Estimating alcohol-related premature mortality in San Francisco: use of population-attributable fractions from the global burden of disease study.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, national and global mortality data have been characterized in terms of well-established risk factors. In this regard, alcohol consumption has been called the third leading "actual cause of death" (modifiable behavioral risk factor) in the United States, after tobacco use and the combination of poor diet and physical inactivity. Globally and in various regions of the world, alcohol use has been established as a leading contributor to the overall burden of disease and as a major determinant of health disparities, but, to our knowledge, no one has characterized alcohol-related harm in such broad terms at the local level. We asked how alcohol-related premature mortality in San Francisco, measured in years of life lost (YLLs), compares with other well-known causes of premature mortality, such as ischemic heart disease or HIV/AIDS. METHODS: We applied sex- and cause-specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of years of life lost (YLLs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study to 17 comparable outcomes among San Francisco males and females during 2004-2007. We did this in three ways: Method 1 assumed that all San Franciscans drink like populations in developed economies. These estimates were limited to alcohol-related harm. Method 2 modified these estimates by including several beneficial effects. Method 3 assumed that Latino and Asian San Franciscans drink alcohol like populations in the global regions related to their ethnicity. RESULTS: By any of these three methods, alcohol-related premature mortality accounts for roughly a tenth of all YLLs among males. Alcohol-related YLLs among males are comparable to YLLs for leading causes such as ischemic heart disease and HIV/AIDS, in some instances exceeding them. Latino and black males bear a disproportionate burden of harm. Among females, for whom estimates differed more by method and were smaller than those for males, alcohol-related YLLs are comparable to leading causes which rank somewhere between fifth and fourteenth. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption is a major contributor to premature mortality in San Francisco, especially among males. Interventions to avert alcohol-related harm in San Francisco should be taken at the population level and deserve the same attention that is given to other major risk factors, such as smoking or obesity.

Calculating expected years of life lost for assessing local ethnic disparities in causes of premature death.

BACKGROUND: A core function of local health departments is to conduct health assessments. The analysis of death certificates provides information on diseases, conditions, and injuries that are likely to cause death - an important outcome indicator of population health. The expected years of life lost (YLL) measure is a valid, stand-alone measure for identifying and ranking the underlying causes of premature death. The purpose of this study was to rank the leading causes of premature death among San Francisco residents, and to share detailed methods so that these analyses can be used in other local health jurisdictions. METHODS: Using death registry data and population estimates for San Francisco deaths in 2003-2004, we calculated the number of deaths, YLL, and age-standardized YLL rates (ASYRs). The results were stratified by sex, ethnicity, and underlying cause of death. The YLL values were used to rank the leading causes of premature death for men and women, and by ethnicity. RESULTS: In the years 2003-2004, 6312 men died (73,627 years of life lost), and 5726 women died (51,194 years of life lost). The ASYR for men was 65% higher compared to the ASYR for women (8971.1 vs. 5438.6 per 100,000 persons per year). The leading causes of premature deaths are those with the largest average YLLs and are largely preventable. Among men, these were HIV/AIDS, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, and alcohol use disorder; and among women, these were lung cancer, breast cancer, hypertensive heart disease, colon cancer, and diabetes mellitus. A large health disparity exists between African Americans and other ethnic groups: African American age-adjusted overall and cause-specific YLL rates were higher, especially for homicide among men. Except for homicide among Latino men, Latinos and Asians have comparable or lower YLL rates among the leading causes of death compared to whites. CONCLUSION: Local death registry data can be used to measure, rank, and monitor the leading causes of premature death, and to measure and monitor ethnic health disparities.

Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model.

BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1-5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance.