Residential greenness, asthma, and lung function among children at high risk of allergic sensitization: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While benefits of greenness to health have been reported, findings specific to child respiratory health are inconsistent. METHODS: We utilized a prospective birth cohort followed from birth to age 7 years (n = 617). Residential surrounding greenness was quantified via Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within 200, 400, and 800 m distances from geocoded home addresses at birth, age 7 years, and across childhood. Respiratory health outcomes were assessed at age 7 years, including asthma and lung function [percent predicted forced expiratory volume in the first second (%FEV1), percent predicted forced vital capacity (%FVC), and percent predicted ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second to forced vital capacity (%FEV1/FVC)]. We assessed associations using linear and logistic regression models adjusted for community deprivation, household income, and traffic-related air pollution. We tested for effect measure modification by atopic status. RESULTS: We noted evidence of positive confounding as inverse associations were attenuated upon adjustment in the multivariable models. We found evidence of effect measure modification of NDVI and asthma within 400 m at age 7 years by atopic status (p = 0.04), whereby children sensitized to common allergens were more likely to develop asthma as exposure to greenness increased (OR = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.9, 2.0) versus children not sensitized to common allergens (OR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.5, 1.2). We found consistently positive associations between NDVI and %FEV1 and %FVC which similarly evidenced positive confounding upon adjustment. In the adjusted regression models, NDVI at 7 years of age was associated with %FEV1 (200 m: ß = 2.1, 95% CI: 0.1, 3.3; 400 m: ß = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.3, 2.9) and %FVC (200 m: ß = 1.8, 95% CI: 0.7, 3.0; 400 m: ß = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.3, 2.8; 800 m: ß = 1.5, 95% CI: 0.1, 2.8). Adjusted results for %FEV1/FVC were non-significant except exposure at birth in the 400 m buffer (ß = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.1, 1.5). We found no evidence of effect measure modification of NDVI by atopic status for objective measures of lung function. CONCLUSION: Sensitivity to allergens may modify the effect of greenness on risk for asthma in children but greenness is likely beneficial for concurrent lung function regardless of allergic status.

ExpoKids: An R-based tool for characterizing aggregate chemical exposure during childhood.

BACKGROUND: Aggregate exposure, the combined exposures to a single chemical from all pathways, is a critical children's health issue. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to develop a tool to illustrate potential differences in aggregate exposure at various childhood lifestages and the adult lifestage. METHODS: We developed ExpoKids (an R-based tool) using oral exposure estimates across lifestages generated by US EPA's Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool (ExpoFIRST). RESULTS: ExpoKids is applied to illustrate aggregate oral exposure, for ten media, as average daily doses (ADD) and lifetime average daily doses (LADD) in five graphs organized across seven postnatal childhood lifestages and the adult lifestage. This data visualization tool conveys ExpoFIRST findings, from available exposure data, to highlight the relative contributions of media and lifestages to chemical exposure. To evaluate the effectiveness of ExpoKids, three chemical case examples (di[2-ethylhexyl] phthalate [DEHP], manganese, and endosulfan) were explored. Data available from the published literature and databases for each case example were used to explore research questions regarding media and lifestage contributions to aggregate exposure. SIGNIFICANCE: These illustrative case examples demonstrate ExpoKids' versatile application to explore a diverse set of children's health risk assessment and management questions by visually depicting specific media and lifestage contributions to aggregate exposure.

A Cumulative Risk Perspective for Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Professionals.

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) addresses the combined risk associated with chemical and non-chemical exposures. Although CRA approaches are utilized in environmental and ecological contexts, they are rarely applied in workplaces. In this perspectives article, we strive to raise awareness among occupational health and safety (OHS) professionals and foster the greater adoption of a CRA perspective in practice. Specifically, we provide an overview of CRA literature as well as preliminary guidance on when to consider a CRA approach in occupational settings and how to establish reasonable boundaries. Examples of possible workplace co-exposures and voluntary risk management actions are discussed. We also highlight important implications for workplace CRA research and practice. In particular, future needs include simple tools for identifying combinations of chemical and non-chemical exposures, uniform risk management guidelines, and risk communication materials. Further development of practical CRA methods and tools are essential to meet the needs of complex and changing work environments.

