Do Residents Believe that Onchocerciasis Transmission Was Eliminated? Results of A Post-Treatment Surveillance Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices Survey in Three Foci of Uganda.

In Uganda, 15 of 17 foci have interrupted transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) and stopped mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. This 2016 study describes the results of a knowledge, attitude, and practices survey regarding river blindness among participants (N = 1,577) 3-5 years after ivermectin MDA was halted in three foci: Imaramagambo halted in 2012, Kashoya-Kitomi in 2013, and Mt. Elgon in 2011. The study showed high levels of composite knowledge (focus-specific range: 66.8-81.2%) related to river blindness transmission, signs, symptoms, and treatment. However, 38.1% of respondents did not know that blackflies transmitted river blindness. Notably, 72.2% claimed they had not been informed why MDA was stopped, 56.3% did not believe river blindness had been eliminated, and 83.1% wanted ivermectin MDA to resume. During the 3-5 year post-treatment surveillance period, only 27.7% (438 of 1,577) reported being informed of what to do once treatments stopped, with the most knowledgeable hailing from the Mt. Elgon focus (47.9%). This study reinforces the need for programs to intensify health education and information dissemination when MDA is stopped. Programs must remind residents that although biting insects may persist, they no longer transmit river blindness. Incorporating messages about the elimination of river blindness into community health education campaigns can help improve the community's perceptions related to the disease's absence and the ending of a long-standing MDA intervention.

Two Nigerian States (Plateau and Nasarawa) Have Eliminated Transmission of Human Onchocerciasis-A Report of Post-Ivermectin Mass Drug Administration Surveillance.

Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus (causing "river blindness") was interrupted in two states of Nigeria (Plateau and Nasarawa) in 2017 in accordance with 2016 WHO guidelines. Ivermectin mass drug administration was halted in January 2018, and posttreatment surveillance activities were conducted over a 3-year period. Vector Simulium damnosum s.l. flies were collected during the 2019 (39 sites) and 2020 (42 sites) transmission seasons. Head pools were tested by polymerase chain reaction for the presence of third-stage O. volvulus larvae; 15,585 flies were all negative, demonstrating an infective rate of < 1/2,000 with 95% confidence. In 2021, the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Health declared the two-state area as having eliminated transmission. Plateau and Nasarawa states are the first of 30 endemic states in Nigeria to have met the WHO criteria for onchocerciasis elimination. Post-elimination surveillance will need to continue given the risk of reintroduction of transmission from neighboring states.

Simulating a Transmission Assessment Survey: An evaluation of current methods used in determining the elimination of the neglected tropical disease, Lymphatic Filariasis.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) to determine when an evaluation unit (EU) (a designated population survey area) has achieved elimination of transmission of the vector-borne macroparasitic disease Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). These determinations are based on combining data from multiple survey units within an EU; it is unclear how underlying cluster-level variation influences the outcome of the TAS at EU level. We simulate LF infection distribution in an EU and compare three methods for assessing whether LF elimination has occurred based on currently recommended decision thresholds and sampling methods. METHODS: We simulate an EU divided into clusters of varying size and disease prevalence. We produce 1000 samples according to LF TAS examples and WHO guidelines and compare three decision-making approaches: lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) (recommended by WHO), one-sided interval estimate (CI), and nth order statistic (MAX). Summary statistics demonstrating the "pass" rate for the EU under different disease transmission conditions are generated using a versatile SAS® macro. RESULTS: As the prevalence of LF decreases, the LQAS and CI approaches produce increased likelihood of a pass outcome for an EU while some cluster units may still have a high likelihood of transmission. The MAX provides an alternative that increases the likelihood of determining a pass only once the whole area has a low likelihood of transmission. LQAS and CI approaches designed to estimate the LF prevalence in the EU miss hotspots that will continue to transmit infection while the MAX approach focuses on identifying clusters with high risk of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The current TAS methodology has a flaw that may result in false predictions of LF transmission interruption throughout an EU. Modifying the TAS methodology to address results from extreme clusters rather than being based on mean prevalence over an EU will result in greater success for global elimination of LF.

