Analyzing the GHSI puzzle of whether highly developed countries fared worse in COVID-19.

Global Health Security Index (GHSI) categories are formulated to assess the capacity of world countries to deal with infectious disease risks. Thus, higher values of these indices were expected to translate to lower COVID-19 severity. However, it turned out to be the opposite, surprisingly suggesting that higher estimated country preparedness to epidemics may lead to higher disease mortality. To address this puzzle, we: (i) use a model-derived measure of COVID-19 severity; (ii) employ a range of statistical learning approaches, including non-parametric machine learning methods; (iii) consider the overall excess mortality, in addition to official COVID-19 fatality counts. Our results suggest that the puzzle is, to a large extent, an artifact of oversimplified data analysis and a consequence of misclassified COVID-19 deaths, combined with the higher median age of the population and earlier epidemics onset in countries with high GHSI scores.

COVID-19 severity determinants inferred through ecological and epidemiological modeling.

Understanding variations in the severity of infectious diseases is essential for planning proper mitigation strategies. Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also lead to more deaths. Instead, we use epidemiological modeling to propose a disease severity measure that accounts for the underlying disease dynamics. The measure corresponds to the ratio of population-averaged mortality and recovery rates (m/r), is independent of the disease transmission dynamics (i.e., the basic reproduction number), and has a direct mechanistic interpretation. We use this measure to assess demographic, medical, meteorological, and environmental factors associated with the disease severity. For this, we employ an ecological regression study design and analyze different US states during the first disease outbreak. Principal Component Analysis, followed by univariate, and multivariate analyses based on machine learning techniques, is used for selecting important predictors. The usefulness of the introduced severity measure and the validity of the approach are confirmed by the fact that, without using prior knowledge from clinical studies, we recover the main significant predictors known to influence disease severity, in particular age, chronic diseases, and racial factors. Additionally, we identify long-term pollution exposure and population density as not widely recognized (though for the pollution previously hypothesized) significant predictors. The proposed measure is applicable for inferring severity determinants not only of COVID-19 but also of other infectious diseases, and the obtained results may aid a better understanding of the present and future epidemics. Our holistic, systematic investigation of disease severity at the human-environment intersection by epidemiological dynamical modeling and machine learning ecological regressions is aligned with the One Health approach. The obtained results emphasize a syndemic nature of COVID-19 risks.

Inferring the Main Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 Global Transmissibility by Feature Selection Methods.

Identifying the main environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the population is crucial for understanding current and potential future outbursts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. To address this problem, we concentrate on the basic reproduction number R 0, which is not sensitive to testing coverage and represents transmissibility in an absence of social distancing and in a completely susceptible population. While many variables may potentially influence R 0, a high correlation between these variables may obscure the result interpretation. Consequently, we combine Principal Component Analysis with feature selection methods from several regression-based approaches to identify the main demographic and meteorological drivers behind R 0. We robustly obtain that country's wealth/development (GDP per capita or Human Development Index) is the most important R 0 predictor at the global level, probably being a good proxy for the overall contact frequency in a population. This main effect is modulated by built-up area per capita (crowdedness in indoor space), onset of infection (likely related to increased awareness of infection risks), net migration, unhealthy living lifestyle/conditions including pollution, seasonality, and possibly BCG vaccination prevalence. Also, we argue that several variables that significantly correlate with transmissibility do not directly influence R 0 or affect it differently than suggested by naïve analysis.

A systems biology approach to COVID-19 progression in population.

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to include these in a manner that can explain the data but avoid overfitting in parameter inference. We here develop a simple time-dependent model, where social distancing effects are introduced analogous to coarse-grained models of gene expression control in systems biology. We apply our approach to understand drastic differences in COVID-19 infection and fatality counts, observed between Hubei (Wuhan) and other Mainland China provinces. We find that these unintuitive data may be explained through an interplay of differences in transmissibility, effective protection, and detection efficiencies between Hubei and other provinces. More generally, our results demonstrate that regional differences may drastically shape infection outbursts. The obtained results demonstrate the applicability of our developed method to extract key infection parameters directly from publically available data so that it can be globally applied to outbreaks of COVID-19 in a number of countries. Overall, we show that applications of uncommon strategies, such as methods and approaches from molecular systems biology research to mathematical epidemiology, may significantly advance our understanding of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

PM2.5 as a major predictor of COVID-19 basic reproduction number in the USA.

