Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up.

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds.

Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases.

Emerging diseases can have devastating consequences for wildlife and require a rapid response. A critical first step towards developing appropriate management is identifying the etiology of the disease, which can be difficult to determine, particularly early in emergence. Gathering and synthesizing existing information about potential disease causes, by leveraging expert knowledge or relevant existing studies, provides a principled approach to quickly inform decision-making and management efforts. Additionally, updating the current state of knowledge as more information becomes available over time can reduce scientific uncertainty and lead to substantial improvement in the decision-making process and the application of management actions that incorporate and adapt to newly acquired scientific understanding. Here we present a rapid prototyping method for quantifying belief weights for competing hypotheses about the etiology of disease using a combination of formal expert elicitation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We illustrate the application of this approach for investigating the etiology of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and discuss the opportunities and challenges of this approach for addressing emergent diseases. Lastly, we detail how our work may apply to other pressing management or conservation problems that require quick responses. We found the rapid prototyping methods to be an efficient and rapid means to narrow down the number of potential hypotheses, synthesize current understanding, and help prioritize future studies and experiments. This approach is rapid by providing a snapshot assessment of the current state of knowledge. It can also be updated periodically (e.g., annually) to assess changes in belief weights over time as scientific understanding increases. Synthesis and applications: The rapid prototyping approaches demonstrated here can be used to combine knowledge from multiple experts and/or studies to help with fast decision-making needed for urgent conservation issues including emerging diseases and other management problems that require rapid responses. These approaches can also be used to adjust belief weights over time as studies and expert knowledge accumulate and can be a helpful tool for adapting management decisions.

Climate Change and Wetlands in the Southern Great Plains: How Are Managers Dealing with an Uncertain Future?

Little guidance is available to assist wetland managers in developing climate adaptation plans. To facilitate development of recommendations for adaptation strategies, it is essential to first determine if or how wetland managers are addressing these challenges. We used an online survey to solicit feedback from wetland managers and biologists in the Southern Great Plains of North America to gain information on perceptions of wetland managers regarding climate change; assess how the effects of climate change are being addressed through management; and identify barriers to implementing climate change adaptation. The majority of wetland managers (63%) agreed they are currently experiencing effects of climate change in wetlands, and most respondents (76%) reported that changes in the timing of water availability throughout the year was the most likely impact. Managers reported using a diversity of approaches in managing for changing precipitation, with management of native and invasive plant species being the two most common practices. Lack of funding and personnel were the most commonly identified factors limiting manager's response to changing precipitation patterns. In addition, >50% of managers indicated uncertainty about the effects of climate change on wetlands as a barrier to management, which may relate to limited access to peer-reviewed science. While most of the management practices reported were short-term measures and may not reflect long-term adaptation for climate change, the fact that many managers are considering climate change in their management suggests that there is considerable opportunities to continue developing capacity for climate change adaptation in the region.

An invasive prey provides long-lasting silver spoon effects for an endangered predator.

The natal environment can have long-term fitness consequences for individuals, particularly via 'silver spoon' or 'environmental matching' effects. Invasive species could alter natal effects on native species by changing species interactions, but this potential remains unknown. Using 17 years of data on 2588 individuals across the entire US breeding range of the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis), a wetland raptor that feeds entirely on Pomacea snails, we tested for silver spoon and environmental matching effects on survival and movement and whether the invasion of a non-native snail may alter outcomes. We found support for silver spoon effects, not environmental matching, on survival that operated through body condition at fledging, explained by hydrology in the natal wetland. When non-native snails were present at the natal site, kites were in better condition, individual condition was less sensitive to hydrology, and kites fledged across a wider range of hydrologic conditions, leading to higher survival that persisted for at least 10 years. Movement between wetlands was driven by the current (adult) environment, and birds born in both invaded and uninvaded wetlands preferred to occupy invaded wetlands post-fledging. These results illustrate that species invasions may profoundly impact the role of natal environments on native species.

Review and synthesis of the global literature on domestic cat impacts on wildlife.

A vast global literature documents that free-roaming domestic cats (Felis catus) have substantial negative effects on wildlife, including through predation, fear, disease and competition-related impacts that have contributed to numerous wildlife extinctions and population declines worldwide. However, no study has synthesized this literature on cat impacts on wildlife to evaluate its overarching biases and major gaps. To direct future research and conservation related to cat impacts on wildlife, we conducted a global literature review that entailed evaluation and synthesis of patterns and gaps in the literature related to the geographic context, methods and types of impacts studied. Our systematic literature search compiled 2245 publications. We extracted information from 332 of these meeting inclusion criteria designed to ensure the relevance of studies analysed. This synthesis of research on cat impacts on wildlife highlights a focus on oceanic islands, Australia, Europe, and North America, and on rural areas, predation, impacts of unowned cats, and impacts at population and species levels. Key research advances needed to better understand and manage cat impacts include more studies in underrepresented, highly biodiverse regions (Africa, Asia, and South America), on cat impacts other than predation, and on methods designed to reduce impacts on wildlife. The identified areas of needed research into cat impacts on wildlife will be critical to further clarifying the role of cats in global wildlife declines and to implementing science-driven policy and management that benefit conservation efforts.

Fire management alters the thermal landscape and provides multi-scale thermal options for a terrestrial turtle facing a changing climate.

As effects of climate change intensify, there is a growing need to understand the thermal properties of landscapes and their influence on wildlife. A key thermal property of landscapes is vegetation structure and composition. Management approaches can alter vegetation and consequently the thermal landscape, potentially resulting in underappreciated consequences for wildlife thermoregulation. Consideration of spatial scale can clarify how management overlaid onto existing vegetation patterns affects thermal properties of landscapes relevant to wildlife. We examined effects of temperature, fire management, and vegetation structure on multi-scale habitat selection of an ectothermic vertebrate (the turtle Terrapene carolina triunguis) in the Great Plains of the central United States by linking time-since-fire data from 18 experimental burn plots to turtle telemetry locations and thermal and vegetation height data. Within three 60-ha experimental landscapes, each containing six 10-ha sub-blocks that are periodically burned, we found that turtles select time-since-fire gradients differently depending on maximum daily ambient temperature. At moderate temperatures, turtles selected sub-blocks with recent (<1 year) time-since-fire, but during relatively hot and cool conditions, they selected sub-blocks with later (2-3 year) time-since-fire that provided thermal buffering compared with recently burned sub-blocks. Within 10-ha sub-blocks, turtles selected locations with taller vegetation during warmer conditions that provided thermal buffering. Thermal performance curves revealed that turtle activity declined as temperatures exceeded ~24-29°C, and on "heat days" (≥29°C) 73% of turtles were inactive compared with 37% on non-heat days, emphasizing that thermal extremes may lead to opportunity costs (i.e., foregone benefits turtles could otherwise accrue if active). Our results indicate that management approaches that promote a mosaic of vegetation heights, like spatiotemporally dynamic fire, can provide thermal refuges at multiple spatial scales and thus be an actionable way to provide wildlife with multiple thermal options in the context of ongoing and future climate change.

Urbanization and Population Genetic Structure of the Panama City crayfish (Procambarus econfinae).

For species with geographically restricted distributions, the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on long-term persistence may be particularly pronounced. We examined the genetic structure of Panama City crayfish (PCC), Procambarus econfinae, whose historical distribution is limited to an area approximately 145 km2, largely within the limits of Panama City and eastern Bay County, FL. Currently, PCC occupy approximately 28% of its historical range, with suitable habitat composed of fragmented patches in the highly urbanized western portion of the range and managed plantations in the more contiguous eastern portion of the range. We used 1640 anonymous single-nucleotide polymorphisms to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic habitat modification on the genetic diversity and population structure of 161 PCC sampled from across its known distribution. First, we examined urban habitat patches in the west compared with less-developed habitat patches in the east. Second, we used approximate Bayesian computation to model inferences on the demographic history of eastern and western populations. We found anthropogenic habitat modifications explain the genetic structure of PCC range-wide. Clustering analyses revealed significant genetic structure between and within eastern and western regions. Estimates of divergence between east and west were consistent with urban growth in the mid-20th century. PCC have low genetic diversity and high levels of inbreeding and relatedness, indicating populations are small and isolated. Our results suggest that PCC have been strongly affected by habitat loss and fragmentation and management strategies, including legal protection, translocations, or reintroductions, may be necessary to ensure long-term persistence.

