. Standard deviations of predicted overall adverse outcomes were computed for each hospital. Hospital-specific z scores and risk-adjusted adverse outcomes were calculated. RESULTS: There were 77,086 carotid endarterectomy patients from 960 hospitals complicated by 191 inpatient deaths (0.25%), 4,436 prolonged duration of stay (5.8%), 457 90-day postdischarge deaths (0.6%), and 7,956 90-day postdischarge associated readmissions (10.3%). In the 90-day postdischarge associated readmission patients, an additional 561 patients died after readmission, for total deaths of 1,209 (1.6%) for the study period, and 11,928 (15.5%) patients had one or more adverse outcomes. There were 29 best-performing hospitals (3.0%) with z scores of -2.0 or less (P < .05) with a median rate of risk-adjusted adverse outcomes of 7.1%. A total of 61 suboptimal performers (6.3%) had z scores of +2.0 or greater (P < .05) with a median rate of risk-adjusted adverse outcome rate of 26.4%. CONCLUSION: Hospital risk-adjusted adverse outcome rates for carotid endarterectomy are highly variable. Comparisons of hospital performance define the opportunity for improvement.

Peri-operative emergency department utilization in inpatient and outpatient Medicare laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative emergency department (ED) visits may reflect the patient's biliary disease, or may signal unstable comorbid conditions that have relevance following inpatient laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ILC) and outpatient laparoscopic cholecystectomy (OLC) in Medicare patients. METHODS: We used the Medicare inpatient and outpatient Limited Datasets to identify elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients from 2011 to 2014. ED visits for 30-days before the surgical event were identified and correlated with the probability of patients returning to the ED in the 30-days following the procedure. RESULTS: A total of 129,377 inpatient and 235,339 outpatient LCs were identified. A total of 20,021 (15.5%) of ILCs and 52,025 (22.1%) of OLCs had 30-day preoperative ED visits. ILCs with any 30-day ED visit preoperatively had an Odds Ratio (OR) that predicted a post-discharge ED visit of 1.85 (95% CI = 1.78-1.92; P < 0.0001). OLCs with any 30-day ED visit preoperatively had an OR for post-discharge ED visit of 1.50 (95% CI = 1.46-1.54; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative ED visits predict postdischarge ED visits for laparoscopic cholecystectomy in Medicare patients.

Inpatient and 90-day post-discharge outcomes in elective Medicare spine fusion surgery.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Elective spine surgery is a commonly performed operative procedure, that requires knowledge of risk-adjusted results to improve outcomes and reduce costs. PURPOSE: To develop risk-adjusted models to predict the adverse outcomes (AOs) of care during the inpatient and 90-day post-discharge period for spine fusion surgery. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: To identify the significant risk factors associated with AOs and to develop risk models that measure performance. PATIENT SAMPLE: Hospitals that met minimum criteria of both 20 elective cervical and 20 elective non-cervical spine fusion operations in the 2012-2014 Medicare limited dataset. OUTCOME MEASURES: The risk-adjusted AOs of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay for the index hospitalization, 90-day post-discharge deaths, and 90-day post-discharge readmissions were dependent variables in predictive risk models. METHODS: Over 500 candidate risk factors were used for logistic regression models to predict the AOs. Models were then used to predicted risk-adjusted AO rates by hospitals. RESULTS: There were 874 hospitals with a minimum of both 20 cervical and 20 non-cervical spine fusion patients. There were 167,395 total cases. A total of 7,981 (15.9%) of cervical fusion patients and 17,481 (14.9%) of non-cervical fusion patients had one or more AOs for an overall AO rate of 15.2%. A total of 54 hospitals (6.2%) had z-scores that were 2.0 better than predicted with a median risk adjusted AO rate of 9.2%, and 75 hospitals (8.6%) were 2.0 z-scores poorer than predicted with a median risk-adjusted AO rate of 23.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Differences among hospitals defines opportunities for care improvement.

Risk-Adjusted Hospital Outcomes in Medicare Total Joint Replacement Surgical Procedures.

