Strategy to reduce adverse health outcomes in subjects highly vulnerable to COVID-19: results from a population-based study in Northern Italy.

OBJECTIVES: This study describes a new strategy to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the elderly and other clinically vulnerable subjects, where general practitioners (GPs) play an active role in managing high-risk patients, reducing adverse health outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Population-based study including subjects resident in the province of Milan and Lodi. PARTICIPANTS: 127 735 residents older than 70 years, with specific chronic conditions. INTERVENTIONS: We developed a predictive algorithm for overall mortality risk based on demographic and clinical characteristics. All residents older than 70 years were classified as being at low or high risk of death from COVID-19 infection according to the algorithm. The high-risk group was assigned to their GPs for telephone triage and consultation. The high-risk cohort was divided into two groups based on GP intervention: patients who were not contacted and patients who were contacted by their GPs. OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall mortality, COVID-19 morbidity and hospitalisation. RESULTS: Patients with increased risk of death from COVID-19 were 127 735; 495 669 patients were not at high risk and were not included in the intervention. Out of the high-risk subjects, 79 110 were included but not contacted by their GPs, while 48 625 high-risk subjects were included and contacted. Overall mortality, morbidity and hospitalisation was higher in high-risk patients compared with low-risk populations. High-risk patients contacted by their GPs had a 50% risk reduction in COVID-19 mortality, and a 70% risk reduction in morbidity and hospitalisation for COVID-19 compared with non-contacted patients. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that, during the COVID-19 outbreak, involvement of GPs and changes in care management of high-risk groups produced a significant reduction in all adverse health outcomes.

Association between autoimmune diseases and COVID-19 as assessed in both a test-negative case-control and population case-control design.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 epidemic has paralleled with the so called infodemic, where countless pieces of information have been disseminated on putative risk factors for COVID-19. Among those, emerged the notion that people suffering from autoimmune diseases (AIDs) have a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: The cohort included all COVID-19 cases residents in the Agency for Health Protection (AHP) of Milan that, from the beginning of the outbreak, developed a web-based platform that traced positive and negative cases as well as related contacts. AIDs subjects were defined ad having one the following autoimmune disease: rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic sclerosis, Sjogren disease, ankylosing spondylitis, myasthenia gravis, Hashimoto's disease, acquired autoimmune hemolytic anemia, and psoriatic arthritis. To investigate whether AID subjects are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and whether they have worse prognosis than AIDs-free subjects once infected, we performed a combined analysis of a test-negative design case-control study, a case-control with test-positive as cases, and one with test-negative as cases (CC-NEG). RESULTS: During the outbreak, the Milan AHP endured, up to April 27th 2020, 20,364 test-positive and 34,697 test-negative subjects. We found no association between AIDs and being positive to COVID-19, but a statistically significant association between AIDs and being negative to COVID-19 in the CC-NEG. If, as likely, test-negative subjects underwent testing because of respiratory infection symptoms, these results imply that autoimmune diseases may be a risk factor for respiratory infections in general (including COVID-19), but they are not a specific risk factor for COVID-19. Furthermore, when infected by SARS-CoV-2, AIDs subjects did not have a worse prognosis compared to non-AIDs subjects. Results highlighted a potential unbalance in the testing campaign, which may be correlated to the characteristics of the tested person, leading specific frail population to be particularly tested. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of availability of sound scientific knowledge inevitably lead unreliable news to spread over the population, preventing people to disentangle them form reliable information. Even if additional studies are needed to replicate and strengthen our results, these findings represent initial evidence to derive recommendations based on actual data for subjects with autoimmune diseases.

Describing the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in the area covered by Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020. DESIGN: descriptive study of COVID-19 cases. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI. RESULTS: a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased. Territorial differences were observed in the epidemic spread, with a higher incidence in the Lodi area. CONCLUSIONS: estimated incidence and case fatality ratios were higher than national estimates for Italy. Each ATS-MI area had different epidemic spread patterns.

Assessment of the Overall Mortality during the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Provinces of Milan and Lodi (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy).

OBJECTIVES: to describe the overall mortality increase in the provinces of Milan and Lodi - area covered by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan - during the COVID-19 epidemic in the first four months of 2020, compare it with the same time period in the years 2016-2019, and evaluate to what extent the mortality can be directly attributed to the outbreak. DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: using a new information system developed during the pandemic, we gathered data on the number of daily deaths in the population residing in the provinces of Milan and Lodi by Local Health Unit (ASST) and age groups. To describe the case fatality of COVID-19, we performed a record linkage with a database specially constructed during the epidemic to identify deaths that occurred in confirmed cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: mortality and excess mortality were analysed by comparing the number of observed deaths in the first 4 months of 2020 with the average deaths of the years 2016-2019 in the same calendar period and with expected deaths, estimated using a Poisson model. Furthermore, a measure of relative risk was calculated as observed/expected ratio with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: the increase in mortality for all causes occurring in the study population in the first 4 months of 2020 was 48.8%, 30.8% for ages between 60 and 69, 43.9% for ages between 70 and 79, and 56.7% for subjects above 80 years of age. Focusing on the epidemic period, from 1 March to 30 April, the excess is quantifiable as more than 2-fold and mainly concerns the population over 60 years of age. The excess mortality was observed in all local health units (ASSTs). The highest increments were in the province of Lodi and the North-East of Milan (ASST Nord). In the ASSTs of Lodi and Melegnano-Martesana the mortality excess was detectable from March 15th, while for the other ASSTs the increase began in the first week of April. CONCLUSIONS: evaluation of overall mortality in the provinces of Milan and Lodi during the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic showed a significant excess compared to the first 4 months of the years 2016-2019, mainly in the population over 60 years of age. However, this excess cannot be completely attributed directly to COVID-19 itself. This phenomenon was more intense in the Lodi ASST, with daily deaths up to 5 times higher than expected.