Global spatial distribution of Prosopis juliflora - one of the world's worst 100 invasive alien species under changing climate using multiple machine learning models.

Climate change is one of the factors contributing to the spread of invasive alien species. As a result, it is critical to investigate potential invasion dynamics on a global scale in the face of climate change. We used updated occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and Köppen-Geiger climatic zones to better understand the climatic niche dynamics of Prosopis juliflora L. (Fabaceae). In this study, we first compared several algorithms-MaxEnt, generalized linear model (GLM), artificial neural network (ANN), generalized boosted model (GBM), generalized additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF)-to investigate the relationships between species-environment and climate for mesquite. We identified the global climate niche similarity sites (NSSs) using the coalesce approach. This study focused on the current and future climatic suitability of P. juliflora under two global circulation models (GCMs) and two climatic scenarios, i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, true skill statistic (TSS), kappa coefficient, and correlation were used to evaluate model performance. Among the tested models, the machine learning algorithm random forest (RF) demonstrated the highest accuracy. The vast swaths of currently uninvaded land on multiple continents are ideal habitats for invasion. Approximately 9.65% of the area is highly suitable for the establishment of P. juliflora. Consequently, certain regions in the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania have become particularly vulnerable to invasion. In relation to RCPs, we identified suitable area changes (expansion, loss, and stability). The findings of this study show that NSSs and RCPs increase the risk of invasion in specific parts of the world. Our findings contribute to a cross-border continental conservation effort to combat P. juliflora  expansion into new potential invasion areas.

Tracking forest loss and fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) range in Nepal.

Forest cover is the primary determinant of elephant distribution, thus, understanding forest loss and fragmentation is crucial for elephant conservation. We assessed deforestation and patterns of forest fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Chure Terai Madhesh Lanscape (CTML) which covers the entire elephant range in Nepal. Forest cover maps and fragmentation matrices were generated using multi-source data (Topographic maps and Landsat satellite images of 1930, 1975, 2000, and 2020) and spatiotemporal change was quantified. At present, 19,069 km2 forest cover in CTML is available as the elephant habitat in Nepal. Overall, 21.5% of elephant habitat was lost between 1930 and 2020, with a larger (12.3%) forest cover loss between 1930 and 1975. Area of the large forests (Core 3) has decreased by 43.08% whereas smaller patches (Core 2, Core 1, edge and patch forests) has increased multifold between 1930 and 2020. The continued habitat loss and fragmentation probably fragmented elephant populations during the last century and made them insular with long-term ramifications for elephant conservation and human-elephant conflict. Given the substantial loss in forest cover and high levels of fragmentation, improving the resilience of elephant populations in Nepal would urgently require habitat and corridor restoration to enable the movement of elephants.

Patterns of animal and plant discoveries, distribution and endemism in India-implications on the effectiveness of the protected area network.

The main focus in biodiversity is to conserve species diversity with specific emphasis on endemic species. This study has analysed the distribution of endemic floral and faunal species and their representativeness in protected areas of India. The number of endemic species has been estimated as 29787 (30.35%) and 12696 (26.33%) of Indian fauna and flora respectively. Overall, 2055 animal species and 1983 plant species were discovered from India from 2009 to 2018. The number of new distributional records to India reported during the last decade is 1242 species of plants and 1086 species of animals. The species discovery data indicate that there are more species yet to be described. According to the Cramer coefficients, the elevation was strongly correlated with endemism, followed by precipitation, temperature, land cover, and biogeographic zone. The study of endemic floral and faunal species including new species and protected areas provides the first prototype national gap analysis in assessing the representativeness of coverage of protected areas. The patterns of geographic distribution of endemic species and the gap analysis present a novel finding for conservation priorities. The highest number of new species was discovered from protected areas i.e. Periyar, Mundathurai, Khangchendzonga, Mehao, Thattekadu Bird, Eravikulam, Mukurthi, Saddle Peak, Malabar, and Anamalai. Although the total area protected is significant in India, their geographic coverage is almost the contrary to patterns of endemism. The results provide a valued direction for the advancement of management strategies for biodiversity conservation.