Using high-resolution residential greenspace measures in an urban environment to assess risks of allergy outcomes in children.

Despite reported health benefits of urban greenspace (gs), the epidemiological evidence is less clear for allergic disease. To address a limitation of previous research, we examined the associations of medium- and high-resolution residential gs measures and tree and/or grass canopies with allergic outcomes for children enrolled in the longitudinal cincinnati childhood allergy and air pollution study (ccaaps). We estimated residential gs based on 400 m radial buffers around participant addresses (n = 478) using the normalized differential vegetation index (ndvi) and land cover-derived urban greenspace (ugs) (tree and grass coverage, combined and separate) at 30 m and 1.5-2.5 m resolution, respectively. Associations between outdoor aeroallergen sensitization and allergic rhinitis at age 7 and residential gs measures at different exposure windows were examined using multivariable logistic regression models. A 10% increase in ugs-derived grass coverage was associated with an increased risk of sensitization to grass pollens (adjusted odds ratio [aor]: 1.27; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.58). For each 10% increase in ugs-derived tree canopy coverage, nonstatistically significant decreased odds were found for grass pollen sensitization, tree pollen sensitization, and sensitization to either (aor range = 0.87-0.94). Results similar in magnitude to ugs-tree canopy coverage were detected for ndvi and allergic sensitizations. High-resolution (down to 1.5 m) gs measures of grass- and tree-covered areas showed associations in opposite directions for different allergy outcomes. These data suggest that measures strongly correlated with tree canopy (e.g., ndvi) may be insufficient to detect health effects associated with proximity to different types of vegetation or help elucidate mechanisms related to specific gs exposure pathways.

How similar is similar enough? A sufficient similarity case study with Ginkgo biloba extract.

Botanical dietary supplements are complex mixtures that can be highly variable in composition and quality, making safety evaluation difficult. A key challenge is determining how diverse products in the marketplace relate to chemically and toxicologically characterized reference samples (i.e., how similar must a product be in order to be well-represented by the tested reference sample?). Ginkgo biloba extract (GBE) was used as a case study to develop and evaluate approaches for determining sufficient similarity. Multiple GBE extracts were evaluated for chemical and biological-response similarity. Chemical similarity was assessed using untargeted and targeted chemistry approaches. Biological similarity was evaluated using in vitro liver models and short-term rodent studies. Statistical and data visualization methods were then used to make decisions about the similarity of products to the reference sample. A majority of the 26 GBE samples tested (62%) were consistently determined to be sufficiently similar to the reference sample, while 27% were different from the reference GBE, and 12% were either similar or different depending on the method used. This case study demonstrated that approaches to evaluate sufficient similarity allow for critical evaluation of complex mixtures so that safety data from the tested reference can be applied to untested materials.

Characterizing Risk for Cumulative Risk Assessments.

In assessing environmental health risks, the risk characterization step synthesizes information gathered in evaluating exposures to stressors together with dose-response relationships, characteristics of the exposed population, and external environmental conditions. This article summarizes key steps of a cumulative risk assessment (CRA) followed by a discussion of considerations for characterizing cumulative risks. Cumulative risk characterizations differ considerably from single chemical- or single source-based risk characterization. CRAs typically focus on a specific population instead of a pollutant or pollutant source and should include an evaluation of all relevant sources contributing to the exposures in the population and other factors that influence dose-response relationships. Second, CRAs may include influential environmental and population-specific conditions, involving multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors. Third, a CRA could examine multiple health effects, reflecting joint toxicity and the potential for toxicological interactions. Fourth, the complexities often necessitate simplifying methods, including judgment-based and semi-quantitative indices that collapse disparate data into numerical scores. Fifth, because of the higher dimensionality and potentially large number of interactions, information needed to quantify risk is typically incomplete, necessitating an uncertainty analysis. Three approaches that could be used for characterizing risks in a CRA are presented: the multiroute hazard index, stressor grouping by exposure and toxicity, and indices for screening multiple factors and conditions. Other key roles of the risk characterization in CRAs are also described, mainly the translational aspect of including a characterization summary for lay readers (in addition to the technical analysis), and placing the results in the context of the likely risk-based decisions.

