A proposed methodology for selecting a trichloroethylene inhalation unit risk value for use in risk assessment.

U.S. EPA's 2001 draft assessment of trichloroethylene (TCE) toxicity reviews the existing human and animal data on TCE carcinogenicity and proposes a 20-fold range of cancer potency values for use in risk assessment. Each value in the range is derived from a different source of data, either animal bioassays or epidemiology studies, and thus the range does not represent a distribution which can be characterized by statistical parameters such as a mean or 95% confidence interval. The U.S. EPA suggests users choose a single slope factor from among those it describes as appropriate for the population of interest and mode of exposure, but little guidance is given for making this choice. We propose an approach for determining the most scientifically defensible carcinogenic inhalation unit risk estimate from the range of slope factors developed by U.S. EPA, one that relies on accepted principles for evaluating scientific studies. Based on these considerations, we identify the most appropriate interim unit risk for low-level inhalation exposure as 9 x 10(-7) per microg/m(3). This approach may have fairly broad utility if U.S. EPA elects to use a similar approach in future assessments of other chemicals.

Reproductive and developmental risks from ethylene oxide: a probabilistic characterization of possible regulatory thresholds.

Ethylene oxide is a gas produced in large quantities in the United States that is used primarily as a chemical intermediate in the production of ethylene glycol, propylene glycol, non-ionic surfactants, ethanolamines, glycol ethers, and other chemicals. It has been well established that ethylene oxide can induce cancer, genetic, reproductive and developmental, and acute health effects in animals. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently developing both a cancer potency factor and a reference concentration (RfC) for ethylene oxide. This study used the rich database on the reproductive and developmental effects of ethylene oxide to develop a probabilistic characterization of possible regulatory thresholds for ethylene oxide. This analysis was based on the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, but involved several innovative elements, such as: (1) the use of advanced statistical methods to account for correlations in developmental outcomes among littermates and allow for simultaneous control of covariates (such as litter size); (2) the application of a probabilistic approach for characterizing the uncertainty in extrapolating the animal results to humans; and (3) the use of a quantitative approach to account for the variation in heterogeneity among the human population. This article presents several classes of results, including: (1) probabilistic characterizations of ED10s for two quantal reproductive outcomes-resorption and fetal death, (2) probabilistic characterizations of one developmental outcome-the dose expected to yield a 5% reduction in fetal (or pup) weight, (3) estimates of the RfCs that would result from using these values in the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, and (4) a probabilistic characterization of the level of ethylene oxide exposure that would be expected to yield a 1/1,000 increase in the risk of reproductive or developmental outcomes in exposed human populations.

Dose-response analyses of the carcinogenic effects of trichloroethylene in experimental animals.

In lifetime bioassays, trichloroethylene (TCE, CAS No. 79-01-6) causes liver tumors in mice following gavage, liver and lung tumors in mice following inhalation, and kidney tumors in rats following gavage or inhalation. Recently developed pharmacokinetic models provide estimates of internal, target-organ doses of the TCE metabolites thought responsible for these tumor responses. Dose-response analyses following recently proposed methods for carcinogen risk assessment from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) are conducted on the animal tumor data using the pharmacokinetic dosimeters to derive a series of alternative projections of the potential carcinogenic potency of TCE in humans exposed to low environmental concentrations. Although mechanistic considerations suggest action of possibly nonlinear processes, dose-response shapes in the observable range of tumor incidence evince little sign of such patterns. Results depend on which of several alternative pharmacokinetic analyses are used to define target-organ doses. Human potency projections under the U.S. EPA linear method based on mouse liver tumors and internal dosimetry equal or somewhat exceed calculations based on administered dose, and projections based on mouse liver tumors exceed those from mouse lung or rat kidney tumors. Estimates of the carcinogenic potency of the two primary oxidative metabolites of TCE--trichloroacetic acid and dichloroacetic acid, which are mouse liver carcinogens in their own right--are also made, but it is not clear whether the carcinogenic potency of TCE can be quantitatively ascribed to metabolic generation of these metabolites.

Empirical scaling of single oral lethal doses across mammalian species based on a large database.

The scaling of administered doses to achieve equal degrees of toxic effect in different species has been relatively poorly examined for noncancer toxicity, either empirically or theoretically. We investigate empirical patterns in the correspondence of single oral dose LD50 values across several mammalian species for a large number of chemicals based on data reported in the RTECS database maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We find a good correspondence of LD50 values across species when the dose levels are expressed in terms of mg administered per kg of body mass. Our findings contrast with earlier analyses that support scaling doses by the 3/4-power of body mass to achieve equal subacute toxicity of antineoplastic agents. We suggest that, especially for severe toxicity, single- and repeated-dosing regimes may have different cross-species scaling properties, as they may depend on standing levels of defenses and rate of regeneration of defenses, respectively.

Evidence for a link between local and seasonal cycles in gene frequencies and latitudinal gene clines in a cyclic parthenogen.

