Identifying care-home residents in routine healthcare datasets: a diagnostic test accuracy study of five methods.

Background: there is no established method to identify care-home residents in routine healthcare datasets. Methods matching patient's addresses to known care-home addresses have been proposed in the UK, but few have been formally evaluated. Study design: prospective diagnostic test accuracy study. Methods: four independent samples of 5,000 addresses from Community Health Index (CHI) population registers were sampled for two NHS Scotland Health Boards on 1 April 2017, with one sample of adults aged ≥65 years and one of all residents. To derive the reference standard, all 20,000 addresses were manually adjudicated as 'care-home address' or not. The performance of five methods (NHS Scotland assigned CHI Institution Flag, exact address matching, postcode matching, Phonics and Markov) was evaluated compared to the reference standard. Results: the CHI Institution Flag had a high PPV 97-99% in all four test sets, but poorer sensitivity 55-89%. Exact address matching failed in every case. Postcode matching had higher sensitivity than the CHI flag 78-90%, but worse PPV 77-85%. Area under the receiver operating curve values for Phonics and Markov scores were 0.86-0.95 and 0.93-0.98, respectively. Phonics score with cut-off ≥13 had PPV 92-97% with sensitivity 72-87%. Markov PPVs were 90-95% with sensitivity 69-90% with cut-off ≥29.6. Conclusions: more complex address matching methods greatly improve identification compared to the existing NHS Scotland flag or postcode matching, although no method achieved both sensitivity and positive predictive value > 95%. Choice of method and cut-offs will be determined by the specific needs of researchers and practitioners.

Living at home after emergency hospital admission: prospective cohort study in older adults with and without cognitive spectrum disorder.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive spectrum disorders (CSDs) are common in hospitalised older adults and associated with adverse outcomes. Their association with the maintenance of independent living has not been established. The aim was to establish the role of CSDs on the likelihood of living at home 30 days after discharge or being newly admitted to a care home. METHODS: A prospective cohort study with routine data linkage was conducted based on admissions data from the acute medical unit of a district general hospital in Scotland. 5570 people aged ≥ 65 years admitted from a private residence who survived to discharge and received the Older Persons Routine Acute Assessment (OPRAA) during an incident emergency medical admission were included. The outcome measures were living at home, defined as a private residential address, 30 days after discharge and new care home admission at hospital discharge. Outcomes were ascertained through linkage to routine data sources. RESULTS: Of the 5570 individuals admitted from a private residence who survived to discharge, those without a CSD were more likely to be living at home at 30 days than those with a CSD (93.4% versus 81.7%; difference 11.7%, 95%CI 9.7-13.8%). New discharge to a care home affected 236 (4.2%) of the cohort, 181 (76.7%) of whom had a CSD. Logistic regression modelling identified that all four CSD categories were associated with a reduced likelihood of living at home and an increased likelihood of discharge to a care home. Those with delirium superimposed on dementia were the least likely to be living at home (OR 0.25), followed by those with dementia (OR 0.43), then unspecified cognitive impairment (OR 0.55) and finally delirium (OR 0.57). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with a CSD are at significantly increased risk of not returning home after hospitalisation, and those with CSDs account for the majority of new admissions to care homes on discharge. Individuals with delirium superimposed on dementia are the most affected. We need to understand how to configure and deliver healthcare services to enable older people to remain as independent as possible for as long as possible and to ensure transitions of care are managed supportively.

Epidemiology and outcomes of people with dementia, delirium, and unspecified cognitive impairment in the general hospital: prospective cohort study of 10,014 admissions.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment of various kinds is common in older people admitted to hospital, but previous research has usually focused on single conditions in highly-selected groups and has rarely examined associations with outcomes. This study examined prevalence and outcomes of cognitive impairment in a large unselected cohort of people aged 65+ with an emergency medical admission. METHODS: Between January 1, 2012, and June 30, 2013, admissions to a single general hospital acute medical unit aged 65+ underwent a structured specialist nurse assessment (n = 10,014). We defined 'cognitive spectrum disorder' (CSD) as any combination of delirium, known dementia, or Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT) score < 8/10. Routine data for length of stay (LOS), mortality, and readmission were linked to examine associations with outcomes. RESULTS: A CSD was present in 38.5% of all patients admitted aged over 65, and in more than half of those aged over 85. Overall, 16.7% of older people admitted had delirium alone, 7.9% delirium superimposed on known dementia, 9.4% known dementia alone, and 4.5% unspecified cognitive impairment (AMT score < 8/10, no delirium, no known dementia). Of those with known dementia, 45.8% had delirium superimposed. Outcomes were worse in those with CSD compared to those without - LOS 25.0 vs. 11.8 days, 30-day mortality 13.6% vs. 9.0%, 1-year mortality 40.0% vs. 26.0%, 1-year death or readmission 62.4% vs. 51.5% (all P < 0.01). There was relatively little difference by CSD type, although people with delirium superimposed on dementia had the longest LOS, and people with dementia the worst mortality at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: CSD is common in older inpatients and associated with considerably worse outcomes, with little variation between different types of CSD. Healthcare systems should systematically identify and develop care pathways for older people with CSD admitted as medical emergencies, and avoid only focusing on condition-specific pathways such as those for dementia or delirium alone.