Swine exposure and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection among hospitalized patients with skin and soft tissue infections in Illinois: A ZIP code-level analysis.

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), a bacterial pathogen, is a predominant cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in the United States. Swine-production facilities have been recognized as potential environmental reservoirs of MRSA. To better understand how swine production may contribute to MRSA infection, we evaluated the association between MRSA infection among SSTI inpatients and exposure measures derived from national swine inventory data. METHODS: Based on adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression models, we evaluated the association between swine exposure metrics and MRSA infections among all Illinois inpatient hospitalizations for SSTI from January 2008 through July 2011. We also assessed if swine exposures had greater association with suspected community-onset MRSA (CO-MRSA) compared to suspected hospital-onset MRSA (HO-MRSA). Exposures were estimated using the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator, generating the number of farms with greater than 1000 swine per residential ZIP code and the residential ZIP code-level swine density (swine/km2). RESULTS: For every increase in 100 swine/km2 within a residential ZIP code, the adjusted OR (aOR) for MRSA infection was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.28-1.45). For every additional large farm (i.e., >1000 swine) per ZIP code, the aOR for MRSA infection was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.04-1.07). The aOR for ZIP codes with any large farms compared to those with no large farms was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.19-1.29). We saw no evidence of an increased association for CO-MRSA compared to HO-MRSA with either continuous exposure metric (aORs=0.99), and observed inconsistent results across exposure categories. CONCLUSIONS: These publicly-available, ecological exposure data demonstrated positive associations between swine exposure measures and individual-level MRSA infections among SSTI inpatients. Though it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions due to limitations of the data, these findings suggest that the risk of MRSA may increase based on indirect environmental exposure to swine production. Future research can address measurement error related to these data by improving exposure assessment precision, increased specification of MRSA strain, and better characterization of specific environmental exposure pathways.

Method to assess component contribution to toxicity of complex mixtures: Assessment of puberty acquisition in rats exposed to disinfection byproducts.

A method based on regression modeling was developed to discern the contribution of component chemicals to the toxicity of highly complex, environmentally realistic mixtures of disinfection byproducts (DBPs). Chemical disinfection of drinking water forms DBP mixtures. Because of concerns about possible reproductive and developmental toxicity, a whole mixture (WM) of DBPs produced by chlorination of a water concentrate was administered as drinking water to Sprague-Dawley (S-D) rats in a multigenerational study. Age of puberty acquisition, i.e., preputial separation (PPS) and vaginal opening (VO), was examined in male and female offspring, respectively. When compared to controls, a slight, but statistically significant delay in puberty acquisition was observed in females but not in males. WM-induced differences in the age at puberty acquisition were compared to those reported in S-D rats administered either a defined mixture (DM) of nine regulated DBPs or individual DBPs. Regression models were developed using individual animal data on age at PPS or VO from the DM study. Puberty acquisition data reported in the WM and individual DBP studies were then compared with the DM models. The delay in puberty acquisition observed in the WM-treated female rats could not be distinguished from delays predicted by the DM regression model, suggesting that the nine regulated DBPs in the DM might account for much of the delay observed in the WM. This method is applicable to mixtures of other types of chemicals and other endpoints.

Cumulative risk assessment lessons learned: a review of case studies and issue papers.

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) examine potential risks posed by exposure to multiple and sometimes disparate environmental stressors. CRAs are more resource intensive than single chemical assessments, and pose additional challenges and sources of uncertainty. CRAs may examine the impact of several factors on risk, including exposure magnitude and timing, chemical mixture composition, as well as physical, biological, or psychosocial stressors. CRAs are meant to increase the relevance of risk assessments, providing decision makers with information based on real world exposure scenarios that improve the characterization of actual risks and hazards. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has evaluated a number of CRAs, performed by or commissioned for the Agency, to seek insight into CRA concepts, methods, and lessons learned. In this article, ten case studies and five issue papers on key CRA topics are examined and a set of lessons learned are identified for CRA implementation. The lessons address the iterative nature of CRAs, importance of considering vulnerability, need for stakeholder engagement, value of a tiered approach, new methods to assess multiroute exposures to chemical mixtures, and the impact of geographical scale on approach and purpose.

