Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization.

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Matèrn models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Sustained reduction of the dengue vector population resulting from an integrated control strategy applied in two Brazilian cities.

Aedes aegypti has developed evolution-driven adaptations for surviving in the domestic human habitat. Several trap models have been designed considering these strategies and tested for monitoring this efficient vector of Dengue. Here, we report a real-scale evaluation of a system for monitoring and controlling mosquito populations based on egg sampling coupled with geographic information systems technology. The SMCP-Aedes, a system based on open technology and open data standards, was set up from March/2008 to October/2011 as a pilot trial in two sites of Pernambuco -Brazil: Ipojuca (10,000 residents) and Santa Cruz (83,000), in a joint effort of health authorities and staff, and a network of scientists providing scientific support. A widespread infestation by Aedes was found in both sites in 2008-2009, with 96.8%-100% trap positivity. Egg densities were markedly higher in SCC than in Ipojuca. A 90% decrease in egg density was recorded in SCC after two years of sustained control pressure imposed by suppression of >7,500,000 eggs and >3,200 adults, plus larval control by adding fishes to cisterns. In Ipojuca, 1.1 million mosquito eggs were suppressed and a 77% reduction in egg density was achieved. This study aimed at assessing the applicability of a system using GIS and spatial statistic analysis tools for quantitative assessment of mosquito populations. It also provided useful information on the requirements for reducing well-established mosquito populations. Results from two cities led us to conclude that the success in markedly reducing an Aedes population required the appropriate choice of control measures for sustained mass elimination guided by a user-friendly mosquito surveillance system. The system was able to support interventional decisions and to assess the program's success. Additionally, it created a stimulating environment for health staff and residents, which had a positive impact on their commitment to the dengue control program.

[A proposal for using data from antimicrobial prescriptions: the EUREQA experience]. / Proposta sobre uso de dados de receitas de antimicrobianos retidas: a experiência EUREQA.

This study demonstrates that the use of information from medical prescriptions is essential for understanding the dynamics of community bacterial resistance. The resulting analysis can also influence and help establish more adequate public health policies on the control and optimization of antimicrobial use. The article demonstrates the use of a logical model developed by the EUREQA project for acquisition, classification, interpretation, and analysis of data from prescriptions for oral antimicrobial use.

Developing new approaches for detecting and preventing Aedes aegypti population outbreaks: basis for surveillance, alert and control system.

A new approach to dengue vector surveillance based on permanent egg-collection using a modified ovitrap and Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis(Bti) was evaluated in different urban landscapes in Recife, Northeast Brazil. From April 2004 to April 2005, 13 egg-collection cycles of four weeks were carried out. Geo-referenced ovitraps containing grass infusion, Bti and three paddles were placed at fixed sampling stations distributed over five selected sites. Continuous egg-collections yielded more than four million eggs laid into 464 sentinel-ovitraps over one year. The overall positive ovitrap index was 98.5% (over 5,616 trap observations). The egg density index ranged from 100 to 2,500 eggs per trap-cycle, indicating a wide spread and high density of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) breeding populations in all sites. Fluctuations in population density over time were observed, particularly a marked increase from January on, or later, according to site. Massive egg-collection carried out at one of the sites prevented such a population outbreak. At intra-site level, egg counts made it possible to identify spots where the vector population is consistently concentrated over the time, pinpointing areas that should be considered high priority for control activities. The results indicate that these could be promising strategies for detecting and preventing Ae. aegypti population outbreaks.

Accuracy of clinical diagnosis of acute respiratory distress syndrome in comparison with autopsy findings.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the American-European Consensus Conference (AECC) definition of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) to autopsy findings. METHODS: All patients who died in the intensive care unit of the Federal University of Juiz de Fora University Hospital between 1995 and 2003 and were submitted to autopsy were included in the study. Patient clinical charts were reviewed to establish whether cases met the AECC criteria for a diagnosis of ARDS, histologically defined as the presence of diffuse alveolar damage (DAD). RESULTS: During the study period, 592 patients died, and 22 were submitted to autopsy. Of those 22 patients, 10 (45%) met the AECC criteria, and 7 (32%) met the histopathological criteria for DAD. The AECC clinical criteria presented a sensitivity of 71% (95%CI: 36-92%) and a specificity of 67% (95%CI: 42-85%). The positive and negative predictive values were, respectively, 50 and 83%, whereas the positive and negative likelihood ratios were, respectively, 2.33 and 0.47. The histopathological findings in the 5 patients who met AECC criteria but did not present DAD were pneumonia (n = 2), pulmonary embolism (n = 1), tuberculosis (n = 1), and cryptococcosis (n = 1). CONCLUSION: The accuracy of the AECC definition of ARDS was godless than satisfactory. Due to the low positive predictive value and the low positive likelihood ratio, other hypotheses must be considered when ARDS is suspected.