Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of all death globally. Timely and accurate identification of people at risk of developing an atherosclerotic CVD and its sequelae is a central pillar of preventive cardiology. One widely used approach is risk prediction models; however, currently available models consider only a limited set of risk factors and outcomes, yield no actionable advice to individuals based on their holistic medical state and lifestyle, are often not interpretable, were built with small cohort sizes or are based on lifestyle data from the 1960s, e.g. the Framingham model. The risk of developing atherosclerotic CVDs is heavily lifestyle dependent, potentially making many occurrences preventable. Providing actionable and accurate risk prediction tools to the public could assist in atherosclerotic CVD prevention. Accordingly, we developed a benchmarking pipeline to find the best set of data preprocessing and algorithms to predict absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk. Based on the data of 464,547 UK Biobank participants without atherosclerotic CVD at baseline, we used a comprehensive set of 203 consolidated risk factors associated with atherosclerosis and its sequelae (e.g. heart failure). Our two best performing absolute atherosclerotic risk prediction models provided higher performance, (AUROC: 0.7573, 95% CI: 0.755-0.7595) and (AUROC: 0.7544, 95% CI: 0.7522-0.7567), than Framingham (AUROC: 0.680, 95% CI: 0.6775-0.6824) and QRisk3 (AUROC: 0.725, 95% CI: 0.7226-0.7273). Using a subset of 25 risk factors identified with feature selection, our reduced model achieves similar performance (AUROC 0.7415, 95% CI: 0.7392-0.7438) while being less complex. Further, it is interpretable, actionable and highly generalizable. The model could be incorporated into clinical practice and might allow continuous personalized predictions with automated intervention suggestions.

A comparison of 'pruning' during multi-step planning in depressed and healthy individuals.

BACKGROUND: Real-life decisions are often complex because they involve making sequential choices that constrain future options. We have previously shown that to render such multi-step decisions manageable, people 'prune' (i.e. selectively disregard) branches of decision trees that contain negative outcomes. We have theorized that sub-optimal pruning contributes to depression by promoting an oversampling of branches that result in unsavoury outcomes, which results in a negatively-biased valuation of the world. However, no study has tested this theory in depressed individuals. METHODS: Thirty unmedicated depressed and 31 healthy participants were administered a sequential reinforcement-based decision-making task to determine pruning behaviours, and completed measures of depression and anxiety. Computational, Bayesian and frequentist analyses examined group differences in task performance and relationships between pruning and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Consistent with prior findings, participants robustly pruned branches of decision trees that began with large losses, regardless of the potential utility of those branches. However, there was no group difference in pruning behaviours. Further, there was no relationship between pruning and levels of depression/anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that sub-optimal pruning is evident in depression. Future research could determine whether maladaptive pruning behaviours are observable in specific sub-groups of depressed patients (e.g. in treatment-resistant individuals), or whether misuse of other heuristics may contribute to depression.

A Formal Valuation Framework for Emotions and Their Control.

Computational psychiatry aims to apply mathematical and computational techniques to help improve psychiatric care. To achieve this, the phenomena under scrutiny should be within the scope of formal methods. As emotions play an important role across many psychiatric disorders, such computational methods must encompass emotions. Here, we consider formal valuation accounts of emotions. We focus on the fact that the flexibility of emotional responses and the nature of appraisals suggest the need for a model-based valuation framework for emotions. However, resource limitations make plain model-based valuation impossible and require metareasoning strategies to apportion cognitive resources adaptively. We argue that emotions may implement such metareasoning approximations by restricting the range of behaviors and states considered. We consider the processes that guide the deployment of the approximations, discerning between innate, model-free, heuristic, and model-based controllers. A formal valuation and metareasoning framework may thus provide a principled approach to examining emotions.

German Translation and Validation of the Cognitive Style Questionnaire Short Form (CSQ-SF-D).

BACKGROUND: The Cognitive Style Questionnaire is a valuable tool for the assessment of hopeless cognitive styles in depression research, with predictive power in longitudinal studies. However, it is very burdensome to administer. Even the short form is still long, and neither this nor the original version exist in validated German translations. METHODS: The questionnaire was translated from English to German, back-translated and commented on by clinicians. The reliability, factor structure and external validity of an online form of the questionnaire were examined on 214 participants. External validity was measured on a subset of 90 subjects. RESULTS: The resulting CSQ-SF-D had good to excellent reliability, both across items and subscales, and similar external validity to the original English version. The internality subscale appeared less robust than other subscales. A detailed analysis of individual item performance suggests that stable results could be achieved with a very short form (CSQ-VSF-D) including only 27 of the 72 items. CONCLUSIONS: The CSQ-SF-D is a validated and freely distributed translation of the CSQ-SF into German. This should make efficient assessment of cognitive style in German samples more accessible to researchers.