Normative values for carotid intima media thickness and its progression: Are they transferrable outside of their cohort of origin?

BACKGROUND: The clinical use of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) requires normal values, which may be subject to variation of geographical factors, ethnicity or measurement details. The influence of these factors has rarely been studied. The aim of this study was to determine whether normative cIMT values and their association with event risk are generalizable across populations. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of individual participant data. METHOD: From 22 general population cohorts from Europe, North America and Asia we selected subjects free of cardiovascular disease. Percentiles of cIMT and cIMT progression were assessed separately for every cohort. Cox proportional hazards models for vascular events were used to estimate hazard ratios for cIMT in each cohort. The estimates were pooled across Europe, North America and Asia, with random effects meta-analysis. The influence of geography, ethnicity and ultrasound protocols on cIMT values and on the hazard ratios was examined by meta-regression. RESULTS: Geographical factors, ethnicity and the ultrasound protocol had influence neither on the percentiles of cIMT and its progression, nor on the hazard ratios of cIMT for vascular events. Heterogeneity for percentiles of cIMT and cIMT progression was too large to create meaningful normative values. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of cIMT values is too heterogeneous to define universal or regional population reference values. CIMT values vary widely between different studies regardless of ethnicity, geographic location and ultrasound protocol. Prediction of vascular events with cIMT values was more consistent across all cohorts, ethnicities and regions.

Inflammatory markers and extent and progression of early atherosclerosis: Meta-analysis of individual-participant-data from 20 prospective studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale epidemiological evidence on the role of inflammation in early atherosclerosis, assessed by carotid ultrasound, is lacking. We aimed to quantify cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of inflammatory markers with common-carotid-artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) in the general population. METHODS: Information on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, leucocyte count and CCA-IMT was available in 20 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration involving 49,097 participants free of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Estimates of associations were calculated within each study and then combined using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Mean baseline CCA-IMT amounted to 0.74 mm (SD = 0.18) and mean CCA-IMT progression over a mean of 3.9 years to 0.011 mm/year (SD = 0.039). Cross-sectional analyses showed positive linear associations between inflammatory markers and baseline CCA-IMT. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mean differences in baseline CCA-IMT per one-SD higher inflammatory marker were: 0.0082 mm for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (p < 0.001); 0.0072 mm for fibrinogen (p < 0.001); and 0.0025 mm for leucocyte count (p = 0.033). 'Inflammatory load', defined as the number of elevated inflammatory markers (i.e. in upper two quintiles), showed a positive linear association with baseline CCA-IMT (p < 0.001). Longitudinal associations of baseline inflammatory markers and changes therein with CCA-IMT progression were null or at most weak. Participants with the highest 'inflammatory load' had a greater CCA-IMT progression (p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: Inflammation was independently associated with CCA-IMT cross-sectionally. The lack of clear associations with CCA-IMT progression may be explained by imprecision in its assessment within a limited time period. Our findings for 'inflammatory load' suggest important combined effects of the three inflammatory markers on early atherosclerosis.

Adult height, coronary heart disease and stroke: a multi-locus Mendelian randomization meta-analysis.

Background: We investigated causal effect of completed growth, measured by adult height, on coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cardiovascular traits, using instrumental variable (IV) Mendelian randomization meta-analysis. Methods: We developed an allele score based on 69 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with adult height, identified by the IBCCardioChip, and used it for IV analysis against cardiovascular risk factors and events in 21 studies and 60 028 participants. IV analysis on CHD was supplemented by summary data from 180 height-SNPs from the GIANT consortium and their corresponding CHD estimates derived from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D. Results: IV estimates from IBCCardioChip and GIANT-CARDIoGRAMplusC4D showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height reduced the odds of CHD by 10% [odds ratios 0.90; 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.78 to 1.03 and 0.85 to 0.95, respectively],which agrees with the estimate from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (hazard ratio 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91 to 0.94). IV analysis revealed no association with stroke (odds ratio 0.97; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.19). IV analysis showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height resulted in lower levels of body mass index ( P < 0.001), triglycerides ( P < 0.001), non high-density (non-HDL) cholesterol ( P < 0.001), C-reactive protein ( P = 0.042), and systolic blood pressure ( P = 0.064) and higher levels of forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity ( P < 0.001 for both). Conclusions: Taller individuals have a lower risk of CHD with potential explanations being that taller people have a better lung function and lower levels of body mass index, cholesterol and blood pressure.