The role of non-governmental development organizations in the implementation of lymphatic filariasis programmes.

The Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) Non-governmental Development Organization (NGDO) Network was established to engage in supporting both international and national LF elimination agendas covering areas such as assisting ministries of health as an on-the-ground link between communities and programmes, which additionally gives the Network members an important voice from the field at international meetings; playing key roles in programme evolution (especially helping to both scale up and scale down mass drug administration [MDA] as elimination thresholds are met); having a role in operational research and developing new programme delivery models that can be taken to scale (such as linkages with other disease programmes and approaches to morbidity management and disability prevention); developing advocacy and policy approaches with other partners; convening other important stakeholders (academic, technical, programmatic and funding); mobilizing financial and technical resources to support programmes; supporting national human resource capacity building to catalyse national ownership of LF programmes; providing leadership in LF governance structures and working in areas of conflict to ensure that everybody in LF-endemic areas enjoys treatment services. Three case studies will illustrate the roles identified for NGDOs in LF programmes covering development of operational research, policy and advocacy linkage between LF and malaria programmes; launching LF morbidity management projects and NGDO's ability to work and deliver LF services in areas of conflict. In addition, the case studies will show the role of NGDOs in mobilising financial and technical resources that support national human resources, leading to national ownership of programmes. Conclusions will be drawn on the role of NGDOs in the Global Alliance for LF elimination and the need for continued partnerships to reach programme goals.

Assessing Hypoendemic Onchocerciasis in Loa loa Endemic Areas of Southeast Nigeria.

Nigeria changed its goal for onchocerciasis from control to transmission elimination. Under the control program, ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) focused only on hyper/meso-endemic local government areas (LGAs) identified by Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis as having ≥ 20% nodule rates. Because transmission is likely in some LGAs where nodule rates are < 20%, the new elimination paradigm requires MDA expansion. Determining which hypoendemic areas require MDA, termed onchocerciasis elimination mapping, is a major challenge. In 2016, we studied 19 ivermectin-naive hypoendemic LGAs in southern Nigeria that bordered LGAs under MDA. Fifty adults and 50 children (aged 5-10 years) were tested in 110 villages for onchocerciasis IgG4 antibody using an Ov16 rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A 10% subset of subjects provided a blood spot for confirmatory Ov16 ELISA. The mean prevalence of RDT positives was 0.5% in the 5,276 children tested (village range, 0.0-4.0%) versus 3.3% in 5,302 adults (village range, 0.0-58.0%). There was 99.3% agreement between the Ov16 RDT and ELISA. Six different MDA launch thresholds were applied to the RDT results based on different recommendations by the Nigeria Onchocerciasis Elimination Committee and the Onchocerciasis Technical Advisory Subgroup of the WHO. Mass drug administration targets for the same area varied tenfold by threshold chosen, from one LGA (population to be treated 221,935) to 13 LGAs (population 2,426,987). Because the Ov16 threshold selected will have considerable cost and resource implications, the decision to initiate MDA should incorporate entomological data demonstrating onchocerciasis transmission.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery.

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

Post-Treatment Surveillance for Lymphatic Filariasis in Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria: Results of Transmission Assessment Surveys.

Following the halt of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF), the WHO recommends at least 4 years of post-treatment surveillance (PTS) to confirm that transmission recrudescence or importation does not occur. The primary means of evaluation during PTS is repeated transmission assessment surveys (TASs) conducted at 2- to 3-year intervals after TAS-1 stop-MDA surveys. This study reports the results of TAS-2 and TAS-3 surveys in Plateau and Nasarawa states (pop. 6.9 million) of Nigeria divided into a minimum of seven evaluation units (EUs) per TAS. A total of 26,536 first- and second-year primary school children (approximately 6-7 years old) were tested for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) between 2014 and 2017. Of 12,313 children tested in TAS-2 surveys, only five (0.04%) were CFA positive, with no more than two positive samples from any one EU, which was below the critical value of 20 per EU. Of 14,240 children tested in TAS-3 surveys, none (0%) were CFA positive. These results indicate that LF transmission remains below sustainable transmission levels and suggest that elimination of transmission has been achieved in Plateau and Nasarawa, Nigeria.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness.

