What is the sensitivity and specificity of the peer review process?

In this paper, we introduce the concepts of sensitivity and specificity to mathematically describe the accuracy of the peer review process. Sensitivity refers to the probability that the final decision for a manuscript would be acceptance, provided the manuscript meets the journal standards required for publication (i.e., true positive rate). Specificity refers to the probability that the final decision would be rejection, provided the work does not meet the standards required for publication (i.e., true negative rate). Therefore, in the peer review process, sensitivity measures the ability to correctly accept manuscripts that meet the required standards (true positives) and specificity measures the ability to correctly reject manuscripts that do not meet those quality standards required for publication (true negatives). Sensitivity and specificity values can inform the editor under what conditions the outcome of a peer review process becomes more precise and, therefore, if this does not occur, when the editor must improve the analysis involved in processing the information received from reviewers' reports. Sensitivity and specificity understood in this way can promote the ethical conduct of peer review processes and improve the validity of manuscript editorial decisions.

The Game Between a Biased Reviewer and His Editor.

This paper shows that, for a large range of parameters, the journal editor prefers to delegate the choice to review the manuscript to the biased referee. If the peer review process is informative and the review reports are costly for the reviewers, even biased referees with extreme scientific preferences may choose to become informed about the manuscript's quality. On the contrary, if the review process is potentially informative but the reviewer reports are not costly for the referees, the biased reviewer has no incentive to become informed about the manuscript. Furthermore, if the reports are costly for referees but the peer review processes are not potentially informative, the biased reviewers will never become informed. In this paper, we also present a web resource that helps editors to experiment with the review process as a device for information transmission.