Race/Ethnic Differences in the Associations of the Framingham Risk Factors with Carotid IMT and Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. METHODS: We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity. RESULTS: Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites. CONCLUSION: The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.

Carotid intima-media thickness progression and risk of vascular events in people with diabetes: results from the PROG-IMT collaboration.

OBJECTIVE: Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of subclinical organ damage and predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in the general population. It has also been associated with vascular risk in people with diabetes. However, the association of CIMT change in repeated examinations with subsequent CVD events is uncertain, and its use as a surrogate end point in clinical trials is controversial. We aimed at determining the relation of CIMT change to CVD events in people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a comprehensive meta-analysis of individual participant data, we collated data from 3,902 adults (age 33-92 years) with type 2 diabetes from 21 population-based cohorts. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) difference in mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) or in CCA-IMT progression, both calculated from two examinations on average 3.6 years apart, for each cohort, and combined the estimates with random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Average mean CCA-IMT ranged from 0.72 to 0.97 mm across cohorts in people with diabetes. The HR of CVD events was 1.22 (95% CI 1.12-1.33) per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT, after adjustment for age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Average mean CCA-IMT progression in people with diabetes ranged between -0.09 and 0.04 mm/year. The HR per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT progression was 0.99 (0.91-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: Despite reproducing the association between CIMT level and vascular risk in subjects with diabetes, we did not find an association between CIMT change and vascular risk. These results do not support the use of CIMT progression as a surrogate end point in clinical trials in people with diabetes.

Cardiovascular risk factors and cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to assess the role of well-established cardiovascular risk factors in the late-life cognitive decline of patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data from 831 participants (aged 60-75 years) attending the 4 year follow-up of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS) were used. Smoking history (pack-years), BP, HbA1c, plasma glucose and cholesterol were determined at baseline clinics (single time measurements) and/or from serial data recorded on a clinical management database from diagnosis until recruitment ('historical' data). Principal component analysis derived a factor, g, of general ability from seven cognitive tests. Linear regression models of follow-up g were adjusted for baseline g to represent 4 year cognitive change. 'Accelerated late-life cognitive decline' was defined as scoring in the lowest tertile of '4 year cognitive change' regression scores. Analyses controlled for age and sex. RESULTS: A baseline history of moderate/heavy smoking (≥ 10 pack-years) and a 1% increased historical HbA1c (equivalent to an increase by 11 mmol/mol) predicted a 64% (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14, 2.34; p = 0.007) and 21% (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.00, 1.45; p = 0.046) increased risk of accelerated cognitive decline, respectively. When treated as continuous measures, higher pack-years, historical HbA1c and historical BP emerged as significant independent predictors of 4 year decline in g (standardised ß range -0.07 to -0.14; all p ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Increased smoking and poorer glycaemic control (with relatively weaker findings for BP) during the life-course were independently associated with accelerated late-life cognitive decline. Where possible, evaluation is warranted of these risk factors as targets for intervention to reduce the burden of cognitive impairment in diabetes.

γ-Glutamyltransferase, but not markers of hepatic fibrosis, is associated with cardiovascular disease in older people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined the association of prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) with chronic liver disease in a cohort of community-based people with type 2 diabetes, in order to clarify the relationship between these two important conditions. METHODS: 1,066 participants with type 2 diabetes aged 60-75 years underwent assessment of a range of liver injury markers (non-specific injury, steatosis, steatohepatitis, fibrosis, portal hypertension). Individuals were followed up for incident cardiovascular events. RESULTS: At baseline there were 370/1,033 patients with prevalent CVD, including 317/1,033 with coronary artery disease (CAD). After a mean follow-up of 4.4 years there were 44/663 incident CVD events, including 27/663 CAD events. There were 30/82 CVD-related deaths. Risk of dying from or developing CVD was no higher in participants with steatosis than in those without (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.40, 2.00; p > 0.05). The only notable relationship was with γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) (incident CVD: adjusted HR for doubling GGT 1.24 [95% CI 0.97, 1.59] p = 0.086; incident CAD: adjusted HR 1.33 [95% CI 1.00, 1.78] p = 0.053), suggesting that in our study population, chronic liver disease may have little effect on the development of, or mortality from, CVD. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: An independent association between GGT and CVD warrants further exploration as a potentially useful addition to current cardiovascular risk prediction models in diabetes. However, overall findings failed to suggest that there is a clinical or pathophysiological association between chronic liver disease and CVD in elderly people with type 2 diabetes.

