Future Climate Effects on Yield and Mortality of Conventional versus Modified Oil Palm in SE Asia.

Palm oil is a very important commodity which will be required well into the future. However, the consequences of growing oil palm (OP) are often detrimental to the environment and contribute to climate change. On the other hand, climate change stress will decrease the production of palm oil by causing mortality and ill health of OP, as well as reducing yields. Genetically modified OP (mOP) may be produced in the future to resist climate change stress, although it will take a long time to develop and introduce, if they are successfully produced at all. It is crucial to understand the benefits mOP may bring for resisting climate change and increasing the sustainability of the palm oil industry. This paper employs modeling of suitable climate for OP using the CLIMEX program in (a) Indonesia and Malaysia, which are the first and second largest growers of OP respectively, and (b) Thailand and Papua New Guinea, which are much smaller growers. It is useful to compare these countries in terms of future palm oil production and what benefits planting mOP may bring. Uniquely, narrative models are used in the current paper to determine how climate change will affect yields of conventional OP and mOP. The effect of climate change on the mortality of mOP is also determined for the first time. The gains from using mOP were moderate, but substantial, if compared to the current production of other continents or countries. This was especially the case for Indonesia and Malaysia. The development of mOP requires a realistic appreciation of what benefits may accrue.

Special Issue: Coffee, Fungi, Mycotoxins, and Climate Change.

Coffee is very lucrative and enjoyed by many [...].

Climate Refuges in Nigeria for Oil Palm in Response to Future Climate and Fusarium Wilt Stresses.

The detrimental stresses of future climate change are well known and decisions are required to reduce their effects. Climate and disease stresses cause severe damage to plants and it is essential to understand how they will respond. Oil palm (OP) is an Fusarium important crop for many countries. The palm originated in Africa, where palm oil is produced in the largest amount within the continent by Nigeria. OP becomes stressed by climate change and wilt, a devastating disease of OP in Africa. Previous methods to determine the suitability of future climate on OP in continents and whole countries were applied to Nigeria, which is the first time an individual country has been assessed in this manner. Climate maps of Nigeria were divided equally into 16 regions from north to south and east to west to determine the future suitable climate for growing OP. CLIMEX and narrative modelling were used to determine suitability for growing OP and Fusarium wilt incidence for current time and 2050. Maps from published papers were employed directly thereby facilitating the procedure. A distinct latitudinal increasing trend from north to south in suitable climate was observed, which was unexpected. A decreasing longitudinal trend from west to east was also observed. These differences in suitable climates may allow refuges for OP in the future. The growth of OP in the south of Nigeria may be largely unaffected by climate change by 2050, unlike the north. The procedures allow policy decisions at state and national levels to be made from empirical data, which do not otherwise exist. States with low amounts of OP and where the climate deteriorates greatly, could usefully be abandoned. Other low palm oil producers, where the climate does not deteriorate greatly, could be encouraged to develop OP. Little requires to be done in the high producing states where the climate does not deteriorate. In all cases, the environmental impacts require thorough assessment. Climate change requires reduction as indicated in recent Conference of the Parties meetings.

Serial use of existing clinical decisions aids can reduce computed tomography pulmonary angiography for pulmonary embolism.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) remains a diagnostic challenge in emergency medicine. Clinical decision aids (CDAs) like the Pulmonary Embolism Rule-Out Criteria (PERC) are sensitive but poorly specific; serial CDA use may improve specificity. The goal of this before-and-after study was to determine if serial use of existing CDAs in a novel diagnostic algorithm safely decreases the use of CT pulmonary angiograms (CTPA). This was a retrospective before-and-after study conducted at an urban ED with 105,000 annual visits. Our algorithm uses PERC, Wells' score, and D-dimer in series, before moving to CTPA. The algorithm was introduced in January, 2017. Use of CDAs and D-dimer in the 24 months pre- and 12 months post-intervention were obtained by chart review. The algorithm's effect on CTPA ordering was assessed by comparing volume 5 years pre- and 3 years post-intervention, adjusted for ED volume. Mean CTPAs per 1000 adult ED visits was 11.1 in the 5 pre-intervention years and 9.9 in the 3 post-intervention years (p < 0.0001). Use of PERC, Wells' score and D-dimer increased from 1.1%, 1.1%, and 28% to 8.8% (p = 0.0002) 8.1% (p = 0.0005), and 35% (p = 0.0066), respectively. Pre-intervention, there were six potentially missed PEs compared to three in the post-intervention period. Introduction of our serial CDA diagnostic algorithm was associated with increased use of CDAs and D-dimer and reduced CTPA rate without an apparent increase in the number of missed PEs. Prospective validation is needed to confirm these results.

Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming.

Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF) will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a) thermotolerant and (b) present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

Metacognition as evidence for explicit representation in nonhumans.

Metacognition is either direct, as when information is recalled before making a confidence judgment, or indirect, as when the probability of successful future retrieval is determined inferentially. Direct metacognition may require an explicit mental representation as its object and can only be demonstrated under specific experimental circumstances. Other forms of metacognition can be based on publicly observable stimuli rather than introspection.

The effect of folic acid on the development of stomach and other gastrointestinal cancers / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To evaluate the roles of folic acid and beta-carotene in the chemoprevention of gastric and other gastrointestinal (GI) cancers.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, a total of 216 patients with atrophic gastritis were randomly assigned to one of the four groups: (1) folate (FA, 20 mg per day plus vitamin B(12) 1 mg, intramuscularly, per month for one year, then 20 mg two times a week plus 1 mg per three months for the next year); (2) natural beta-carotene (N-betaC, 30 mg per day for first year, then 30 mg two times a week for the next); (3) synthetic beta-carotene (S-betaC, administered as in N-betaC); and (4) placebo. Follow-ups continued from 1994 to 2001.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A total of 7 new cases of gastrointestinal cancers were diagnosed with 3 stomach, 1 colon and 1 esophageal cancers occurring in the placebo group; 1 stomach cancer in both of the N-betaC and S-betaC groups, and no cancer occurring in FA group. In terms of GI cancers, there was a significant reduction in the FA group, compared with the placebo group (P = 0.04). A similar trend was observed in both N-betaC and S-betaC groups (P = 0.07 - 0.08). Taken together, the three intervention groups displayed a highly significant decrease in occurrence (P = 0.004, vs placebo), and a lower risk for GI cancers (OR = 0.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.03 - 0.51). For development of gastric cancer, any one of the three active-treated groups did not reach statistically significant reduction. The FA group showed obvious improvement of the gastric mucosal lesions with more patients displaying lesions reversed or stable atrophy and inflammation (P = 0.04), reversed intestinal metaplasia (P = 0.06) at the end of follow-up, and reversed displasia (P = 0.017) at 12 months. Two cases of false jaundice were found in beta-carotene groups with no influence on administration, and no side-effects were reported in FA group.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>This trial revealed the interventional effect of folic acid on the development of GI cancers, a similar effect of beta-carotene was also detected. Also, folic acid may be of use to treat atrophic gastritis by preventing or reversing the precancerous lesions.</p>