Changes in quality of care for five diseases measured by implicit review, 1981 to 1986.

We measured quality of care before and after implementation of the prospective payment system. We developed a structured implicit review form and applied it to a sample of 1366 Medicare patients with congestive heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, cerebrovascular accident, or hip fracture who were hospitalized in 1981-1982 or 1985-1986. Very poor quality of care was associated with increased death rates 30 days after admission (17% with very good care died vs 30% with very poor care). The quality of medical care improved between 1981-1982 and 1985-1986 (from 25% receiving poor or very poor care to 12%), although more patients were judged to have been discharged too soon and in unstable condition (7% vs 4%). Except for discharge planning processes, the quality of hospital care has continued to improve for Medicare patients despite, or because of, the introduction of the prospective payment system with its accompanying professional review organization review.

Prospective payment system and impairment at discharge. The 'quicker-and-sicker' story revisited.

Since the introduction of the prospective payment system (PPS), anecdotal evidence has accumulated that patients are leaving the hospital "quicker and sicker." We developed valid measures of discharge impairment and measured these levels in a nationally representative sample of patients with one of five conditions prior to and following the PPS implementation. Instability at discharge (important clinical problems usually first occurring prior to discharge) predicted the likelihood of postdischarge deaths. At 90 days postdischarge, 16% of patients discharged unstable were dead vs 10% of patients discharged stable. After the PPS introduction, instability increased primarily among patients discharged home. Prior to the PPS, 10% of patients discharged home were unstable; after the PPS was implemented, 15% were discharged unstable, a 43% relative change. Efforts to monitor the effect of this increase in discharge instability on health should be implemented.

Studying the effects of the DRG-based prospective payment system on quality of care. Design, sampling, and fieldwork.

We have conducted a nationally representative before-after study of the effects of the diagnosis related groups-based prospective payment system (PPS) on quality of in-hospital care for aged Medicare patients. We used a pre-post design with multiple time points in both the pre-PPS (calendar years 1981 and 1982) and post-PPS (July 1985 through June 1986) periods. We gathered clinically detailed data from medical records of patients with one of six diseases and supplemented these data with postdischarge information from Health Care Financing Administration files. We used a stratified multistage cluster sampling design with data gathered on 16,758 patients chosen from 297 hospitals in 30 areas in five states. Our hospital participation rate was 97%; we successfully accessed 96% of the medical records we requested; and our mean item-level reliability score was 0.80. Our sample matches the nation closely on hospital urbanicity, size, teaching status, ownership, and percentages of Medicare and Medicaid patients, and patient demographics and mortality.

Changes in sickness at admission following the introduction of the prospective payment system.

We developed disease-specific measures of sickness at admission based on medical record data to study mortality of Medicare patients with one of five conditions (congestive heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, pneumonia, and hip fracture). We collected an average of 73 sickness variables per disease, but our final sickness-at-admission scales use, on average, 19 variables. These scales are publicly available, and explain 25% of the variance in 30-day postadmission mortality for patients with acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, or cerebrovascular accident. Sickness at admission increased following the introduction of the prospective payment system (PPS). For our five diseases combined, the 30-day mortality to be expected because of sickness at admission was 1.0% higher in the 1985-1986 period than in the 1981-1982 period (16.4% vs 15.4%), and the expected 180-day mortality was 1.6% higher (30.1% vs 28.5%). Studies of the effects of PPS on mortality must take this increase in sickness at admission into account.

Measuring quality of care with explicit process criteria before and after implementation of the DRG-based prospective payment system.

We developed explicit process criteria and scales for Medicare patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pneumonia, cerebrovascular accident, and hip fracture. We applied the process scales to a nationally representative sample of 14,012 patients hospitalized before and after the implementation of the diagnosis related group-based prospective payment system. For the four medical diseases, a better process of care resulted in lower mortality rates 30 days after admission. Patients in the upper quartile of process scores had a 30-day mortality rate 5% lower than that of patients in the lower quartile. The process of care improved after the introduction of the prospective payment system; eg, better nursing care after the introduction of the prospective payment system was associated with an expected decrease in 30-day mortality rates in pneumonia patients of 0.8 percentage points, and better physician cognitive performance was associated with an expected decrease in 30-day mortality rates of 0.4 percentage points. Overall, process improvements across all four medical conditions were associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in 30-day mortality rates after the introduction of the prospective payment system.

Comparing outcomes of care before and after implementation of the DRG-based prospective payment system.

We compared patient outcomes before and after the introduction of the diagnosis related groups (DRG)-based prospective payment system (PPS) in a nationally representative sample of 14,012 Medicare patients hospitalized in 1981 through 1982 and 1985 through 1986 with one of five diseases. For the five diseases combined; length of stay dropped 24% and in-hospital mortality declined from 16.1% to 12.6% after the PPS was introduced (P less than .05). Thirty-day mortality adjusted for sickness at admission was 1.1% lower than before (16.5% pre-PPS, 15.4% post-PPS; P less than .05), and 180-day adjusted mortality was essentially unchanged at 29.6% pre-vs 29.0% post-PPS (P less than .05). For patients admitted to the hospital from home, 4% more patients were not discharged home post-PPS than pre-PPS (P less than .05), and an additional 1% of patients had prolonged nursing home stays (P less than .05). The introduction of the PPS was not associated with a worsening of outcome for hospitalized Medicare patients. However, because our post-PPS data are from 1985 and 1986, we recommend that clinical monitoring be maintained to ensure that changes in prospective payment do not negatively affect patient outcome.