Joint exposure to chemical and nonchemical neurodevelopmental stressors in U.S. women of reproductive age in NHANES.

Lead (Pb) and methyl mercury (MeHg) are well established neurodevelopmental toxicants (NDTs), but joint exposure to chemical and nonchemical (e.g., maternal stress) stressors has rarely been considered. We characterized exposure to Pb, MeHg and a measure of physiological dysregulation associated with chronic stress and examined race/ethnicity as a predictor of joint NDT exposure. Using data from the 2003-2004 NHANES, potential chronic stress exposure was estimated using allostatic load (AL), a quantitative measure of physiological dysregulation. A Hazard Index was calculated for joint exposure to Pb and MeHg (HI(NDT)). Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between an indicator of elevated joint NDT exposures (HI(NDT) > 1) and race/ethnicity. The multivariate model was stratified by AL groups to examine effect measure modification. African American (adjusted odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval] = 2.2 [1.4, 3.3]) and Mexican American (1.4 [0.7, 2.6]) women were more likely to have an HI(NDT) > 1 compared to Caucasian women. Chronic stress was identified as an effect measure modifier with the largest ORs among women with high AL scores (African Americans = 4.3 [2.0, 9.5]; Mexican Americans = 4.2 [1.3, 14.1]). Chronic stress was found to modify the association between elevated joint NDT exposure and race/ethnicity, highlighting the importance of evaluating chemical and nonchemical stressor exposures leading to a common endpoint.

A sensitivity analysis using alternative toxic equivalency factors to estimate U.S. dietary exposures to dioxin-like compounds.

EPA recommends sensitivity analyses when applying the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) method to evaluate exposures to dioxin-like compounds (DLCs). Applying the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 TEF values and estimating average U.S. daily dietary intakes of 25 DLCs from eight food categories, we estimate a toxic equivalency (TEQ) intake of 23 pg/day. Among DLCs, PCB 126 (26%) and 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD (23%) dominate TEQ intakes. Among food categories, milk (14%), other dairy (28%), beef (25%), and seafood (18%) most influenced TEQ intakes. We develop two approaches to estimate alternative TEF values. Based on WHO's assumption regarding TEF uncertainty, Approach1 estimates upper and lower TEFs for each DLC by multiplying and dividing, respectively, its individual TEF by ± half a log. Based on compiled empirical ranges of relative potency estimates, Approach2 uses percentile values for individual TEFs. Total TEQ intake estimates using the lower and upper TEFs based on Approach1 were 8 and 68 pg TEQ/day, respectively. The 25th and 75th percentile TEFs from Approach2 yielded 12 and 28 pg TEQ/day, respectively. The influential DLCs and food categories remained consistent across alternative TEFs, except at the 90th percentile using Approach2. We highlight the need for developing underlying TEF probability distributions.

Comprehensive assessment of a chlorinated drinking water concentrate in a rat multigenerational reproductive toxicity study.

Some epidemiological studies report associations between drinking water disinfection byproducts (DBPs) and adverse reproductive/developmental effects, e.g., low birth weight, spontaneous abortion, stillbirth, and birth defects. Using a multigenerational rat bioassay, we evaluated an environmentally relevant "whole" mixture of DBPs representative of chlorinated drinking water, including unidentified DBPs as well as realistic proportions of known DBPs at low-toxicity concentrations. Source water from a water utility was concentrated 136-fold, chlorinated, and provided as drinking water to Sprague-Dawley rats. Timed-pregnant females (P0 generation) were exposed during gestation and lactation. Weanlings (F1 generation) continued exposures and were bred to produce an F2 generation. Large sample sizes enhanced statistical power, particularly for pup weight and prenatal loss. No adverse effects were observed for pup weight, prenatal loss, pregnancy rate, gestation length, puberty onset in males, growth, estrous cycles, hormone levels, immunological end points, and most neurobehavioral end points. Significant, albeit slight, effects included delayed puberty for F1 females, reduced caput epidydimal sperm counts in F1 adult males, and increased incidences of thyroid follicular cell hypertrophy in adult females. These results highlight areas for future research, while the largely negative findings, particularly for pup weight and prenatal loss, are notable.