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

The Interruption of Transmission of Human Onchocerciasis by an Annual Mass Drug Administration Program in Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria.

Plateau and Nasarawa states in central Nigeria were endemic for onchocerciasis. The rural populations of these two states received annual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) for a period of 8-26 years (1992-2017). Ivermectin combined with albendazole was given for 8-13 of these years for lymphatic filariasis (LF); the LF MDA program successfully concluded in 2012, but ivermectin MDA continued in areas known to have a baseline meso-/hyperendemic onchocerciasis. In 2017, serological and entomological assessments were undertaken to determine if MDA for onchocerciasis could be stopped in accordance with the current WHO guidelines. Surveys were conducted in 39 sites that included testing 5- to < 10-year-old resident children by using ELISA for OV16 IgG4 antibodies, and Onchocerca volvulus O150 pooled polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of Simulium damnosum s.l. vector heads. Only two of 6,262 children were OV16 positive, and none of 19,056 vector heads were positive for parasite DNA. Therefore, both states were able to meet WHO stop-MDA thresholds of an infection rate in children of < 0.1% and a rate of infective blackflies of <1/2,000, with 95% statistical confidence. Transmission of onchocerciasis was declared interrupted in Plateau and Nasarawa states by the Federal Ministry of Health, and 2.2 million ivermectin treatments/year were stopped in 2018. Post-treatment Surveillance was launched focusing on entomological monitoring on borders with neighboring onchocerciasis-endemic states. An apparent positive impact of the LF MDA program on eliminating hypo-endemic onchocerciasis was observed. This is the first stop-MDA decision for onchocerciasis in Nigeria and the largest single stop-MDA decision for onchocerciasis yet reported. This achievement, along with the process used in adapting and implementing the 2016 WHO stop-MDA guidelines, will be important as a potential model for decision makers and national onchocerciasis elimination committees in other African countries that are charged with advancing their programs.

Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation "slash and clear" vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis.

Attention is increasingly focusing on how best to accelerate progress toward meeting the WHO's 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). For river blindness, a major NTD targeted for elimination, there is a long history of using vector control to suppress transmission, but traditional larvicide-based approaches are limited in their utility. One innovative and sustainable approach, "slash and clear", involves clearing vegetation from breeding areas, and recent field trials indicate that this technique very effectively reduces the biting density of Simulium damnosum s.s. In this study, we use a Bayesian data-driven mathematical modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of this intervention on human onchocerciasis infection. We developed a novel "slash and clear" model describing the effect of the intervention on seasonal black fly biting rates and coupled this with our population dynamics model of Onchocerca volvulus transmission. Our results indicate that supplementing annual drug treatments with "slash and clear" can significantly accelerate the achievement of onchocerciasis elimination. The efficacy of the intervention is not very sensitive to the timing of implementation, and the impact is meaningful even if vegetation is cleared only once per year. As such, this community-driven technique will represent an important option for achieving and sustaining O. volvulus elimination.

The positive influence the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas has had on Africa programs.

A recent article "Is onchocerciasis elimination in Africa feasible by 2025: a perspective based on lessons learnt from the African control programmes" in Infectious Diseases of Poverty claimed that undue influence on African programs by concepts developed by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program of the Americas (OEPA) is detrimental to stopping mass drug administration (MDA) in Africa. This claim is made despite a record year for MDA stoppage in four African countries of > 3.5 million treatments in 2018, far exceeding any past OEPA or African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) stop MDA success.

Comparison of Reported and Survey-Based Coverage in Onchocerciasis Programs over a Period of 8 Years in Cameroon and Uganda.

Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin must reach a high treatment coverage (90% of the eligible population) if onchocerciasis is to be eliminated. Questions have been raised as to whether reported treatment figures reaching such high coverage are reliable. Sample surveys are proposed as the method of choice for "validating" reported coverage figures. The purpose of this study was to compare the district-level MDA coverage reported by programs with contemporaneous surveys of randomly selected respondents living in those same districts. Over an 8-year period, 19,219 households were selected using multistage random sampling; 38,433 adult male and female heads of those households were asked about their recent ivermectin MDA treatment experience. District coverage reports were considered "accurate" if they fell within the 95% CIs determined by the corresponding district's survey. Ninety-eight treatment rounds were evaluated over an 8-year period. Overall, the reported coverage of 96.5% (range: 68-100%) was significantly higher than the 92.5% surveyed coverage (range: 62.1-99.6%, 95% CI: 91.9-93.2%). However, only 20% of districts reported significantly higher coverage than surveys, 68% of district program reports were judged as accurate, and 12% of districts reported significantly lower coverage figures than their corresponding surveys. Eighty-eight percent of districts reported coverage ≥ 90% threshold for success, compared with 97% of surveys that included 90% in their 95% CIs. We conclude that when analyzed statistically at the district level, most surveys verified the reported coverage.

Author Correction: Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of Emily Griswold, which was incorrectly given as Emily Grisworld. This error has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys.

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

Operational Performance of the Onchocerca volvulus "OEPA" Ov16 ELISA Serological Assay in Mapping, Guiding Decisions to Stop Mass Drug Administration, and Posttreatment Surveillance Surveys.

Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination. The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed guidelines for the verification of onchocerciasis elimination that include entomological and epidemiological criteria. The latter require demonstrating with statistical confidence that the infection prevalence in children is less than 0.1%, necessitating an assay with a high degree of specificity. We present an analysis of the performance of the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA) version of the Ov16 enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) when used under operational conditions. In Africa and Latin America, the assay demonstrated 99.98% specificity in 69,888 children in 20 foci where transmission was believed to be interrupted. The assay produced a prevalence estimate equal to that of skin snip microscopy when applied in putatively hypo-endemic zones of Ethiopia. The OEPA Ov16 ELISA demonstrated the specificity required to be effectively deployed to verify transmission elimination under the WHO guidelines, while exhibiting a sensitivity equivalent to skin snip microscopy to identify hypo-endemic areas.

Evaluation of Treatment Coverage and Enhanced Mass Drug Administration for Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis in Five Local Government Areas Treating Twice Per Year in Edo State, Nigeria.

The western region of Edo state in southern Nigeria is highly endemic for onchocerciasis. Despite years of mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin (IVM), reports suggest persistently high prevalence of onchocerciasis, presumably because of poor coverage. In 2016, twice-per-year treatment with IVM (combined with albendazole for lymphatic filariasis in the first round where needed) began in five local government areas (LGAs) of Edo state. We undertook a multistage cluster survey within 3 months after each round of MDA to assess coverage. First-round coverage was poor: among 4,942 people of all ages interviewed from 145 clusters, coverage was 31.1% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 24.1-38.0%). Most respondents were not offered medicines. To improve coverage in the second round, three LGAs were randomized to receive MDA through a "modified campaign" approach focused on improved supervision and monitoring. The other two LGAs continued with standard MDA as before. A similar survey was conducted after the second round, interviewing 3,362 people in 87 clusters across the five LGAs. Coverage was not statistically different from the first round (40.0% [95% CI: 31.0-49.0%]) and there was no significant difference between the groups (P = 0.7), although the standard MDA group showed improvement over round 1 (P < 0.01). The additional cost per treatment in the modified MDA was 1.6 times that of standard MDA. Compliance was excellent among those offered treatment. We concluded that poor mobilization, medicine distribution, and program penetration led to low coverage. These must be addressed to improve treatment coverage in Edo state.

In Southern Nigeria Loa loa Blood Microfilaria Density is Very Low Even in Areas with High Prevalence of Loiasis: Results of a Survey Using the New LoaScope Technology.

