System identifiability in a time-evolving agent-based model.

Mathematical models are a valuable tool for studying and predicting the spread of infectious agents. The accuracy of model simulations and predictions invariably depends on the specification of model parameters. Estimation of these parameters is therefore extremely important; however, while some parameters can be derived from observational studies, the values of others are difficult to measure. Instead, models can be coupled with inference algorithms (i.e., data assimilation methods, or statistical filters), which fit model simulations to existing observations and estimate unobserved model state variables and parameters. Ideally, these inference algorithms should find the best fitting solution for a given model and set of observations; however, as those estimated quantities are unobserved, it is typically uncertain whether the correct parameters have been identified. Further, it is unclear what 'correct' really means for abstract parameters defined based on specific model forms. In this work, we explored the problem of non-identifiability in a stochastic system which, when overlooked, can significantly impede model prediction. We used a network, agent-based model to simulate the transmission of Methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) within hospital settings and attempted to infer key model parameters using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter, an efficient Bayesian inference algorithm. We show that even though the inference method converged and that simulations using the estimated parameters produced an agreement with observations, the true parameters are not fully identifiable. While the model-inference system can exclude a substantial area of parameter space that is unlikely to contain the true parameters, the estimated parameter range still included multiple parameter combinations that can fit observations equally well. We show that analyzing synthetic trajectories can support or contradict claims of identifiability. While we perform this on a specific model system, this approach can be generalized for a variety of stochastic representations of partially observable systems. We also suggest data manipulations intended to improve identifiability that might be applicable in many systems of interest.

Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance.

Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health. Since the 2000s, computational tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to develop real-time forecasting models for antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) have been absent. In this perspective, we discuss the utility of AMRO forecasting at different scales, highlight the challenges in this field, and suggest future research priorities. We also discuss challenges in scientific understanding, access to high-quality data, model calibration, and implementation and evaluation of forecasting models. We further highlight the need to initiate research on AMRO forecasting using currently available data and resources to galvanize the research community and address initial practical questions.

Random search with resetting as a strategy for optimal pollination.

The problem of pollination is unique among a wide scope of search problems, since it requires optimization of benefits for both the searcher (pollinator) and its targets (plants). To address this challenge, we propose a pollination model which is based on a framework of first passage under stochastic restart. We derive equations for the search time and number of visited plants as functions of the distribution of nectar in the plant population and of the probability that a pollinator will leave the plant after examining a flower, thus effectively restarting the search. We demonstrate that nectar variation in plants serves as a driving force for pollination and establish conditions required for optimal pollination, which provides an efficient pollinator search strategy and the maximum number of plants visited by the pollinator.

Single-molecule theory of enzymatic inhibition.

The classical theory of enzymatic inhibition takes a deterministic, bulk based approach to quantitatively describe how inhibitors affect the progression of enzymatic reactions. Catalysis at the single-enzyme level is, however, inherently stochastic which could lead to strong deviations from classical predictions. To explore this, we take the single-enzyme perspective and rebuild the theory of enzymatic inhibition from the bottom up. We find that accounting for multi-conformational enzyme structure and intrinsic randomness should strongly change our view on the uncompetitive and mixed modes of inhibition. There, stochastic fluctuations at the single-enzyme level could make inhibitors act as activators; and we state-in terms of experimentally measurable quantities-a mathematical condition for the emergence of this surprising phenomenon. Our findings could explain why certain molecules that inhibit enzymatic activity when substrate concentrations are high, elicit a non-monotonic dose response when substrate concentrations are low.