Many studies have proposed a relationship between COVID-19 transmissibility and ambient pollution levels. However, a major limitation in establishing such associations is to adequately account for complex disease dynamics, influenced by e.g. significant differences in control measures and testing policies. Another difficulty is appropriately controlling the effects of other potentially important factors, due to both their mutual correlations and a limited dataset. To overcome these difficulties, we will here use the basic reproduction number (R0) that we estimate for USA states using non-linear dynamics methods. To account for a large number of predictors (many of which are mutually strongly correlated), combined with a limited dataset, we employ machine-learning methods. Specifically, to reduce dimensionality without complicating the variable interpretation, we employ Principal Component Analysis on subsets of mutually related (and correlated) predictors. Methods that allow feature (predictor) selection, and ranking their importance, are then used, including both linear regressions with regularization and feature selection (Lasso and Elastic Net) and non-parametric methods based on ensembles of weak-learners (Random Forest and Gradient Boost). Through these substantially different approaches, we robustly obtain that PM2.5 is a major predictor of R0 in USA states, with corrections from factors such as other pollutants, prosperity measures, population density, chronic disease levels, and possibly racial composition. As a rough magnitude estimate, we obtain that a relative change in R0, with variations in pollution levels observed in the USA, is typically ~30%, which further underscores the importance of pollution in COVID-19 transmissibility.

From biophysics to 'omics and systems biology.

Recent decades brought a revolution to biology, driven mainly by exponentially increasing amounts of data coming from "'omics" sciences. To handle these data, bioinformatics often has to combine biologically heterogeneous signals, for which methods from statistics and engineering (e.g. machine learning) are often used. While such an approach is sometimes necessary, it effectively treats the underlying biological processes as a black box. Similarly, systems biology deals with inherently complex systems, characterized by a large number of degrees of freedom, and interactions that are highly non-linear. To deal with this complexity, the underlying physical interactions are often (over)simplified, such as in Boolean modelling of network dynamics. In this review, we argue for the utility of applying a biophysical approach in bioinformatics and systems biology, including discussion of two examples from our research which address sequence analysis and understanding intracellular gene expression dynamics.

Effects of Population Dynamics on Establishment of a Restriction-Modification System in a Bacterial Host.

In vivo dynamics of protein levels in bacterial cells depend on both intracellular regulation and relevant population dynamics. Such population dynamics effects, e.g., interplay between cell and plasmid division rates, are, however, often neglected in modeling gene expression regulation. Including them in a model introduces additional parameters shared by the dynamical equations, which can significantly increase dimensionality of the parameter inference. We here analyse the importance of these effects, on a case of bacterial restriction-modification (R-M) system. We redevelop our earlier minimal model of this system gene expression regulation, based on a thermodynamic and dynamic system modeling framework, to include the population dynamics effects. To resolve the problem of effective coupling of the dynamical equations, we propose a "mean-field-like" procedure, which allows determining only part of the parameters at a time, by separately fitting them to expression dynamics data of individual molecular species. We show that including the interplay between kinetics of cell division and plasmid replication is necessary to explain the experimental measurements. Moreover, neglecting population dynamics effects can lead to falsely identifying non-existent regulatory mechanisms. Our results call for advanced methods to reverse-engineer intracellular regulation from dynamical data, which would also take into account the population dynamics effects.

Controller protein of restriction-modification system Kpn2I affects transcription of its gene by acting as a transcription elongation roadblock.

C-proteins control restriction-modification (R-M) systems' genes transcription to ensure sufficient levels of restriction endonuclease to allow protection from foreign DNA while avoiding its modification by excess methyltransferase. Here, we characterize transcription regulation in C-protein dependent R-M system Kpn2I. The Kpn2I restriction endonuclease gene is transcribed from a constitutive, weak promoter, which, atypically, is C-protein independent. Kpn2I C-protein (C.Kpn2I) binds upstream of the strong methyltransferase gene promoter and inhibits it, likely by preventing the interaction of the RNA polymerase sigma subunit with the -35 consensus element. Diminished transcription from the methyltransferase promoter increases transcription from overlapping divergent C-protein gene promoters. All known C-proteins affect transcription initiation from R-M genes promoters. Uniquely, the C.Kpn2I binding site is located within the coding region of its gene. C.Kpn2I acts as a roadblock stalling elongating RNA polymerase and decreasing production of full-length C.Kpn2I mRNA. Mathematical modeling shows that this unusual mode of regulation leads to the same dynamics of accumulation of R-M gene transcripts as observed in systems where C-proteins act at transcription initiation stage only. Bioinformatics analyses suggest that transcription regulation through binding of C.Kpn2I-like proteins within the coding regions of their genes may be widespread.

Features of CRISPR-Cas Regulation Key to Highly Efficient and Temporally-Specific crRNA Production.