Assessment of historical forest cover loss and fragmentation in Asian elephant ranges in India.

India is home of the largest remaining population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus L.) in the South and Southeast Asia. The forest loss and fragmentation is the main threat to the long-term survival of Asian elephants. In the present study, we assessed forest loss and fragmentation in the major elephant ranging provinces in India, viz., north-eastern, north-western, central, and southern since the 1930s. We quantified forest cover changes by generating and analyzing forest cover maps of 1930, 1975, and 2013, whereas fragmentation of contiguous forest areas was quantified by applying landscape metrics on the temporal forest cover maps. A total of 21.49% of the original forest cover was lost from 1930 to 1975, while another 3.19% forest cover was lost from 1975 to 2013 in the elephant ranges in India. The maximum forest loss occurred in the southern range (13,084 km2) followed by north-eastern (10,188 km2), central (5614 km2), and north-western (4030 km2) elephant ranges in the past eight decades. The forests in the central range were the most fragmented followed by southern, north-eastern, and north-western elephant ranges. The forest fragmentation in the southern range occurred at the fastest rate than central, north-eastern, and north-western ranges. The core forest areas shrunk by 39.6% from 1930 to 2013. The causative factors of forest change and situation of elephant-human conflict have been discussed. Study outcomes would be helpful in planning effective conservation strategies for Asian elephants in India.

Identification and characterization of spatio-temporal hotspots of forest fires in South Asia.

Forest fire is considered as one of the major threats to global biodiversity and a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Rising temperatures, weather conditions, and topography promote the incidences of fire due to human ignition in South Asia. Because of its synoptic, multi-spectral, and multi-temporal nature, remote sensing data can be a state of art technology for forest fire management. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal patterns of forest fires and identifying hotspots using the novel geospatial technique "emerging hotspot analysis tool" in South Asia. Daily MODIS active fire locations data of 15 years (2003-2017) has been aggregated in order to characterize fire frequency, fire density, and hotspots. A total of 522,348 active fire points have been used to analyze risk of fires across the forest types. Maximum number of forest fires in South Asia was occurring during the January to May. Spatial analysis identified areas of frequent burning and high fire density in South Asian countries. In South Asia, 51% of forest grid cells were affected by fires in 15 years. Highest number of fire incidences was recorded in tropical moist deciduous forest and tropical dry deciduous forest. The emerging hotspots analysis indicates prevalence of sporadic hotspots, followed by historical hotspots, consecutive hotspots, and persistent hotspots in South Asia. Of the seven South Asian countries, Bangladesh has highest emerging hotspot area (34.2%) in forests, followed by 32.2% in India and 29.5% in Nepal. Study results offer critical insights in delineation of fire vulnerable forest landscapes which will stand as a valuable input for strengthening management of fires in South Asia.

Habitat monitoring and conservation prioritisation of protected areas in Western Ghats, Kerala, India.

Spatially explicit approach is essential to prioritise the ecosystems for biodiversity conservation. In the present study, the conservation status of 20 protected areas of the Western Ghats of Kerala, India, was analysed based on long-term changes in forests (1975-1985-1995-2005-2013), landscape level changes in fragmentation and forest fires (2005-2015). This study has shown that a significant forest loss occurred in protected areas before declaration. Idukki is one of the major protected areas which showed a drastic reduction (18.83%) in its forest cover. During 1985-1995, Periyar tiger reserve had lost 24.19 km2 core 3 forest area followed by Peppara (18.54 km2), Parambikulam (17.93 km2), Chimmony (17.71 km2), Peechi-Vazhani (12.31 km2) and Neyyar (11.67 km2). An area of 71.33 km2 of the protected area was affected by fires in 2014. Overall protected area-wise decadal analysis indicates Periyar has the highest number of fire incidences followed by Wayanad, Kurinjimala, Silent Valley and Eravikulam. Disturbances in the form of fires and fragmentation still exist and may have significant conservation threat to flora and fauna. Among protected areas, many are having a probability to go under threat or dynamic stage. Chinnar, Thattekkad and Kurinjimala sanctuaries are representing high levels of vulnerability, or they are near to decline stage. Habitat level monitoring of the anthropogenic disturbances can be efficiently useful for the strategic conservation planning. The present study has provided geospatial database on spatial patterns of deforestation, fragmentation and forest fires in protected areas of Kerala. Conservation prioritization approach based on these parameters will be useful for the strategic planning in the state of Kerala.