In an earlier study (Rhombergh et al., Can. J. Genet. Cytol. 27: 224-232, 1985) of natural populations of the cyclic parthenogenetic Rose aphids, Macrosiphum rosae, 6 out of 31 loci were found to be polymorphic and one locus (Esterase-4) showed cyclic seasonal changes in gene and genotypic frequencies. Assuming that the Est-4 polymorphism was balanced and due to some climatic factor that varies seasonally, and realizing that most environmental factors that vary seasonally also vary latitudinally, we predicted existence of a latitudinal gene cline at this locus. In the present study we surveyed four polymorphic loci (chosen to be used as markers) in six geographic populations spanning over 1200 km between the United States and Canada and found all four loci to have latitudinal clines. We think that the gene clines are due to a latitudinal cline in the degree of advancement of local populations through the seasonal cycle, and have called such a pattern a 'seasonal phase cline'. The results are discussed in relation to the temporal instability of local patterns and persistence of genetic variability on the large scale in aphids. It is argued that population structure of aphids makes retention of selectively neutral or weakly selected polymorphisms difficult.

A Comprehensive Study of Genic Variation in Natural Populations of Drosophila melanogaster. II. Estimates of Heterozygosity and Patterns of Geographic Differentiation.

A study of genic variation in natural population of D. melanogaster was undertaken (1) to obtain a better estimate of heterozygosity by sampling a relatively large number of gene loci and (2) to identify different groups of polymorphic loci whose variation patterns might suggest different kinds of selection forces. A total of 117 gene loci (coding for 79 enzymes and 38 abundant proteins) were studied in 15 geographically distant populations originating from different continents. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) of the 117 gene loci studied, 61 are polymorphic and 56 are uniformly monomorphic everywhere. (2) An average population is polymorphic for 43% of its gene loci and an average individual is heterozygous for 10% of its gene loci. These estimates are remarkably similar among populations. (3) The average within-locality heterozygosity (H(S)) for polymorphic loci is uniformly distributed over the range of heterozygosity observed; i.e. , given that a locus has any local variation, it is nearly as likely to have a lot as a little. (4) The distribution of F(ST) (fixation index) is strongly skewed, with a prominent mode at 8-10% and a long tail of high values reaching a maximum of 58%. Two-thirds of all loci fall within the bell-shaped distribution centered on an F(ST) of 8-10%, a result compatible with the notion that they are experiencing a common tendency toward small interlocality differences owing to extensive gene flow among populations. (5) The distribution of total heterozygosity (H(T)) has a prominent bimodal distribution. The lower mode consists of loci with single prominent allele and a few uncommon ones and the upper mode consists of clinally varying loci with a high F(ST ) (e.g., Adh and G6-pd), loci with many alleles in high frequency (e.g., Ao and Xdh) and loci with two alleles in high frequency in all populations but, with little interpopulational differentiation (e.g., Est-6 and alpha-Fuc). The loci in the lower mode are probably under purifying selection; a large proportion of those in the latter mode may be under balancing selection. (6) Comparison of genic variation for loci located inside vs. outside inversions, comparison of F(ST) for inversions and their associated genes, and comparison of F(ST) and map position for pairs of loci all suggest that, while linkage has some influence, it does not seem to constrain the pattern of variation that a locus may develop. (7) Eighteen polymorphic loci show latitudinal variation in allele frequencies which are consistent in populations from different continents. (8) Estimates of Nei genetic distance between population pairs are generally low between populations on the same continent and high between populations on different continents. There are two important exceptions: population pairs for which both localities are in the temperate zone show no relationship to distance, and in cases where both populations are tropical or subtropical, the genetic distance is higher than for the temperate-tropical comparisons and seem even higher than one would expect from the geographic distance separating them. The latter observation suggests that either geographic separation outweighs differences in environment in determining the genetic composition of a population or that all tropical populations are not experiencing the same environment.-The results are discussed in relation to the neutralist-selectionist controversy of genic variation and two important conclusions are drawn: First, there is a negative correlation between the number of loci sampled and the resulting heterozygosity. This means that available estimates of heterozygosity, 85% of which are based on 30 or fewer loci, are high and hence not appropriate for making between-taxa comparisons. Secondly, there is a group of loci, comprising one-third of polymorphic loci (or about 15% of all loci studied), that is distinguishable by different patterns of variation within and among populations. Most of these loci have clinal variation which is consistent with the hypothesis that their genetic variation is maintained by balancing selection.

A Comprehensive Study of Genic Variation in Natural Populations of Drosophila melanogaster. I. Estimates of Gene Flow from Rare Alleles.

In order to assess the evolutionary significance of molecular variation in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster, we have started a comprehensive genetic variation study program employing a relatively large number of gene-protein loci and an array of populations obtained from various geographic locations throughout the world. In this first report we provide estimates of gene flow based on the spatial distributions of rare alleles at 117 gene loci in 15 worldwide populations of D. melanogaster . Estimates of Nm (number of migrants exchanged per generation among populations) range from 1.09 in East-Asian populations (Taiwan, Vietnam and Australia) to 2.66 in West-Coast populations of North America. These estimates, among geographic populations separated by hundreds or even thousands of miles, suggest that gene flow among neighboring populations of D. melanogaster is quite extensive. This means that, for selectively neutral genes, we should expect little differentiation among neighboring populations. A survey of eight West-Coast populations of D. melanogaster (geographically comparable to Drosophila pseudoobscura) showed that in spite of extensive gene flow, populations of D. melanogaster show much more geographic differentiation than comparable populations of D. pseudoobscura. From this we conclude that migration in combination with natural selection rather than migration alone is responsible for the geographic uniformity of molecular polymorphisms in D. pseudoobscura.