Bacterial immune systems, such as CRISPR-Cas or restriction-modification (R-M) systems, affect bacterial pathogenicity and antibiotic resistance by modulating horizontal gene flow. A model system for CRISPR-Cas regulation, the Type I-E system from Escherichia coli, is silent under standard laboratory conditions and experimentally observing the dynamics of CRISPR-Cas activation is challenging. Two characteristic features of CRISPR-Cas regulation in E. coli are cooperative transcription repression of cas gene and CRISPR array promoters, and fast non-specific degradation of full length CRISPR transcripts (pre-crRNA). In this work, we use computational modeling to understand how these features affect the system expression dynamics. Signaling which leads to CRISPR-Cas activation is currently unknown, so to bypass this step, we here propose a conceptual setup for cas expression activation, where cas genes are put under transcription control typical for a restriction-modification (R-M) system and then introduced into a cell. Known transcription regulation of an R-M system is used as a proxy for currently unknown CRISPR-Cas transcription control, as both systems are characterized by high cooperativity, which is likely related to similar dynamical constraints of their function. We find that the two characteristic CRISPR-Cas control features are responsible for its temporally-specific dynamical response, so that the system makes a steep (switch-like) transition from OFF to ON state with a time-delay controlled by pre-crRNA degradation rate. We furthermore find that cooperative transcription regulation qualitatively leads to a cross-over to a regime where, at higher pre-crRNA processing rates, crRNA generation approaches the limit of an infinitely abrupt system induction. We propose that these dynamical properties are associated with rapid expression of CRISPR-Cas components and efficient protection of bacterial cells against foreign DNA. In terms of synthetic applications, the setup proposed here should allow highly efficient expression of small RNAs in a narrow time interval, with a specified time-delay with respect to the signal onset.

Understanding key features of bacterial restriction-modification systems through quantitative modeling.

BACKGROUND: Restriction-modification (R-M) systems are rudimentary bacterial immune systems. The main components include restriction enzyme (R), which cuts specific unmethylated DNA sequences, and the methyltransferase (M), which protects the same DNA sequences. The expression of R-M system components is considered to be tightly regulated, to ensure successful establishment in a naïve bacterial host. R-M systems are organized in different architectures (convergent or divergent) and are characterized by different features, i.e. binding cooperativities, dissociation constants of dimerization, translation rates, which ensure this tight regulation. It has been proposed that R-M systems should exhibit certain dynamical properties during the system establishment, such as: i) a delayed expression of R with respect to M, ii) fast transition of R from "OFF" to "ON" state, iii) increased stability of the toxic molecule (R) steady-state levels. It is however unclear how different R-M system features and architectures ensure these dynamical properties, particularly since it is hard to address this question experimentally. RESULTS: To understand design of different R-M systems, we computationally analyze two R-M systems, representative of the subset controlled by small regulators called 'C proteins', and differing in having convergent or divergent promoter architecture. We show that, in the convergent system, abolishing any of the characteristic system features adversely affects the dynamical properties outlined above. Moreover, an extreme binding cooperativity, accompanied by a very high dissociation constant of dimerization, observed in the convergent system, but absent from other R-M systems, can be explained in terms of the same properties. Furthermore, we develop the first theoretical model for dynamics of a divergent R-M system, which does not share any of the convergent system features, but has overlapping promoters. We show that i) the system dynamics exhibits the same three dynamical properties, ii) introducing any of the convergent system features to the divergent system actually diminishes these properties. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that different R-M architectures and features may be understood in terms of constraints imposed by few simple dynamical properties of the system, providing a unifying framework for understanding these seemingly diverse systems. We also provided predictions for the perturbed R-M systems dynamics, which may in future be tested through increasingly available experimental techniques, such as re-engineering R-M systems and single-cell experiments.

Temporal dynamics of methyltransferase and restriction endonuclease accumulation in individual cells after introducing a restriction-modification system.

Type II restriction-modification (R-M) systems encode a restriction endonuclease that cleaves DNA at specific sites, and a methyltransferase that modifies same sites protecting them from restriction endonuclease cleavage. Type II R-M systems benefit bacteria by protecting them from bacteriophages. Many type II R-M systems are plasmid-based and thus capable of horizontal transfer. Upon the entry of such plasmids into a naïve host with unmodified genomic recognition sites, methyltransferase should be synthesized first and given sufficient time to methylate recognition sites in the bacterial genome before the toxic restriction endonuclease activity appears. Here, we directly demonstrate a delay in restriction endonuclease synthesis after transformation of Escherichia coli cells with a plasmid carrying the Esp1396I type II R-M system, using single-cell microscopy. We further demonstrate that before the appearance of the Esp1396I restriction endonuclease the intracellular concentration of Esp1396I methyltransferase undergoes a sharp peak, which should allow rapid methylation of host genome recognition sites. A mathematical model that satisfactorily describes the observed dynamics of both Esp1396I enzymes is presented. The results reported here were obtained using a functional Esp1396I type II R-M system encoding both enzymes fused to fluorescent proteins. Similar approaches should be applicable to the studies of other R-M systems at single-cell level.