Cumulative risk assessment toolbox: methods and approaches for the practitioner.

The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

An empirical approach to sufficient similarity: combining exposure data and mixtures toxicology data.

When assessing risks posed by environmental chemical mixtures, whole mixture approaches are preferred to component approaches. When toxicological data on whole mixtures as they occur in the environment are not available, Environmental Protection Agency guidance states that toxicity data from a mixture considered "sufficiently similar" to the environmental mixture can serve as a surrogate. We propose a novel method to examine whether mixtures are sufficiently similar, when exposure data and mixture toxicity study data from at least one representative mixture are available. We define sufficient similarity using equivalence testing methodology comparing the distance between benchmark dose estimates for mixtures in both data-rich and data-poor cases. We construct a "similar mixtures risk indicator"(SMRI) (analogous to the hazard index) on sufficiently similar mixtures linking exposure data with mixtures toxicology data. The methods are illustrated using pyrethroid mixtures occurrence data collected in child care centers (CCC) and dose-response data examining acute neurobehavioral effects of pyrethroid mixtures in rats. Our method shows that the mixtures from 90% of the CCCs were sufficiently similar to the dose-response study mixture. Using exposure estimates for a hypothetical child, the 95th percentile of the (weighted) SMRI for these sufficiently similar mixtures was 0.20 (i.e., where SMRI <1, less concern; >1, more concern).

Disinfection byproduct formation in reverse-osmosis concentrated and lyophilized natural organic matter from a drinking water source.

Drinking water treatment and disinfection byproduct (DBP) research can be complicated by natural organic matter (NOM) temporal variability. NOM preservation by lyophilization (freeze-drying) has been long practiced to address this issue; however, its applicability for drinking water research has been limited because the selected NOM sources are atypical of most drinking water sources. The purpose of this research was to demonstrate that reconstituted NOM from a lyophilized reverse-osmosis (RO) concentrate of a typical drinking water source closely represents DBP formation in the original NOM. A preliminary experiment assessed DBP formation kinetics and yields in concentrated NOM, which demonstrated that chlorine decays faster in concentrate, in some cases leading to altered DBP speciation. Potential changes in NOM reactivity caused by lyophilization were evaluated by chlorination of lyophilized and reconstituted NOM, its parent RO concentrate, and the source water. Bromide lost during RO concentration was replaced by adding potassium bromide prior to chlorination. Although total measured DBP formation tended to decrease slightly and unidentified halogenated organic formation tended to increase slightly as a result of RO concentration, the changes associated with lyophilization were minor. In lyophilized NOM reconstituted back to source water TOC levels and then chlorinated, the concentrations of 19 of 21 measured DBPs, constituting 96% of the total identified DBP mass, were statistically indistinguishable from those in the chlorinated source water. Furthermore, the concentrations of 16 of 21 DBPs in lyophilized NOM reconstituted back to the RO concentrate TOC levels, constituting 86% DBP mass, were statistically indistinguishable from those in the RO concentrate. This study suggests that lyophilization can be used to preserve concentrated NOM without substantially altering the precursors to DBP formation.

An in silico approach for evaluating a fraction-based, risk assessment method for total petroleum hydrocarbon mixtures.

Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP) and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG) developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC) number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (˜80% on average across various fractions) with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

Developmental toxicity evaluations of whole mixtures of disinfection by-products using concentrated drinking water in rats: gestational and lactational effects of sulfate and sodium.

