Long-term and seasonal trend decomposition of Maumee River nutrient inputs to western Lake Erie.

Cyanobacterial blooms in western Lake Erie have recently garnered widespread attention. Current evidence indicates that a major source of the nutrients that fuel these blooms is the Maumee River. We applied a seasonal trend decomposition technique to examine long-term and seasonal changes in Maumee River discharge and nutrient concentrations and loads. Our results indicate similar long-term increases in both regional precipitation and Maumee River discharge (1975-2013), although changes in the seasonal cycles are less pronounced. Total and dissolved phosphorus concentrations declined from the 1970s into the 1990s; since then, total phosphorus concentrations have been relatively stable, while dissolved phosphorus concentrations have increased. However, both total and dissolved phosphorus loads have increased since the 1990s because of the Maumee River discharge increases. Total nitrogen and nitrate concentrations and loads exhibited patterns that were almost the reverse of those of phosphorus, with increases into the 1990s and decreases since then. Seasonal changes in concentrations and loads were also apparent with increases since approximately 1990 in March phosphorus concentrations and loads. These documented changes in phosphorus, nitrogen, and suspended solids likely reflect changing land-use practices. Knowledge of these patterns should facilitate efforts to better manage ongoing eutrophication problems in western Lake Erie.

Record-breaking Lake Erie hypoxia during 2012 drought.

Hypoxia has been observed in the central basin of Lake Erie for decades. To understand the impact of various controlling factors, we analyze a record of hypoxic extents for Lake Erie for 1985­2012 and develop a parsimonious model of their interannual variability. We find that the 2012 North American drought and accompanying low tributary discharge was associated with a record-breaking hypoxic event in Lake Erie, whereas a record-setting harmful algal bloom in 2011 was likely associated with only mild hypoxia. River discharge and the timing of nutrient input therefore impact western basin bloom growth and central basin oxygen demand in distinct ways that merit further investigation. Overall, April to June tributary discharge, May to July soluble reactive phosphorus loading, July wind stress, and June northwesterly wind duration explain 82% of the interannual variability of hypoxia, and discharge alone explains 39%, indicating that meteorological factors need to be considered in the development of nutrient management strategies, especially as both extreme precipitation events and droughts become more frequent under a changing climate.

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions.

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Quantifying phosphorus retention and release in rivers and watersheds using extended end-member mixing analysis (E-EMMA).

Extended end-member mixing analysis (E-EMMA) is presented as a novel empirical method for exploring phosphorus (P) retention and release in rivers and watersheds, as an aid to water-quality management. E-EMMA offers a simple and versatile tool that relies solely on routinely measured P concentration and flow data. E-EMMA was applied to two river systems: the Thames (U.K.) and Sandusky River (U.S.), which drain similar watershed areas but have contrasting dominant P sources and hydrology. For both the Thames and Sandusky, P fluxes at the watershed outlets were strongly influenced by processes that retain and cycle P. However, patterns of P retention were markedly different for the two rivers, linked to differences in P sources and speciation, hydrology and land use. On an annual timescale, up to 48% of the P flux was retained for the Sandusky and up to 14% for the Thames. Under ecologically critical low-flow periods, up to 93% of the P flux was retained for the Sandusky and up to 42% for the Thames. In the main River Thames and the Sandusky River, in-stream processes under low flows were capable of regulating the delivery of P and modifying the timing of delivery in a way that may help to reduce ecological impacts to downstream river reaches, by reducing ambient P concentrations at times of greatest river eutrophication risk. The results also suggest that by moving toward cleaner rivers and improved ecosystem health, the efficiency of P retention may actually increase.

Thirty-year trends in suspended sediment in seven Lake Erie tributaries.

Sediment is an important pollutant for Lake Erie and its tributaries as a carrier of other substances and as a pollutant in its own right. Environmental managers have called for major reductions in sediment loadings in Lake Erie tributaries. In this study, 30-yr (1975-2005) datasets with daily resolution are analyzed to identify and interpret trends in sediment concentrations and loads in major US tributaries to Lake Erie. The Maumee and Sandusky Rivers in agricultural northwest Ohio show continual decreases throughout this period, but the River Raisin shows increases, especially in the last decade. The urban and forested Cuyahoga River shows little trend before 2000 but shows increases since then. The mostly forested Grand River shows strong decreases before 1995, little change thereafter until the early 2000s, and then increases. In most cases, the greatest decreases or smallest increases, depending on the river, are associated with summer and fall and with low flow conditions, whereas the smallest decreases or greatest increases are associated with the spring and with high flow conditions. Analysis of concentration-flow relationships indicates that these changes are not due to weather but reflect positive and negative anthropogenic influences. Sediment decreases in the northwestern Ohio tributaries seem to reflect the successful use of agricultural practices to reduce erosion and prevent sediment loss. Opportunities for further reductions in sediment loads and concentrations lie in better management of sediment losses during winter and spring.

