Mathematical law of cardiac dynamic systems: reduction of its evaluation time to 18 hours / [Ley matemática de los sistemas dinámicos cardiacos: reducción de su tiempo de evaluación a 18 horas]

Introduction: Previously, a physical-mathematical law was developed for the evaluation of continuous electrocardiographic and Holter registers, with which all cardiac attractors were deduced and normality, pathological states and evolution between states were differentiated.There were taken 200 cardiac dynamics, 150 with different types of cardiac pathologies and 50 normal ones, to which the exponential law was applied in 18 and 21 hours. For this, a sequence of heart rates was simulated, with which the chaotic attractor was constructed. Next, the mathematical diagnosis was determined with the law based on the spatial occupation of the attractor, and the fractal dimension was calculated. Finally, statistical validation of the mathematical method in 18 hours was performed against the Gold Standard. Results: Subjects with normal chaotic cardiac dynamics presented values in the Kp grid between 205 and 384, whereas subjects with pathological dynamics presented values between 61 and 191 in 18 hours. The evaluation of the concordance between the mathematical diagnosis in 18 hours and the conventional evaluation, taken as Gold Standard resulted in sensitivity and specificity values of 100% and a Kappa coefficient of 1. Conclusion: It was confirmed the clinical capacity of the law to diagnose objectively and with reproducibility in 18 hours.

Diagnostic methodology of cardiac dynamics based on the Zipf-Mandelbrot law: evaluation with 50 patients / Metodología diagnóstica de la dinámica cardiaca basada en ley de Zipf-Mandelbrot: evaluación con 50 pacientes

Abstract: Objective: Zipf-Mandelbrot law has been used to assess the complexity of cardiac systems. The objective of this work is to corroborate the clinical applicability of a diagnostic methodology developed from Zipf-Mandelbrot law, in the differentiation of normality and acute cardiac disease. Material and methods: there were taken 50 continuous electrocardiographic Holter monitoring records, 20 normal and 30 with acute alterations of the cardiac dynamics. The frequencies of occurrence of heart rates in ranges of 15 lat/min were organized hierarchically to demonstrate the hyperbolic behavior of dynamics and to apply the Zipf-Mandelbrot law. A linearization was performed and the statistical fractal dimension of each dynamic was obtained, giving rise to the mathematical diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity and Kappa coefficient were calculated. Results: The values of the statistical fractal dimension of the acute cardiac dynamics were between 0.7123 and 0.9327, whereas for the normal dynamics were found between 0.4253 and 0.6698, evidencing quantitative differences between states of normality and disease. Sensitivity and specificity values of 100% were found and the kappa coefficient was 1. Conclusions: The clinical and diagnostic utility of the mathematical methodology based on Zipf-Mandelbrot law was verified, observing a decrease of dynamics complexity in cases of acute heart disease.(AU)

Resumen: Objetivo: La ley de Zipf-Mandelbrot ha sido utilizada con el fin de evaluar la complejidad de los sistemas cardiacos. El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la aplicabilidad clínica de una metodología diagnóstica desarrollada a partir de la ley de Zipf-Mandelbrot, en la diferenciación de normalidad y enfermedad cardiaca aguda. Material y métodos: Se tomaron 50 Holter cardiacos (monitoreo electrocardiográfico continuo ambulatorio), 20 normales y 30 con alteraciones agudas de la dinámica cardiaca. Se organizaron jerárquicamente las frecuencias de aparición de frecuencias cardiacas en rangos de a 15 lat/min, para evidenciar el comportamiento hiperbólico de las dinámicas y aplicar la ley de Zipf-Mandelbrot. Se realizó una linealización y se obtuvo la dimensión fractal estadística de cada dinámica, dando lugar al diagnóstico matemático. Fueron calculadas la sensibilidad, especificidad y el coeficiente Kappa. Resultados: Los valores de la dimensión fractal estadística de las dinámicas cardiacas agudas se encontraron entre 0.7123 y 0.9327, mientras que para las dinámicas normales se hallaron entre 0.4253 y 0.6698, evidenciando diferencias cuantitativas entre estados de normalidad y enfermedad. Se encontraron valores de sensibilidad y especificidad del 100% y el coeficiente kappa fue de 1. Conclusiones: Fue comprobada la utilidad clínica y diagnóstica de la metodología matemática basada en la ley de Zipf-Mandelbrot, observando un decremento de la complejidad de la dinámica en casos de enfermedad cardiaca aguda.(AU)