BACKGROUND: Comparative measurement of hospital outcomes can define opportunities for care improvement and will assume great importance as alternative payment models for inpatient total joint replacement surgical procedures are introduced. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjusted models for Medicare inpatient and post-discharge adverse outcomes in elective lower-extremity total joint replacement and to apply these models for hospital comparison. METHODS: Hospitals with ≥50 qualifying cases of elective total hip replacement and total knee replacement from the Medicare Limited Data Set database of 2010 to 2012 were studied. Logistic risk models were designed for adverse outcomes of inpatient mortality, prolonged length-of-stay outliers in the index hospitalization, 90-day post-discharge deaths without readmission, and 90-day readmissions after excluding non-related readmissions. For each hospital, models were used to predict total adverse outcomes, the number of standard deviations from the mean (z-scores) for hospital performance, and risk-adjusted adverse outcomes for each hospital. RESULTS: A total of 253,978 patients who underwent total hip replacement and 672,515 patients who underwent total knee replacement were studied. The observed overall adverse outcome rates were 12.0% for total hip replacement and 11.6% for total knee replacement. The z-scores for 1,483 hospitals performing total hip replacements varied from -5.09 better than predicted to +5.62 poorer than predicted; 98 hospitals were ≥2 standard deviations better than predicted and 142 hospitals were ≥2 standard deviations poorer than predicted. The risk-adjusted adverse outcome rate for these hospitals was 6.6% for the best-decile hospitals and 19.8% for the poorest-decile hospitals. The z-scores for the 2,349 hospitals performing total knee replacements varied from -5.85 better than predicted to +11.75 poorer than predicted; 223 hospitals were ≥2 standard deviations better than predicted and 319 hospitals were ≥2 standard deviations poorer than predicted. The risk-adjusted adverse outcome rate for these hospitals was 6.4% for the best-decile hospitals and 19.3% for the poorest-decile hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-adjusted outcomes demonstrate wide variability and illustrate the need for improvement among poorer-performing hospitals for bundled payments of joint replacement surgical procedures. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Adverse outcomes are known to occur in the experience of all clinicians and hospitals. The risk-adjusted benchmarking of hospital performance permits the identification of adverse events that are potentially preventable.

Risk-adjusted outcomes in Medicare inpatient nephrectomy patients.

Without risk-adjusted outcomes of surgical care across both the inpatient and postacute period of time, hospitals and surgeons cannot evaluate the effectiveness of current performance in nephrectomy and other operations, and will not have objective metrics to gauge improvements from care redesign efforts.We compared risk-adjusted hospital outcomes following elective total and partial nephrectomy to demonstrate differences that can be used to improve care. We used the Medicare Limited Dataset for 2010 to 2012 for total and partial nephrectomy for benign and malignant neoplasms to create prediction models for the adverse outcomes (AOs) of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission, and 90-day relevant readmissions. From the 4 prediction models, total predicted adverse outcomes were determined for each hospital in the dataset that met a minimum of 25 evaluable cases for the study period. Standard deviations (SDs) for each hospital were used to identify specific z-scores. Risk-adjusted adverse outcomes rates were computed to permit benchmarking each hospital's performance against the national standard. Differences between best and suboptimal performing hospitals defined the potential margin of preventable adverse outcomes for this operation.A total of 449 hospitals with 23,477 patients were evaluated. Overall AO rate was 20.8%; 17 hospitals had risk-adjusted AO rates that were 2 SDs poorer than predicted and 8 were 2 SDs better. The top performing decile of hospitals had a risk-adjusted AO rate of 10.2% while the lowest performing decile had 32.1%. With a minimum of 25 cases for each study hospital, no statistically valid improvement in outcomes was seen with increased case volume.Inpatient and 90-day postdischarge risk-adjusted adverse outcomes demonstrated marked variability among study hospitals and illustrate the opportunities for care improvement. This analytic design is applicable for comparing provider performance across a wide array of different inpatient episodes.

Benchmarking hospital outcomes for improvement of care in Medicare elective colon surgery.

BACKGROUND: Risk-adjusted outcomes are essential for hospitals to benchmark care improvement. METHODS: We used the Medicare Limited Data Set for 2010 to 2012 to create risk models in elective colon surgery for the adverse outcomes (AOs) of inpatient deaths, prolonged length-of-stay outliers, 90-day post-discharge deaths without readmission, and 90-day relevant readmissions. Risk models permitted the prediction of AOs for each hospital and the design of hospital-specific standard deviations (SDs) to define performance from observed values. Risk-adjusted AO rates were computed for hospital comparisons. RESULTS: In all, 1,903 hospitals with 129,861 patients were studied. Overall AO rate was 27.8%; 84 hospitals had AO performance that was 2 SDs poorer than average and 66 were 2 SDs better. The top performing decile of hospitals had a risk-adjusted AO rate of 15.8%, whereas the lowest performing hospital's rate was 39.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Benchmarking risk-adjusted AOs identifies the opportunity for care improvement in elective colon surgery in Medicare patients.

The appropriate measurement of postdischarge readmissions in Medicare colon surgery.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions after inpatient care are being used as a metric for clinical outcomes for surgeons and hospitals, but without standardization of the appropriate postdischarge period. METHODS: Elective colon surgery (ECS) for Medicare patients was reviewed to define the frequency and causes of readmission at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge. Elective, trauma, and cancer readmissions were excluded. A prediction model at 90 days after discharge was designed to identify risk factors that were associated with readmissions. RESULTS: A total of 107,459 live discharges after ECS had 12,746 readmissions at 30 days, 4,601 1st-time readmissions at 31 to 60 days, and another 4,042 1st-time readmissions from days 61 to 90; 40% of initial and nearly 50% of all readmissions occurred from days 31 to 90. Primary causes for readmission were gastrointestinal, infectious, and cardiopulmonary events. CONCLUSIONS: The 90-day postdischarge time period provides the most accurate measurement interval for relevant readmissions after ECS.