Validation of eGFR for Detecting Associations Between Serum Protein Biomarkers and Subsequent GFR Decline.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: eGFR from creatinine, cystatin C, or both has been primarily used in search of biomarkers for GFR decline. Whether the relationships between biomarkers and eGFR decline are similar to associations with measured GFR (mGFR) decline has not been investigated. This study revealed that some biomarkers showed statistically significant different associations with eGFR decline compared with mGFR decline, particularly for eGFR from cystatin C. The findings indicate that non-GFR-related factors, such as age, sex, and body mass index, influence the relationship between biomarkers and eGFR decline. Therefore, the results of biomarker studies using eGFR, particularly eGFRcys, should be interpreted with caution and perhaps validated with mGFR. BACKGROUND: Several serum protein biomarkers have been proposed as risk factors for GFR decline using eGFR from creatinine or cystatin C. We investigated whether eGFR can be used as a surrogate end point for measured GFR (mGFR) when searching for biomarkers associated with GFR decline. METHODS: In the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey, GFR was measured with plasma iohexol clearance in 1627 individuals without diabetes, kidney, or cardiovascular disease at baseline. After 11 years of follow-up, 1409 participants had one or more follow-up GFR measurements. Using logistic regression and interval-censored Cox regression, we analyzed the association between baseline levels of 12 serum protein biomarkers with the risk of accelerated GFR decline and incident CKD for both mGFR and eGFR. RESULTS: Several biomarkers exhibited different associations with eGFR decline compared with their association with mGFR decline. More biomarkers showed different associations with eGFRcys decline than with eGFRcre decline. Most of the different associations of eGFR decline versus mGFR decline remained statistically significant after adjustment for age, sex, and body mass index, but several were attenuated and not significant after adjusting for the corresponding baseline mGFR or eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: In studies of some serum protein biomarkers, eGFR decline may not be an appropriate surrogate outcome for mGFR decline. Although the differences from mGFR decline are attenuated by adjustment for confounding factors in most cases, some persist. Therefore, proposed biomarkers from studies using eGFR should preferably be validated with mGFR.

Nitric Oxide Precursors and Dimethylarginines as Risk Markers for Accelerated Measured GFR Decline in the General Population.

Introduction: Nitric oxide (NO) deficiency is associated with endothelial dysfunction, hypertension, atherosclerosis, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Reduced NO bioavailability is hypothesized to play a vital role in kidney function impairment and CKD. We investigated the association of serum levels of endogenous inhibitors of NO, asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA), and precursors of NO, arginine, citrulline, and ornithine, with a decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and new-onset CKD. Methods: In a prospective cohort study of 1407 healthy, middle-aged participants of Northern European origin in the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS), GFR was measured repeatedly with iohexol clearance during a median follow-up time of 11 years. GFR decline rates were analyzed using a linear mixed model, new-onset CKD (GFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) was analyzed with interval-censored Cox regression, and accelerated GFR decline (the 10% with the steepest GFR decline) was analyzed with logistic regression. Results: Higher SDMA was associated with slower annual GFR decline. Higher levels of citrulline and ornithine were associated with accelerated GFR decline (odds ratio [OR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.76 per SD higher citrulline and OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.49 per SD higher ornithine). Higher citrulline was associated with new-onset CKD, with a hazard ratio of 1.33 (95% CI 1.07-1.66) per SD higher citrulline. Conclusions: Associations between NO precursors and the outcomes suggest that NO metabolism plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of age-related GFR decline and the development of CKD in middle-aged people.