Applying early warning indicators to predict critical transitions in a lake undergoing multiple changes.

Lakes are dynamic ecosystems that can transition among stable states. Since ecosystem-scale transitions can be detrimental and difficult to reverse, being able to predict impending critical transitions in state variables has become a major area of research. However, not all transitions are detrimental, and there is considerable interest in better evaluating the success of management interventions to support adaptive management strategies. Here, we retrospectively evaluated the agreement between time series statistics (i.e., standard deviation, autocorrelation, skewness, and kurtosis-also known as early warning indicators) and breakpoints in state variables in a lake (Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada) that has improved from a state of eutrophication. Long-term (1980 to 2019) monitoring data collected fortnightly throughout the ice-free season were used to evaluate historical changes in 15 state variables (e.g., dissolved organic carbon, phosphorus, chlorophyll a) and multivariate-derived time series at three monitoring stations (shallow, middepth, deep) in Lake Simcoe. Time series results from the two deep-water stations indicate that over this period Lake Simcoe transitioned from an algal-dominated state toward a state with increased water clarity (i.e., Secchi disk depth) and silica and lower nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations, which coincided with both substantial management intervention and the establishment of invasive species (e.g., Dreissenid mussels). Consistent with improvement, Secchi depth at the deep-water stations demonstrated expected trends in statistical indicators prior to identified breakpoints, whereas total phosphorus and chlorophyll a revealed more nuanced patterns. Overall, state variables were largely found to yield inconsistent trends in statistical indicators, so many breakpoints were likely not reflective of traditional bifurcation critical transitions. Nevertheless, statistical indicators of state variable time series may be a valuable tool for the adaptive management and long-term monitoring of lake ecosystems, but we call for more research within the domain of early warning indicators to establish a better understanding of state variable behavior prior to lake changes.

Ex Vivo Normothermic Perfusion of Human Upper Limbs.

BACKGROUND: Ischemia-reperfusion injury remains a primary concern in upper extremity transplantation. Ex vivo normothermic perfusion (EVNP) enables near-physiological organ preservation, avoiding the deleterious effects of hypoxia and cooling. We investigated the effectiveness of human limb EVNP compared with static cold storage (SCS). METHODS: Twenty human upper extremities were procured. Ten were perfused at 38 °C with an oxygenated red blood cell-based solution, and contralateral limbs served as SCS control (4 °C). EVNP was terminated with systolic arterial pressure ≥115 mm Hg, compartment fullness, or a 20% decline in oxygen saturation. Weight, contractility, compartment pressure, tissue oxygen saturation, and uptake rates were assessed. Perfusate fluid dynamics, gases, electrolytes, and metabolites were measured. Myocyte injury scores and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis were performed. RESULTS: EVNP duration was 41.6 ± 9.4 h. Vascular resistance averaged 173.0 ± 29.4 mm Hg × min/L. Weight change and compartment pressures were 0.4 ± 12.2% ( P = 0.21) and 21.7 ± 15.58 mm Hg ( P = 0.003), respectively. Arterial and venous carbon dioxide partial pressure, oxygen saturation, and pH were 509.5 ± 91.4 mm Hg, 15.7 ± 30.2 mm Hg, 87.4 ± 11.4%, and 7.3 ± 0.2, respectively. Oxygen uptake rates averaged 5.7 ± 2.8 mL/min/g. Lactate reached 20 mmol/L after 15 (interquartile range = 6) h. Limb contractility was preserved for 30.5 (interquartile range = 15.8) h ( P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with perfusate potassium (ρ = -0.7, P < 0.001). Endpoint myocyte injury scores were 28.9 ± 11.5% (EVNP) and 90.2 ± 11.8% (SCS) ( P < 0.001). A significant increase in taurine ( P = 0.002) and decrease in tryptophan ( P = 0.002) were detected. Infrared thermography and indocyanine green angiography confirmed the presence of peripheral perfusion. CONCLUSIONS: EVNP can overcome the limitations of cold preservation by extending preservation times, enabling limb quality assessment, and allowing limb reconditioning before transplantation.