Análisis probabilista con caminata al azar del número de personas viviendo con VIH mundialmente / A Probabilistic analysis with random walks of the number of people living with HIV worldwide / Análise probabilística com caminhada aleatória do número de pessoas vivendo com HIV mundialmente

Resumen El estudio de la dinámica anual de la epidemia de VIH a partir de la caminata al azar ha mostrado ser de utilidad para llevar este fenómeno altamente variable a un comportamiento predecible, desde una mirada acausal. Objetivo: predecir el comportamiento de la dinámica del número de personas viviendo con VIH mediante la caminata al azar probabilista. Metodología: Se analizaron los valores anuales de personas que a nivel global viven con VIH desde el año 1990 hasta el 2009, a partir de los espacios de probabilidad generados del estudio de esta dinámica con la caminata al azar probabilista, para posteriormente desarrollar la predicción del valor anual de personas viviendo con VIH para los años 2010, 2011 y 2012. Resultados: Basados en el comportamiento de caminata al azar probabilista que exhibió el fenómeno, se predijeron los valores anuales de personas viviendo con VIH con un porcentaje de acierto de 98,95% para el año 2010, de 98,82% para el año 2011 y de 98,99% para la predicción realizada para el año 2012. Conclusiones: Se establecieron órdenes matemáticos a partir de la caminata al azar probabilista, estableciendo predicciones prácticamente deterministas en un contexto acausal del número de personas viviendo con VIH, logrando lo que podría ser de aplicación a las decisiones de salud pública, como método de evaluación de intervenciones.

Abstract Introduction: This is a study of the yearly dynamic of the HIV epidemic based on random walks has proven to be useful to take this highly variable phenomenon to a predictable behavior. Objective: Predict the behavior of the dynamic of the number of people living with HIV via a probabilistic random walk. Methodology: The yearly value of people living with HIV worldwide was analyzed from 1990 to 2009, based on probability spaces produced with a probabilistic random walk, and then, developed the prediction of the yearly value of people living with HIV for 2010, 2011 and 2012. Results: The yearly volume of people living with HIV was predicted with a 98.95% success rate in 2010, 98.82% in 2011 and 98.99% for the 2012 prediction. Conclusions: Mathematical orders were established based on the probabilistic random walk, establishing practically deterministic predictions of the number of people living with HIV which could be useful for public health decisions and to evaluate interventions.

Resumo Introdução: O estudo da dinâmica anual da epidemia do HIV a partir do passeio aleatório tem se mostrado útil para trazer este fenômeno altamente variável a um comportamento previsível. Objetivo: Predizer o comportamento da dinâmica do número de pessoas vivendo com HIV. através da caminhada aleatória probabilística. Metodologia: Analisaram-se os valores anuais das pessoas vivendo globalmente com HIV de 1990 a 2009, a partir dos espaços de probabilidade gerados com o passeio aleatório probabilístico, para posteriormente desenvolver a predição do valor anual das pessoas que vivem com o HIV pelos anos 2010, 2011 y 2012. Resultados: Os valores anuais das pessoas vivendo com HIV foram previstos com uma taxa de sucesso de 98,95% para o ano de 2010, de 98,82% para o ano de 2011 e de 98,99% para a previsão feita para o ano de 2012. Conclusões: Ordens matemáticas foram estabelecidas a partir do passeio probabilístico aleatório, estabelecendo predições praticamente determinísticas do número de pessoas vivendo com HIV, o que poderia ser útil para decisões em Saúde Pública e para a avaliação de intervenções.