Common carotid intima-media thickness relates to cardiovascular events in adults aged <45 years.

Although atherosclerosis starts in early life, evidence on risk factors and atherosclerosis in individuals aged <45 years is scarce. Therefore, we studied the relationship between risk factors, common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), and first-time cardiovascular events in adults aged <45 years. Our study population consisted of 3067 adults aged <45 years free from symptomatic cardiovascular disease at baseline, derived from 6 cohorts that are part of the USE-IMT initiative, an individual participant data meta-analysis of general-population-based cohort studies evaluating CIMT measurements. Information on risk factors, CIMT measurements, and follow-up of the combined end point (first-time myocardial infarction or stroke) was obtained. We assessed the relationship between risk factors and CIMT and the relationship between CIMT and first-time myocardial infarction or stroke using a multivariable linear mixed-effects model and a Cox proportional-hazards model, respectively. During a follow-up of 16.3 years, 55 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. Median CIMT was 0.63 mm. Of the risk factors under study, age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol related to CIMT. Furthermore, CIMT related to first-time myocardial infarction or stroke with a hazard ratio of 1.40 per SD increase in CIMT, independent of risk factors (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.76). CIMT may be a valuable marker for cardiovascular risk in adults aged <45 years who are not yet eligible for standard cardiovascular risk screening. This is especially relevant in those with an increased, unfavorable risk factor burden.

Association between severe hypoglycemia, adverse macrovascular events, and inflammation in the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a history of severe hypoglycemia was associated with an increased risk of subsequent macrovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes and to explore possible mediation of this association by inflammation. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 1,066 adults aged 60-75 years with type 2 diabetes was evaluated prospectively. Baseline history of severe hypoglycemia and plasma levels of the inflammatory markers C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, interleukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α were recorded. Their association with incident macrovascular events after 4 years was explored. RESULTS: At baseline, 87 participants (8.2%) reported one or more episodes of severe hypoglycemia within the preceding year, and at follow-up 99 participants (9.3%) had suffered a new macrovascular event. Hypoglycemia was associated with increased odds of macrovascular events (odds ratio [OR] 2.11 [95% CI 1.06, 4.21], P = 0.035), including coronary heart events (OR 2.44 [95% CI 1.13, 5.26], P = 0.023), largely due to increased myocardial infarction (OR 4.02 [95% CI 1.54, 10.48], P = 0.004). Hypoglycemia was also associated with increased levels of inflammatory markers, including a general inflammation factor derived using principal-components analysis (P = 0.030, after adjustment for cardiometabolic risk factors). However, the significant association between hypoglycemia and macrovascular events persisted after adjustment for inflammatory markers. CONCLUSIONS: The odds of suffering a macrovascular event were higher in patients with type 2 diabetes who had a history of severe hypoglycemia. There was no evidence that a proinflammatory state had a major role in mediating this association.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and risk of cardiovascular events in older patients with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with traditional cardiovascular risk factors and incident cardiovascular events in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the prospective phase of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, 1066 men and women aged 60 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus were followed for 4 years; 112 participants had an incident cardiovascular event. At baseline, cardiovascular risk factors, pre-existing cardiovascular disease and levels of NT-proBNP were evaluated. RESULTS: Raised plasma NT-proBNP levels were associated with these classical cardiovascular risk factors: increased duration of diabetes, use of insulin, raised BMI, reduced HDL-cholesterol, reduced renal function and use of lipid-lowering and anti-hypertensive medication (all p < 0.05). In the prospective analysis, NT-proBNP was strongly associated with subsequent risk of all cardiovascular disease events (HR per one SD increase in NT-proBNP 1.39; 95% CI 1.10, 1.75), independent of cardiovascular risk factors traditionally used to predict vascular events. NT-proBNP was also independently associated with incident coronary artery disease events (1.48, 95% CI 1.10, 1.98). The addition of NT-proBNP to multivariate models improved the C-index by 0.019 for the 'hard' cardiac endpoint (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In older people with type 2 diabetes, NT-proBNP is associated with the development of coronary and cerebrovascular events, independent of a wide range of other vascular and metabolic risk factors, and may prove a useful addition to current vascular risk scores in diabetes populations.

Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (i.e., a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, -1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6-10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant.

Using non-invasive biomarkers to identify hepatic fibrosis in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is difficult to determine the different stages of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease without the use of invasive liver biopsy. In this study we investigated five non-invasive biomarkers used previously to detect hepatic fibrosis and determined the level of agreement between them in order to inform future research. METHODS: In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, a population-based cohort aged 60-74 years with type 2 diabetes, 831 participants underwent ultrasound assessment for fatty liver and had serum aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AST/ALT), aspartate to platelet ratio index (APRI), European Liver Fibrosis panel (ELF), Fibrosis-4 Score (FIB4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) measured. RESULTS: Literature based cut-offs yielded marked differences in the proportions of the cohort with probable liver fibrosis in the full cohort. Agreement between the top 5% of the distribution for each biomarker pair was poor. APRI and FIB4 had the best positive agreement at 76.4%, but agreement for all of the other serum biomarker pairs was between 18% and 34%. Agreement with LSM was poor (9-16%). CONCLUSIONS: We found poor correlation between the five biomarkers of liver fibrosis studied. Using the top 5% of each biomarker resulted in good agreement on the absence of advanced liver disease but poor agreement on the presence of advanced disease. Further work is required to validate these markers against liver biopsy and to determine their predictive value for clinical liver-related endpoints, in a range of different low and high risk population groups.

Severe hypoglycemia and cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

OBJECTIVE: People with type 2 diabetes are at increased risk of age-related cognitive decline and dementia. Hypoglycemia is a candidate risk factor, but the direction of association between episodes of severe hypoglycemia and cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes remains uncertain. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study, cognitive function was assessed in 831 adults with type 2 diabetes (aged 60-75 years) at baseline and after 4 years. Scores on seven neuropsychological tests were combined into a standardized general ability factor g. Self-reported history of severe hypoglycemia at baseline (history of hypoglycemia) and at follow-up (incident hypoglycemia) was recorded. RESULTS: A history of hypoglycemia was reported by 9.3% of subjects, and 10.2% reported incident hypoglycemia. Incident hypoglycemia was associated with poorer cognitive ability at baseline (age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio for lowest tertile of g 2.04 [95% CI 1.25-3.31], P = 0.004). Both history of hypoglycemia and incident hypoglycemia were also associated with greater cognitive decline during follow-up (mean follow-up g adjusted for age, sex, and baseline g -0.25 vs. 0.03 [P = 0.02] and -0.28 vs. 0.04 [P = 0.01], respectively), including after addition of vascular risk factors and cardiovascular and microvascular disease to the models (-0.23 vs. 0.03 [P = 0.04] and -0.21 vs. 0.05 [P = 0.03], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between cognitive impairment and hypoglycemia appeared complex, with severe hypoglycemia associated with both poorer initial cognitive ability and accelerated cognitive decline.

Genetic and environmental determinants of dimethylarginines and association with cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate determinants of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA), including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), in the DDAH1, DDAH2, and AGXT2 genes and their associations with prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Prevalent CVD was assessed in men and women aged 60-75 years with type 2 diabetes as part of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS), and the participants were prospectively followed up for 4 years for incident CVD. Dimethylarginines were measured in 783 of these subjects, and genotyping for tag SNPs in the DDAH1, DDAH2, and AGXT2 genes was performed in 935 subjects. RESULTS: Plasma ADMA levels were significantly associated with SNPs in DDAH1 (top SNP rs1554597; P = 9.0E-09), while SDMA levels were associated with SNPs in AGXT2 (top SNP rs28305; P = 1.3E-04). Significant, independent determinants of plasma ADMA were sex, L-arginine, creatinine, fasting glucose, and rs1554597 (all P < 0.05; combined R(2) = 0.213). Determinants of SDMA were age, sex, creatinine, L-arginine, diabetes duration, prevalent CVD, and rs28305 (all P < 0.05; combined R(2) = 0.425). Neither dimethylarginine was associated with incident CVD. None of the investigated SNPs were associated with overall CVD, although subgroup analysis revealed a significant association of AGXT2 rs28305 with intermittent claudication. CONCLUSIONS: Our study in a well-characterized population with type 2 diabetes does not support reported associations or causal relationship between ADMA and features of diabetes or CVD.