The number of breeders explains genetic connectivity in an endangered bird.

Connectivity is central to ecology and evolution as it focuses on the movement of individuals or genes across landscapes. Genetic connectivity approaches aim to understand gene flow but often estimate it indirectly based on metrics of genetic differentiation, which can also be affected by other evolutionary forces such as genetic drift. Gene flow and genetic drift are driven by separate ecological mechanisms with potentially differing effects on genetic differentiation and interpretations of genetic connectivity. The ecological mechanisms contributing to gene flow and genetic drift are primarily effective dispersal, or movement followed by successful reproduction, and the number of breeders in a local population, Nb , respectively. Yet, rarely are these ecological mechanisms and genetic connectivity measured simultaneously across landscapes. We examine the roles of effective dispersal and Nb on genetic connectivity across the entire range of the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus), between 2006-2015. We find that both Nb and effective dispersal are important predictors of genetic connectivity across this landscape, but that Nb has a 3 × stronger effect on genetic connectivity. Furthermore, Nb is positively correlated with heterozygosity and allelic richness within patches, suggesting a potentially important role of genetic drift, in addition to gene flow, on genetic connectivity. These results emphasize that conservation efforts should focus on not only between-patch processes of movement but also within-patch processes regarding habitat quality and local population size for increasing genetic connectivity.

A practical guide for combining data to model species distributions.

Understanding and accurately modeling species distributions lies at the heart of many problems in ecology, evolution, and conservation. Multiple sources of data are increasingly available for modeling species distributions, such as data from citizen science programs, atlases, museums, and planned surveys. Yet reliably combining data sources can be challenging because data sources can vary considerably in their design, gradients covered, and potential sampling biases. We review, synthesize, and illustrate recent developments in combining multiple sources of data for species distribution modeling. We identify five ways in which multiple sources of data are typically combined for modeling species distributions. These approaches vary in their ability to accommodate sampling design, bias, and uncertainty when quantifying environmental relationships in species distribution models. Many of the challenges for combining data are solved through the prudent use of integrated species distribution models: models that simultaneously combine different data sources on species locations to quantify environmental relationships for explaining species distribution. We illustrate these approaches using planned survey data on 24 species of birds coupled with opportunistically collected eBird data in the southeastern United States. This example illustrates some of the benefits of data integration, such as increased precision in environmental relationships, greater predictive accuracy, and accounting for sample bias. Yet it also illustrates challenges of combining data sources with vastly different sampling methodologies and amounts of data. We provide one solution to this challenge through the use of weighted joint likelihoods. Weighted joint likelihoods provide a means to emphasize data sources based on different criteria (e.g., sample size), and we find that weighting improves predictions for all species considered. We conclude by providing practical guidance on combining multiple sources of data for modeling species distributions.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird.

Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark-resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.

The causes of dispersal and the cost of carry-over effects for an endangered bird in a dynamic wetland landscape.