Development of deforestation and land cover database for Bhutan (1930-2014).

Bhutan is a mountainous country located in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. This study has quantified the total area under land cover types, estimated the rate of forest cover change, analyzed the changes across forest types, and modeled forest cover change hotpots in Bhutan. The topographical maps and satellite remote sensing images were analyzed to get the spatial patterns of forest and associated land cover changes over the past eight decades (1930-1977-1987-1995-2005-2014). Forest is the largest land cover in Bhutan and constitutes 68.3% of the total geographical area in 2014. Subtropical broad leaved hill forest is predominant type occupies 34.1% of forest area in Bhutan, followed by montane dry temperate (20.9%), montane wet temperate (18.9%), Himalayan moist temperate (10%), and tropical moist sal (8.1%) in 2014. The major forest cover loss is observed in subtropical broad leaved hill forest (64.5 km2) and moist sal forest (9.9 km2) from 1977 to 2014. The deforested areas have mainly been converted into agriculture and contributed for 60.9% of forest loss from 1930 to 2014. In spite of major decline of forest cover in time interval of 1930-1977, there is no net rate of deforestation is recorded in Bhutan since 1995. Forest cover change analysis has been carried out to evaluate the conservation effectiveness in "Protected Areas" of Bhutan. Hotspots that have undergone high transformation in forest cover for afforestation and deforestation were highlighted in the study for conservation prioritisation. Forest conservation policies in Bhutan are highly effective in controlling deforestation as compared to neighboring Asian countries and such service would help in mitigating climate change.

Nationwide classification of forest types of India using remote sensing and GIS.

India, a mega-diverse country, possesses a wide range of climate and vegetation types along with a varied topography. The present study has classified forest types of India based on multi-season IRS Resourcesat-2 Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) data. The study has characterized 29 land use/land cover classes including 14 forest types and seven scrub types. Hybrid classification approach has been used for the classification of forest types. The classification of vegetation has been carried out based on the ecological rule bases followed by Champion and Seth's (1968) scheme of forest types in India. The present classification scheme has been compared with the available global and national level land cover products. The natural vegetation cover was estimated to be 29.36% of total geographical area of India. The predominant forest types of India are tropical dry deciduous and tropical moist deciduous. Of the total forest cover, tropical dry deciduous forests occupy an area of 2,17,713 km(2) (34.80%) followed by 2,07,649 km(2) (33.19%) under tropical moist deciduous forests, 48,295 km(2) (7.72%) under tropical semi-evergreen forests and 47,192 km(2) (7.54%) under tropical wet evergreen forests. The study has brought out a comprehensive vegetation cover and forest type maps based on inputs critical in defining the various categories of vegetation and forest types. This spatially explicit database will be highly useful for the studies related to changes in various forest types, carbon stocks, climate-vegetation modeling and biogeochemical cycles.

Geospatial assessment and monitoring of historical forest cover changes (1920-2012) in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats, India.