Fractal-based scaling and scale-invariant dispersion of peak concentrations of crop protection chemicals in rivers.

A new regulatory approach is needed to characterize peak pesticide concentrations in surface waters over a range of watershed scales. Methods now in common use rely upon idealized edge-of-field scenarios that ignore scaling effects. Although some watershed-scale regulatory models are available, their complexity generally prevents them from being used duringthe pesticide registration decision process, even though nearly all exposure to both humans and aquatic organisms can occur only at this scale. The theory of fractal geometry offers a simpler method for addressing this regulatory need. Mandelbrot described rivers as "space-filling curves" (Mandelbrot, B. B. The Fractal Geometry of Nature; Freeman: New York, 1983), a class of fractal objects implying two useful properties we exploit in this work. The first is a simple power-law relationship in which log-log plots of maximum daily concentrations as a function of watershed area tend to be linear with a negative slope. We demonstrate that the extrapolation of such plots down to smaller watersheds agrees with edge-of-field concentrations predicted using the Pesticide Root Zone Model, but only when the modeling results are properly adjusted for use intensity within the watershed. We also define a second useful property, "scale-invariant dispersion", in which concentrations are well described by a single analytical solution to the convective--dispersion equation, regardless of scale. Both of these findings make it possible to incorporate the effect of watershed scale directly into regulatory assessments.

Predicted impact of transgenic, herbicidetolerant corn on drinking water quality in vulnerable watersheds of the mid-western USA.

In the intensely farmed corn-growing regions of the mid-western USA, surface waters have often been contaminated by herbicides, principally as a result of rainfall runoff occurring shortly after application of these to corn and other crops. In some vulnerable watersheds, water quality criteria for chronic human exposure through drinking water are occasionally exceeded. We selected three settings representative of vulnerable corn-region watersheds, and used the PRZM-EXAMS model with the Index Reservoir scenario to predict corn herbicide concentrations in the reservoirs as a function of herbicide properties and use pattern, site characteristics and weather in the watersheds. We compared herbicide application scenarios, including broadcast surface pre-plant atrazine and alachlor applications with a glyphosate pre-plant application, scenarios in which losses of herbicides were mitigated by incorporation or banding, and scenarios in which only glyphosate or glufosinate post-emergent herbicides were used with corn genetically modified to be resistant to them. In the absence of drift, in almost all years a single runoff event dominates the input into the reservoir. As a result, annual average pesticide concentrations are highly correlated with annual maximum daily values. The modeled concentrations were generally higher than those derived from monitoring data, even for no-drift model scenarios. Because of their lower post-emergent application rates and greater soil sorptivity, glyphosate and glufosinate loads in runoff were generally one-fifth to one-tenth those of atrazine and alachlor. These model results indicate that the replacement of pre-emergent corn herbicides with the post-emergent herbicides allowed by genetic modification of crops would dramatically reduce herbicide concentrations in vulnerable watersheds. Given the significantly lower chronic mammalian toxicity of these compounds, and their vulnerability to breakdown in the drinking water treatment process, risks to human populations through drinking water would also be reduced.

Trends in agriculture in the LEASEQ watersheds, 1975-1995. Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality.

County-level agricultural statistics were aggregated at the watershed level to provide estimates of trends in land use and agricultural management in the Maumee and Sandusky River watersheds during the period 1975-1995. Average farm size increased by 40% or more, but the number of farms decreased by nearly 40%; the total land area in agriculture also decreased, but only by about 7%. Conservation tillage increased from virtually nothing to nearly 50% of cropland in corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]; most of the change is due to adoption of no-till soybean. The Conservation Reserve Program has enrolled more than 75,000 hectares, but this represents less than 5% of total farmland. The great majority of land classified as highly erodible has been placed under treatment during the study period. Cropland in soybean has increased; land in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and hay has decreased. Cropland in corn has decreased in the Maumee watershed and increased slightly in the Sandusky watershed. Average per-hectare yields of corn, soybean, wheat, and hay have increased by 10 to 40%. Fertilizer phosphorus sales increased until about 1980 and have declined significantly since then; fertilizer nitrogen follows a similar but less pronounced pattern. The decreases are more substantial in the Maumee watershed than in the Sandusky. Manure use for fertilizer has also declined significantly.

The Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality project: an introduction.

In the last part of the twentieth century, recognition became widespread of the important effect of agricultural runoff on the health of aquatic ecosystems in the Lake Erie basin and elsewhere. Because of the efforts to remediate Lake Erie, the "dead lake" among the Laurentian Great Lakes, a number of research and demonstration projects were undertaken in the Lake Erie basin to evaluate and foster adoption of conservation tillage and other farming techniques that would reduce runoff while maintaining productivity. In addition, intensive water quality studies of long duration were begun on major tributaries to Lake Erie during this time. The Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality (LEASEQ) project examined governmental programs, changes in agriculture, and changes in water and soil quality during the period 1975-1995, and sought to evaluate the linkages among these factors. The study area is characterized by extensive agricultural land use of soils developed from glacial materials deposited on Paleozoic sedimentary bedrock, mostly limestone. Tile drainage is extensive, particularly in slow-draining clay-rich lacustrine soils in the lower reaches of the watersheds. This paper introduces the study area, its geology, geography, soils, and agricultural history. In addition, we provide an overview of the LEASEQ concept and introduce the 11 other papers in this series, which provide a detailed exposition of the results of our studies.

Phosphorus budgets and riverine phosphorus export in northwestern Ohio watersheds.

Phosphorus (P) budgets for large watersheds are often used to predict trends in riverine P export. To test such predictions, we calculated annual P budgets for 1975-1995 for soils of the Maumee and Sandusky watersheds of northwestern Ohio and compared them with riverine P export from these watersheds. Phosphorus inputs to the soils include fertilizers, manure, rainfall, and sludge while outputs include crop removal and nonpoint-source export via rivers. Annual P inputs decreased due to reductions in fertilizer and manure inputs. Annual outputs increased due to increasing crop yields. Net P accumulation decreased from peak values of 13.4 and 9.5 kg P ha(-1) yr(-1) to 3.7 and 2.6 kg P ha(-1) yr(-1) for the Maumee and Sandusky watersheds, respectively. Thus, P budget analysis suggests that riverine P export should have increased throughout the study period, with smaller increases during more recent years. However, detailed water quality studies show that riverine export of total phosphorus (TP) has decreased by 25 to 40% and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) by 60 to 89%, both due primarily to decreases from nonpoint sources. We suggest that these decreases are associated with farmers' adoption of practices that minimize transport of recently applied P fertilizer and of sediments via surface runoff, coupled with changes in winter weather conditions. In comparison with most Midwestern watersheds, rivers draining these watersheds have high unit area yields of TP, low unit area yields of SRP, and high ratios of nonpoint source- to point source-derived P.

Trends in water quality in LEASEQ rivers and streams (northwestern Ohio), 1975-1995. Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality.

Trends in water quality in four northwest Ohio rivers over the period 1975-1995 were identified using datasets of daily concentrations containing 4500 to 6800 observations per river during the study period. Concentrations were log-transformed prior to analysis, and adjusted for flow using a locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS) fit between log(concentration) and log(flow). Seasonality was modeled using one- and two-cycle sinusoidal oscillations and monthly additive constants. Substantial decreases in total and soluble reactive phosphorus were documented at all stations. Smaller but highly significant decreases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen were documented at all stations, and significant decreases in total suspended solids were documented at three of the four stations. Nitrate did not show significant trends at the two stations draining major watersheds, and showed significant trends in opposite directions at the two stations on smaller watersheds. Comparisons using nonparametric, nonlinear trend fits (LOWESS) suggest that changes in fertilizer and manure application rates are the most important cause of trends in phosphorus and total Kjeldahl nitrogen; point sources are insufficient to account for the phosphorus trends. The conflicting trends for nitrate are enigmatic, but may reflect diverging land use in the two smaller watersheds.