Ivermectin treatment can cause central nervous system adverse events (CNS-AEs) in persons with very high-density Loa loa microfilaremia (≥ 30,000 mf/mL blood). Hypoendemic onchocerciasis areas where L. loa is endemic have been excluded from ivermectin mass drug administration programs (MDA) because of the concern for CNS AEs. The rapid assessment procedure for L. loa (RAPLOA) is a questionnaire survey to assess history of eye worm. If ≥ 40% of respondents report eye worm, this correlates with ≥ 2% prevalence of very high-density loiasis microfilaremia, posing an unacceptable risk of CNS-AEs after MDA. In 2016, we conducted a L. loa study in 110 ivermectin-naïve, suspected onchocerciasis hypoendemic villages in southern Nigeria. In previous RAPLOA surveys these villages had prevalences between 10% and 67%. We examined 10,605 residents using the LoaScope, a cell phone-based imaging device for rapidly determining the microfilaria (mf) density of L. loa infections. The mean L. loa village mf prevalence was 6.3% (range 0-29%) and the mean individual mf count among positives was 326 mf/mL. The maximum individual mf count was only 11,429 mf/mL, and among 2,748 persons sampled from the 28 villages with ≥ 40% RAPLOA, the ≥ 2% threshold of very high Loa mf density could be excluded with high statistical confidence (P < 0.01). These findings indicate that ivermectin MDA can be delivered in this area with extremely low risk of L. loa-related CNS-AEs. We also concluded that in Nigeria the RAPLOA survey methodology is not predictive of ≥ 2% prevalence of very high-density L. loa microfilaremia.

Progress toward elimination of onchocerciasis in the Americas.

The Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA) is a regional initiative and international partnership that has made considerable progress toward its goal since it was launched in 1993. Its strategy is based on mass drug administration of ivermectin (Mectizan, donated by MSD, also known as Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA), twice or four times per year, with at least 85% coverage of eligible populations. From 1989 to 2016, 11 741 276 ivermectin treatments have been given in the Americas, eliminating transmission in 11 of 13 foci. The OEPA's success has had a great influence on programs in Africa, especially Sudan and Uganda, which moved from a control to an elimination strategy in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The successes in the Americas have also greatly influenced WHO guidelines for onchocerciasis transmission elimination. With four of the six originally endemic American countries now WHO verified as having eliminated onchocerciasis transmission, and 95% of ivermectin treatments in the region halted, the regional focus is now on the remaining active transmission zone, called the Yanomami Area, on the border between Venezuela and Brazil. Both countries have difficult political climates that hinder the elimination task in this remote and relatively neglected region. As with other elimination efforts, 'the final inch' is often the most difficult task of all.

After 70 years of fighting an age-old scourge, onchocerciasis in Uganda, the end is in sight.

Onchocerciasis causes severe itching, serious skin disease and ocular damage leading to visual impairment or permanent blindness. It is associated with hanging groin, epilepsy, Nakalanga dwarfism and, most recently, nodding disease. This disease affected communities in 17 transmission foci in 37 districts of Uganda, where about 6.7 million people are once at risk. The efforts against onchocerciasis in Uganda commenced in the late 1940s, when vector control was launched using dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane; by 1973, Simulium damnosum had been eliminated in the Victoria focus. Success outside of the Victoria focus was short-lived due to changes in government priorities and the political upheavals of the 1970s and 1980s. With the return of political stability, annual treatment with ivermectin through mass drug administration was launched in the early 1990s. Control of the disease has been successful, but there has been failure in interrupting transmission after more than 15 years. In 2007 Uganda launched a nationwide transmission elimination policy based on twice-per-year treatment and vector control/elimination, with a goal of eliminating river blindness nationwide by 2020. By 2017, 1 157 303 people from six foci had been freed from river blindness. This is the largest population ever declared free under World Health Organization elimination guidelines, providing evidence that elimination of river blindness in Africa is possible.