Deforestation in the biosphere reserves, which are key Protected Areas has negative impacts on biodiversity, climate, carbon fluxes and livelihoods. Comprehensive study of deforestation in biosphere reserves is required to assess the impact of the management effectiveness. This article assesses the changes in forest cover in various zones and protected areas of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, the first declared biosphere reserve in India which forms part of Western Ghats-a global biodiversity hotspot. In this study, we have mapped the forests from earliest available topographical maps and multi-temporal satellite data spanning from 1920's to 2012 period. Mapping of spatial extent of forest cover, vegetation types and land cover was carried out using visual interpretation technique. A grid cell of 1 km × 1 km was generated for time series change analysis to understand the patterns in spatial distribution of forest cover (1920-1973-1989-1999-2006-2012). The total forest area of biosphere reserve was found to be 5,806.5 km(2) (93.8 % of total geographical area) in 1920. Overall loss of forest cover was estimated as 1,423.6 km(2) (24.5 % of the total forest) with reference to 1920. Among the six Protected Areas, annual deforestation rate of >0.5 was found in Wayanad wildlife sanctuary during 1920-1973. The deforestation in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve is mainly attributed to conversion of forests to plantations and agriculture along with submergence due to construction of dams during 1920 to 1989. Grid wise analysis indicates that 851 grids have undergone large-scale negative changes of >75 ha of forest loss during 1920-1973 while, only 15 grids have shown >75 ha loss during 1973-1989. Annual net rate of deforestation for the period of 1920 to 1973 was calculated as 0.5 followed by 0.1 for 1973 to 1989. Our analysis shows that there was large-scale deforestation before the declaration of area as biosphere reserve in 1986; however, the deforestation has drastically reduced after the declaration due to high degree of protection, thus indicating the secure future of reserve in the long term under the current forest management practices. The present work will stand as the most up-to-date assessment on the forest cover of the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve with immediate applications in monitoring and management of forest biodiversity.

Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve, India using remote sensing and GIS.

Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004-2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km(2). There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km(2) (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km(2) is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km(2)) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.

Assessment and monitoring of long-term forest cover changes in Odisha, India using remote sensing and GIS.

Deforestation and fragmentation are important concerns in managing and conserving tropical forests and have global significance. In the Indian context, in the last one century, the forests have undergone significant changes due to several policies undertaken by government as well as increased population pressure. The present study has brought out spatiotemporal changes in forest cover and variation in forest type in the state of Odisha (Orissa), India, during the last 75 years period. The mapping for the period of 1924-1935, 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2010 indicates that the forest cover accounts for 81,785.6 km(2) (52.5 %), 56,661.1 km(2) (36.4 %), 51,642.3 km(2) (33.2 %), 49,773 km(2) (32 %) and 48,669.4 km(2) (31.3 %) of the study area, respectively. The study found the net forest cover decline as 40.5 % of the total forest and mean annual rate of deforestation as 0.69 % year(-1) during 1935 to 2010. There is a decline in annual rate of deforestation during 1995 to 2010 which was estimated as 0.15 %. Forest type-wise quantitative loss of forest cover reveals large scale deforestation of dry deciduous forests. The landscape analysis shows that the number of forest patches (per 1,000) are 2.463 in 1935, 10.390 in 1975, 11.899 in 1985, 12.193 in 1995 and 15.102 in 2010, which indicates high anthropogenic pressure on the forests. The mean patch size (km(2)) of forest decreased from 33.2 in 1935 to 5.5 in 1975 and reached to 3.2 by 2010. The study demonstrated that monitoring of long term forest changes, quantitative loss of forest types and landscape metrics provides critical inputs for management of forest resources.

Folklore medicinal plants of North Andaman Islands, India.

The rural folk of North Andaman, India use the traditional medicine for their primary health care. Folklore medicinal uses of 72 interesting medicinal plant species along with botanical name, local name, family, habit, part used, disease for which the drug is administrated, mode of administration are presented. These 72 plant species which provide the crude drugs pertain to 67 genera and 43 families of Magnoliophyta from tropical rainforests. These plants used to cure 40 ailments. Most remedies were taken orally, accounting for 76% of medicinal use. Most of the remedies were reported to have been from trees (55.6%) and herb (22.2%) species. The most widely sought after plant parts in the preparation of remedies in the areas are the stem bark (33.8%) and root (23.9%).

An ethnobotanical survey of medicinal plants used by the Didayi tribe of Malkangiri district of Orissa, India.

An ethnobotanical survey was carried out among the ethnic community (Didayi) in Malkangiri district, Orissa. A total of 53 medicinal plant species belonging to 34 families and 52 different species are described under this study.