Clinical and subclinical macrovascular disease as predictors of cognitive decline in older patients with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

OBJECTIVE: Macrovascular disease may contribute to increased risk of accelerated cognitive decline in patients with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to determine associations of measures of macrovascular disease with cognitive change in a cognitively healthy older population with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Eight hundred thirty-one men and women (aged 60-75 years) attended two waves of the prospective Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS). At baseline, clinical and subclinical macrovascular disease was measured, including cardiovascular event history, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), ankle brachial index (ABI), and serum N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Seven neuropsychological tests were administered at baseline and after 4 years; scores were combined to a standardized general ability factor (g). Adjustment of follow-up g for baseline g assessed 4-year cognitive change. Adjustment for vocabulary (estimated premorbid ability) was used to estimate lifetime cognitive change. RESULTS: Measures of cognitive decline were significantly associated with stroke, NT-proBNP, ABI, and cIMT, but not with nonstroke vascular events. The association of stroke with increased estimated lifetime cognitive decline (standardized ß, -0.12) and of subclinical markers with actual 4-year decline (standardized ß, -0.12, 0.12, and -0.15 for NT-proBNP, ABI, and cIMT, respectively) reached the Bonferroni-adjusted level of statistical significance (P < 0.006). Results altered only slightly on adjustment for vascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke and subclinical markers of cardiac stress and generalized atherosclerosis are associated with cognitive decline in older patients with type 2 diabetes. Further investigation into the potential use of subclinical vascular disease markers in predicting cognitive decline is warranted.

Identification of the BCAR1-CFDP1-TMEM170A locus as a determinant of carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery disease risk.

BACKGROUND: Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is a widely accepted marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. To date, large-scale investigations of genetic determinants of cIMT are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS: To identify cIMT-associated genes and genetic variants, a discovery analysis using the Illumina 200K CardioMetabochip was conducted in 3430 subjects with detailed ultrasonographic determinations of cIMT from the IMPROVE (Carotid Intima Media Thickness [IMT] and IMT-Progression as Predictors of Vascular Events in a High Risk European Population) study. Segment-specific IMT measurements of common carotid, bifurcation, and internal carotid arteries, and composite IMT variables considering the whole carotid tree (IMT(mean), IMT(max), and IMT(mean-max)), were analyzed. A replication stage investigating 42 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for association with common carotid IMT was undertaken in 5 independent European cohorts (total n=11,590). A locus on chromosome 16 (lead single-nucleotide polymorphism rs4888378, intronic in CFDP1) was associated with cIMT at significance levels passing multiple testing correction at both stages (array-wide significant discovery P=6.75 × 10(-7) for IMT(max); replication P=7.24×10(-6) for common cIMT; adjustments for sex, age, and population substructure where applicable; minor allele frequency 0.43 and 0.41, respectively). The protective minor allele was associated with lower carotid plaque score in a replication cohort (P=0.04, n=2120) and lower coronary artery disease risk in 2 case-control studies of subjects with European ancestry (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.83 [0.77-0.90], P=6.53 × 10(-6), n=13 591; and 0.95 [0.92-0.98], P=1.83 × 10(-4), n=82 297, respectively). Queries of human biobank data sets revealed associations of rs4888378 with nearby gene expression in vascular tissues (n=126-138). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified rs4888378 in the BCAR1-CFDP1-TMEM170A locus as a novel genetic determinant of cIMT and coronary artery disease risk in individuals of European descent.

Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements in cardiovascular risk prediction: a meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: The evidence that measurement of the common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) improves the risk scores in prediction of the absolute risk of cardiovascular events is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether common CIMT has added value in 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes, above that of the Framingham Risk Score. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified through literature searches of databases (PubMed from 1950 to June 2012 and EMBASE from 1980 to June 2012) and expert opinion. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if participants were drawn from the general population, common CIMT was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up for first-time myocardial infarction or stroke. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual data were combined into 1 data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was performed on individuals without existing cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: We included 14 population-based cohorts contributing data for 45,828 individuals. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 4007 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. We first refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score and then extended the model with common CIMT measurements to estimate the absolute 10-year risks to develop a first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in both models. The C statistic of both models was similar (0.757; 95% CI, 0.749-0.764; and 0.759; 95% CI, 0.752-0.766). The net reclassification improvement with the addition of common CIMT was small (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%). In those at intermediate risk, the net reclassification improvement was 3.6% in all individuals (95% CI, 2.7%-4.6%) and no differences between men and women. CONCLUSION: The addition of common CIMT measurements to the Framingham Risk Score was associated with small improvement in 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke, but this improvement is unlikely to be of clinical importance.

Carotid intima-media thickness and the prediction of vascular events.

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has received interest as a predictor of cardiovascular events in recent years. Use of cIMT in a clinical setting is limited by the variability in measurement and the lack of evidence for its use in clinical risk prediction. This review examines the major studies that have assessed the relationship between cIMT and cardiovascular event risk and discusses the current role of IMT in cardiovascular risk prediction.

Carotid intima-media thickness progression to predict cardiovascular events in the general population (the PROG-IMT collaborative project): a meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is related to the risk of cardiovascular events in the general population. An association between changes in cIMT and cardiovascular risk is frequently assumed but has rarely been reported. Our aim was to test this association. METHODS: We identified general population studies that assessed cIMT at least twice and followed up participants for myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. The study teams collaborated in an individual participant data meta-analysis. Excluding individuals with previous myocardial infarction or stroke, we assessed the association between cIMT progression and the risk of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death, or a combination of these) for each study with Cox regression. The log hazard ratios (HRs) per SD difference were pooled by random effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Of 21 eligible studies, 16 with 36,984 participants were included. During a mean follow-up of 7·0 years, 1519 myocardial infarctions, 1339 strokes, and 2028 combined endpoints (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death) occurred. Yearly cIMT progression was derived from two ultrasound visits 2-7 years (median 4 years) apart. For mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, the overall HR of the combined endpoint was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00) when adjusted for age, sex, and mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness, and 0·98 (0·95-1·01) when also adjusted for vascular risk factors. Although we detected no associations with cIMT progression in sensitivity analyses, the mean cIMT of the two ultrasound scans was positively and robustly associated with cardiovascular risk (HR for the combined endpoint 1·16, 95% CI 1·10-1·22, adjusted for age, sex, mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, and vascular risk factors). In three studies including 3439 participants who had four ultrasound scans, cIMT progression did not correlate between occassions (reproducibility correlations between r=-0·06 and r=-0·02). INTERPRETATION: The association between cIMT progression assessed from two ultrasound scans and cardiovascular risk in the general population remains unproven. No conclusion can be derived for the use of cIMT progression as a surrogate in clinical trials. FUNDING: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

The impact of the research methods support structure on research capacity in rural New South Wales.

OBJECTIVE: This paper evaluates a Research Methods Support Structure (RMSS) to foster research capacity in the New England region of rural New South Wales. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design with a historical control for comparing changes in the number of research submissions and research approval rates since the RMSS inception in July 1998 until December 2004. RESULTS: Comparing the two reporting periods, the total number of research submissions increased from 58 to 197, or 9 per year to 30 per year (odds ratio [OR], 3.33; 95% CI, 1.15-9.90; chi2 = 5.06; P = 0.02); and the total number of ethics approvals increased from 33 to 145, or 5 per year to 22 per year (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.10-4.06; chi2 = 5.17; P = 0.02). Submissions were 2.11 times more likely to receive ethics approval after the inception of the RMSS, with an increase in overall approval rates from 57% to 74%. Locally based rural researchers were 4.89 times more likely to have their submitted research ultimately approved after the inception of the research methods support structure (OR, 4.89; 95% CI, 2.11-11.41; chi2 = 16.06; P < 0.001). DISCUSSION: This evaluation supports an expansion of research methods support structures to increase research capacity in rural Australia.