Predicting discharge to institutional long-term care following acute hospitalisation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: moving into long-term institutional care is a significant life event for any individual. Predictors of institutional care admission from community-dwellers and people with dementia have been described, but those from the acute hospital setting have not been systematically reviewed. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care following acute hospitalisation. Methods: we registered and conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497). We searched MEDLINE; EMBASE and CINAHL Plus in September 2015. We included observational studies of patients admitted directly to long-term institutional care following acute hospitalisation where factors associated with institutionalisation were reported. Results: from 9,176 records, we included 23 studies (n = 354,985 participants). Studies were heterogeneous, with the proportions discharged to a care home 3-77% (median 15%). Eleven studies (n = 12,642), of moderate to low quality, were included in the quantitative synthesis. The need for institutional long-term care was associated with age (pooled odds ratio (OR) 1.02, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.00-1.04), female sex (pooled OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.03-1.92), dementia (pooled OR 2.14, 95% CI: 1.24-3.70) and functional dependency (pooled OR 2.06, 95% CI: 1.58-2.69). Conclusions: discharge to long-term institutional care following acute hospitalisation is common, but current data do not allow prediction of who will make this transition. Potentially important predictors evaluated in community cohorts have not been examined in hospitalised cohorts. Understanding these predictors could help identify individuals at risk early in their admission, and support them in this transition or potentially intervene to reduce their risk.

Outcomes measures in a decade of dementia and mild cognitive impairment trials.

BACKGROUND: In a research study, to give a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of interventions, the outcome measures should reflect the lived experience of the condition. In dementia studies, this necessitates the use of outcome measures which capture the range of disease effects, not limited to cognitive functioning. In particular, assessing the functional impact of cognitive impairment is recommended by regulatory authorities, but there is no consensus on the optimal approach for outcome assessment in dementia research. Our aim was to describe the outcome measures used in dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) intervention studies, with particular interest in those evaluating patient-centred outcomes of functional performance and quality of life. METHODS: We performed a focused review of the literature with multiple embedded checks of internal and external validity. We used the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's register of dementia studies, ALOIS. ALOIS was searched to obtain records of all registered dementia and MCI intervention studies over a 10-year period (2004-2014). We included both published and unpublished materials. Outcomes were categorised as cognitive, functional, quality of life, mood, behaviour, global/disease severity and institutionalisation. RESULTS: From an initial return of 3271 records, we included a total of 805 records, including 676 dementia trial records and 129 MCI trial records. Of these, 78 % (630) originated from peer-reviewed publications and 60 % (487) reported results of pharmacological interventions. Cognitive outcomes were reported in 70 % (563), in contrast with 29 % (237) reporting measures of functional performance and only 13 % (102) reporting quality of life measures. We identified significant heterogeneity in the tools used to capture these outcomes, with frequent use of non-standardised tests. CONCLUSIONS: This focus on cognitive performance questions the extent to which intervention studies for dementia are evaluating outcome measures which are relevant to individual patients and their carers. The heterogeneity in measures, use of bespoke tools and poor descriptions of test strategy all support the need for a more standardised approach to the conduct and reporting of outcomes assessments.

Spotlight on Scotland: Assets and Opportunities for Aging Research in a Shifting Sociopolitical Landscape.