The decision to disperse or remain philopatric between breeding seasons has important implications for both ecology and evolution, including the potential for carry-over effects, where an individual's previous history affects its current performance. Carry-over effects are increasingly documented although underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we test for potential carry-over effects and their mechanisms by uniting hypotheses for the causes and consequences of habitat selection and dispersal across space and time. We linked hypotheses regarding different types of factors and information (environmental conditions, personal and public information) predicted to impact reproductive success and dispersal for an endangered, wetland-dependent bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we coupled structural equation modelling with 20 years of mark-recapture and nesting data across the breeding range of this species to isolate potential direct and indirect effects of these factors. We found that water depth at nest sites explained subsequent emigration rates via an indirect path through the use of personal, not public, information. Importantly, we found that these dispersers tended to initiate nests later the following breeding season. This pattern explained a phenological mismatch of nesting with hydrological conditions, whereby immigrants tended to nest later, late nesters tended to experience lower water depths, higher nest failure occurred at lower water depths and higher nest failure explained subsequent breeding dispersal. These results identified a novel potential mechanism for carry-over effects: a phenological mismatch with environmental conditions (water depth) that occurred potentially due to time costs of dispersal. Our results also highlighted a substantial benefit of philopatry - earlier initiation of reproduction - which allows philopatric individuals to better coincide with environmental conditions that are beneficial for successful reproduction. These results have implications for our mechanistic understanding and prediction of carryover effects, and emphasize that local conservation strategies, such as water management, can explain future demography at distant sites connected through dispersal.

Individual Movement Strategies Revealed through Novel Clustering of Emergent Movement Patterns.

Understanding movement is critical in several disciplines but analysis methods often neglect key information by adopting each location as sampling unit, rather than each individual. We introduce a novel statistical method that, by focusing on individuals, enables better identification of temporal dynamics of connectivity, traits of individuals that explain emergent movement patterns, and sites that play a critical role in connecting subpopulations. We apply this method to two examples that span movement networks that vary considerably in size and questions: movements of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus), and human movement in Florida inferred from Twitter. For snail kites, our method reveals substantial differences in movement strategies for different bird cohorts and temporal changes in connectivity driven by the invasion of an exotic food resource, illustrating the challenge of identifying critical connectivity sites for conservation in the presence of global change. For human movement, our method is able to reliably determine the origin of Florida visitors and identify distinct movement patterns within Florida for visitors from different places, providing near real-time information on the spatial and temporal patterns of tourists. These results emphasize the need to integrate individual variation to generate new insights when modeling movement data.

Affinity for natal environments by dispersers impacts reproduction and explains geographical structure of a highly mobile bird.

Understanding dispersal and habitat selection behaviours is central to many problems in ecology, evolution and conservation. One factor often hypothesized to influence habitat selection by dispersers is the natal environment experienced by juveniles. Nonetheless, evidence for the effect of natal environment on dispersing, wild vertebrates remains limited. Using 18 years of nesting and mark-resight data across an entire North American geographical range of an endangered bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis), we tested for natal effects on breeding-site selection by dispersers and its consequences for reproductive success and population structure. Dispersing snail kites were more likely to nest in wetlands of the same habitat type (lacustrine or palustrine) as their natal wetland, independent of dispersal distance, but this preference declined with age and if individuals were born during droughts. Importantly, dispersing kites that bred in natal-like habitats had lower nest success and productivity than kites that did not. These behaviours help explain recently described population connectivity and spatial structure across their geographical range and reveal that assortative breeding is occurring, where birds are more likely to breed with individuals born in the same wetland type as their natal habitat. Natal environments can thus have long-term and large-scale effects on populations in nature, even in highly mobile animals.

The matrix alters the role of path redundancy on patch colonization rates.

Landscape connectivity is central to many problems in ecology and conservation. Recently, the role of path redundancies on movement of organisms has been emphasized for understanding connectivity, because increasing the number of potential paths (i.e., redundancy) is predicted to increase movement rates, which can alter predictions for foraging theory and population dynamics. Nonetheless, experiments that test for the effects of path redundancies on connectivity remain scarce. We tested for the role of path redundancies on the movements of a habitat specialist, Chelinidea vittiger, using experimental arenas that altered path redundancy by varying the amount and configuration of stepping stones across a gradient of matrix resistance. We found that stepping-stone redundancies increased colonization rates to target patches, but the effects differed depending on the configuration of redundancy and the structure of the matrix. In addition, matrix effects were better explained through the use of effective distance measures that incorporate redundancy in the matrix than those that ignore redundancy. Our results provide experimental evidence that measures that ignore redundancies may be inadequate for capturing functional connectivity, illustrate the ways in which redundancies alter colonization rates, and emphasize how habitat configuration and matrix structure can interact to guide movement of individuals across landscapes.