Metabolic Profiling of Skeletal Muscle During Ex-Vivo Normothermic Limb Perfusion.

INTRODUCTION: Ex vivo normothermic limb perfusion (EVNLP) provides several advantages for the preservation of limbs following amputation: the ability to maintain oxygenation and temperature of the limb close to physiological values, a perfusion solution providing all necessary nutrients at optimal concentrations, and the ability to maintain physiological pH and electrolytes. However, EVNLP cannot preserve the organ viability infinitely. We identified evidence of mitochondrial injury (swelling, elongation, and membrane disruption) after 24 hours of EVNLP of human upper extremities. The goal of this study was to identify metabolic derangements in the skeletal muscle during EVNLP. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourteen human upper extremities were procured from organ donors after family consent. Seven limbs underwent EVNLP for an average of 41.6 ± 9.4 hours, and seven contralateral limbs were preserved at 4°C for the same amount of time. Muscle biopsies were performed at 24 hours of perfusion, both from the EVNLP and control limbs. Perturbations in the metabolic profiles of the muscle during EVNLP were determined via untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (MS) operated in positive and negative electrospray ionization modes, over a mass range of 50 to 750 Da. The data were deconvoluted using the XCMS software and further statistically analyzed using the in-house statistical package, MetaboLyzer. Putative identification of metabolites using exact mass within ±7 ppm mass error and MS/MS spectral matching to the mzCloud spectral library were performed via Compound Discoverer v.2.1 (Thermo Scientific, Fremont, CA, USA). We further validated the identity of candidate metabolites by matching the fragmentation pattern of these metabolites to those of their reference pure chemicals. A nonparametric Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare EVNLP and control group spectral features. Differences were considered significantly different when P-value < 0.05. RESULTS: We detected over 13,000 spectral features of which 58 met the significance criteria with biologically relevant putative identifications. Furthermore we were able to confirm the identities of the ions taurine (P-value: 0.002) and tryptophan (P-value: 0.002), which were among the most significantly perturbed ions at 24 hours between the experimental and control groups. Metabolites belonging to the following pathways were the most perturbed at 24 hours: neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction (P-values: 0.031 and 0.036) and amino acid metabolism, including tyrosine and tryptophan metabolism (P-values: 0.015, 0.002, and 0.017). Taurine abundance decreased and tryptophan abundance increased at 24 hours. Other metabolites also identified at 24 hours included phenylalanine, xanthosine, and citric acid (P-values: 0.002, 0.002, and 0.0152). DISCUSSION: This study showed presence of active metabolism during EVNLP and metabolic derangement toward the end of perfusion, which correlated with detection of altered mitochondrial structure, swelling, and elongation.

Stroke and conversion to high risk in children screened with transcranial Doppler ultrasound during the STOP study.

The Stroke Prevention Trial in Sickle Cell Anemia (STOP) was a randomized multicenter controlled trial comparing prophylactic blood transfusion with standard care in sickle cell anemia (SCA) children aged 2 to 16 years selected for high stroke risk by transcranial Doppler (TCD). More than 2000 children were screened with TCD to identify the 130 high-risk children who entered the randomized trial. A total of 5613 TCD studies from 2324 children were evaluated. We also collected information on stroke. We describe the changes in TCD with repeated testing and report the outcome without transfusion in the STOP screened cohort. Risk of stroke was higher with abnormal TCD than with normal or conditional TCD (P <.001) or inadequate TCD (P =.002), and risk with conditional TCD was higher than with normal TCD (P <.001). Repeated TCD in 1215 children showed that the condition of 9.4% of children became abnormal during observation. Younger patients and those with higher initial flow velocities were most likely to convert to abnormal TCDs. Screening in STOP confirmed the predictive value of TCD for stroke. Substantial differences in the probability of conversion to abnormal TCD were observed, with younger children and those with higher velocity more likely to have an abnormal TCD with rescreening.