A developmental toxicity bioassay was used in three experiments to evaluate water concentrates for suitability in multigenerational studies. First, chlorinated water was concentrated 135-fold by reverse osmosis; select lost disinfection by-products were spiked back. Concentrate was provided as drinking water to Sprague-Dawley and F344 rats from gestation day 6 to postnatal day 6. Maternal serum levels of luteinizing hormone on gestation day 10 were unaffected by treatment for both strains. Treated dams had increased water consumption, and increased incidences of polyuria, diarrhea, and (in Sprague-Dawley rats) red perinasal staining. Pup weights were reduced. An increased incidence of eye defects was seen in F344 litters. Chemical analysis of the concentrate revealed high sodium (6.6 g/l) and sulfate (10.4 g/l) levels. To confirm that these chemicals caused polyuria and osmotic diarrhea, respectively, Na2SO4 (5-20 g/l) or NaCl (16.5 g/l) was provided to rats in drinking water. Water consumption was increased at 5- and 10-g Na2SO4/l and with NaCl. Pup weights were reduced at 20-g Na2SO4/l. Dose-related incidences and severity of polyuria and diarrhea occurred in Na2SO4-treated rats; perinasal staining was seen at 20 g/l. NaCl caused polyuria and perinasal staining, but not diarrhea. Subsequently, water was concentrated ∼120-fold and sulfate levels were reduced by barium hydroxide before chlorination, yielding lower sodium (≤1.5 g/l) and sulfate (≤2.1 g/l) levels. Treatment resulted in increased water consumption, but pup weight and survival were unaffected. There were no treatment-related clinical findings, indicating that mixtures produced by the second method are suitable for multigenerational testing.

Estimation of individual rodent water consumption from group consumption data for gestation, lactation, and postweaning life stages using linear regression models.

In rodent bioassays where chemicals are administered in the drinking water, water consumption data for individual animals are needed to estimate chemical exposures accurately. If multiple animals share a common water source, as occurs in some studies, only the total amount of drinking water consumed by all animals utilizing the common source is directly measurable, and water consumption rates for individual animals are not available. In the Four Lab Study of the US Environmental Protection Agency, which included a multigenerational rodent bioassay, a complex mixture of drinking water disinfection by-products was delivered to multiple Sprague-Dawley rats from a common drinking water container. To estimate disinfection by-product mixture exposure for each animal, authors developed four log-linear regression models to allocate water consumption among rats sharing a common water container. The four models represented three animal lifestages: Gestation, Lactation, and Postweaning, with separate Postweaning models for male and female. Authors used data from six Sprague-Dawley rat bioassays to develop these models from available individual cage data for the Postweaning models, and available individual animal data for the Gestation and Lactation models. The r(2) values for the model fits were good, ranging from 0.67 to 0.92. The Gestation and Lactation models were generally quite accurate in predicting average daily water consumption whereas the Postweaning models were less robust. These models can be generalized for use in other reproductive and developmental bioassays where common water sources are used and data on the explanatory variables are available.

Prospective power calculations for the Four Lab study of a multigenerational reproductive/developmental toxicity rodent bioassay using a complex mixture of disinfection by-products in the low-response region.

In complex mixture toxicology, there is growing emphasis on testing environmentally representative doses that improve the relevance of results for health risk assessment, but are typically much lower than those used in traditional toxicology studies. Traditional experimental designs with typical sample sizes may have insufficient statistical power to detect effects caused by environmentally relevant doses. Proper study design, with adequate statistical power, is critical to ensuring that experimental results are useful for environmental health risk assessment. Studies with environmentally realistic complex mixtures have practical constraints on sample concentration factor and sample volume as well as the number of animals that can be accommodated. This article describes methodology for calculation of statistical power for non-independent observations for a multigenerational rodent reproductive/developmental bioassay. The use of the methodology is illustrated using the U.S. EPA's Four Lab study in which rodents were exposed to chlorinated water concentrates containing complex mixtures of drinking water disinfection by-products. Possible experimental designs included two single-block designs and a two-block design. Considering the possible study designs and constraints, a design of two blocks of 100 females with a 40:60 ratio of control:treated animals and a significance level of 0.05 yielded maximum prospective power (~90%) to detect pup weight decreases, while providing the most power to detect increased prenatal loss.