Scotland is a small nation, yet it leads the field in key areas of aging research. With the creation of a devolved government with authority over health and social services, the country has witnessed practice and policy developments that offer distinctive opportunities for innovative research. With multidisciplinary groups of internationally recognized researchers, Scotland is able to take advantage of a unique set of opportunities for aging research: a well-profiled population brings opportunities in population data and linkage to understand people's interactions with health, social care, and other public services; while research on technology and telecare is a distinctive area where Scotland is recognized internationally for using technology to develop effective, high-quality and well-accepted services at relatively low financial cost. The paper also considers free personal care for older people and the national dementia strategy in Scotland. The potential to evaluate the impact of free personal care will provide valuable information for other global health and social care systems. Exploring the impact of the national dementia strategy is another unique area of research that can advance understanding in relation to quality of life and the development of services. The paper concludes that, while Scotland benefits from unique opportunities for progressive public policy and innovative aging research that will provide valuable lessons at the forefront of a globally aging population, the challenges associated with an aging population and increasing cultural diversity must be acknowledged and addressed to ensure that the vision of equality and social justice for all is realized.

Differential impact of two risk communications on antipsychotic prescribing to people with dementia in Scotland: segmented regression time series analysis 2001-2011.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory risk communications are an important method for disseminating drug safety information, but their impact varies. Two significant UK risk communications about antipsychotic use in older people with dementia were issued in 2004 and 2009. These varied considerably in their content and dissemination, allowing examination of their differential impact. METHODS: Segmented regression time-series analysis 2001-2011 for people aged ≥65 years with dementia in 87 Scottish general practices, examining the impact of two pre-specified risk communications in 2004 and 2009 on antipsychotic and other psychotropic prescribing. RESULTS: The percentage of people with dementia prescribed an antipsychotic was 15.9% in quarter 1 2001 and was rising by an estimated 0.6%/quarter before the 2004 risk communication. The 2004 risk communication was sent directly to all prescribers, and specifically recommended review of all patients prescribed relevant drugs. It was associated with an immediate absolute reduction in antipsychotic prescribing of 5.9% (95% CI -6.6 to -5.2) and a change to a stable level of prescribing subsequently. The 2009 risk communication was disseminated in a limited circulation bulletin, and only specifically recommended avoiding initiation if possible. There was no immediate associated impact, but it was associated with a significant decline in prescribing subsequently which appeared driven by a decline in initiation, with the percentage prescribed an antipsychotic falling from 18.4% in Q1 2009 to 13.5% in Q1 2011. There was no widespread substitution of antipsychotics with other psychotropic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The two risk communications were associated with reductions in antipsychotic use, in ways which were compatible with marked differences in their content and dissemination. Further research is needed to ensure that the content and dissemination of regulatory risk communications is optimal, and to track their impact on intended and unintended outcomes. Although rates are falling, antipsychotic prescribing in dementia in Scotland remains unacceptably high.

Rising incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: An accurate indication of the changing incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) within a population is useful in understanding concurrent etiological factors. We aimed to compare the current incidence and other demographic attributes of PIBD in the Scottish population to previous data. METHODS: A national cohort of prospectively and retrospectively acquired incident cases of PIBD diagnosed less than 16 years old in pediatric services in Scotland was captured for the period 2003-2008; historical Scottish data were used for comparison (1990-1995). Age/sex-adjusted incidences were calculated and statistical comparisons made using Poisson regression. RESULTS: During the 2003-2008 study period 436 patients were diagnosed with PIBD in Scotland, giving an adjusted incidence of 7.82/100,000/year. The incidence of Crohn's disease (CD) was 4.75/100,000/year, ulcerative colitis (UC) 2.06/100,000/year, and inflammatory bowel disease-unclassified (IBDU) 1.01/100,000/year. Compared with data from 1990-1995 when 260 IBD patients were diagnosed, significant rises in the incidence of IBD (from 4.45/100,000/year, P < 0.0001), CD (from 2.86/100,000/year, P < 0.0001), and UC (from 1.59/100,000/year, P = 0.023) were seen. There was also a significant reduction in the median age at IBD diagnosis from 12.7 years to 11.9 years between the periods (P = 0.003), with a continued male preponderance. CONCLUSIONS: The number of Scottish children diagnosed with IBD continues to rise, with a statistically significant 76% increase since the mid-1990 s. Furthermore, PIBD is now being diagnosed at a younger age. The reason for this continued rise is not yet clear; however, new hypotheses regarding disease pathogenesis and other population trends may provide further insights in future years.